How should Poland pursue post-WWI eastern conflicts?

Nietzsche

Banned
I'm going to have to slip in here and say: not necessarily. Stalin isn't a gambling warmonger like Hitler was... he is an opportunist. He attacked Finland in 1940 because he recognized that Western Europe was too busy fighting Germany to stop him. He was probably planning to attack Germany by '42/'43 because he recognized that Nazi Germany was a threat to the USSR.

If Europe remains at peace throughout the entirety of Stalin's rule, then the chance of Stalin going on an international adventure in Eastern Europe is rather low*. That isn't to say that a general war between the USSR and the rest of Europe is impossible... as Finland in 1940 and the events of June 1941 show, Stalin can miscalculate rather disastrously. But what Stalin probably won't do is go all Red Alert on the west...

I'm quite sorry about the way I worded that. What I meant is that regardless of who starts it and why, there will be a general war against the Soviet Union. Whos' on whos' side is the only matter of contention.
 

MSZ

Banned
I am not suggest. I am stating. Most of Poland east of the Bug was conquered land where Poles at best were the 2nd, and more often the 3rd largest minority. If I was a Polish leader who wanted to insure future wars with Russia, the border chosen after WW1 was an excellent solution, that included so many Russian Orthodox Slavic people that any Russian leader be White or Red would look to free the oppressed/conquered people. The Polish record towards minorities was horrible and made Imperial German, the Hapsburgs or the Tsars look pretty good.

Not sure what your sources are, but if they state that there were ANY Russian majority or even plurality areas in eastern Poland then I call bullshit on them. Russians were non-existent in inter-war Poland apart from the White Russian diaspora which in turn emigrated to just about everywhere to some degree. Never did I hear or read about any Russian minority in Poland other than that.

For the second: LoL wut? The PLC was pretty much friggin heaven to minorities compared to contemporary Russia/Prussia/Austria. Sure, serfdom sucks, but at the time everyone had serfdom and obligations of Poland's neighbours were either just as harsh or harsher.

That being non-Polish in Poland wasn't as good as being Polish is certain. But I hardly think it sucked if so many jews emigrated there even during the worst nationalist periods. Poland could keep its minorities in check. Compared to the British Troubles, things hardly went out of hand more than they did in Northern Ireland, despite numbers suggesting that it should have been much worse.
 
I'm quite sorry about the way I worded that. What I meant is that regardless of who starts it and why, there will be a general war against the Soviet Union. Whos' on whos' side is the only matter of contention.

I agree with ObsessedNuker on this issue, the Stalinist USSR’s aggression is in my view highly overrated. Could you explain why Stalin going Red Alert on Europe is inevitable if nobody attacks him first?
 
Jews were clearly the largest majority east of Poland once the Slavs/Baltics are broken into Lithuanian, Polish, and Belarus (Eastern Slavic). (...) And it is clear that a honest man who was drawing up states based on ethnic groups would have created a Jewish state east of Poland taking much of the land past the Bug.

Get your facts straight bro. It is not clear because the Jews did not constitute a majority, or even a plurality, anywhere aside from small towns. If you disagree, provide us with sources.
 
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Jews were clearly the largest majority east of Poland once the Slavs/Baltics are broken into Lithuanian, Polish, and Belarus (Eastern Slavic). And these clearly did not identify themselves as one ethnic group based on the ethnic cleansing from OTL. The Jews being such a large minority that it makes it hard to form a Polish state is why the Poles were talking about the "Jewish Problem" and the "Jewish Question" early in WW1 and before. Now I know there are some self serving Polish census which the numbers are adjusted for political purposes, but when one looks at the total size of the population and the stats used by the various nations, it is clear their is a large Jewish plurality area in what became eastern Poland and Western Russia. And it is clear that a honest man who was drawing up states based on ethnic groups would have created a Jewish state east of Poland taking much of the land past the Bug.

This is very interesting. What would be the ethnic boundaries of your proposed Jewish state? Could you provide credible sources stating that the number of Jews living in that area was actually high enough to justify this? Poles speaking of a ‘Jewish Question’ is unsurprising – A minority of 10% of the population, relatively evenly distributed on Polish-speaking areas and beyond, certainly isn’t going to get ignored, and many did see it as a problem. But how did the Jews’ existence imperil that of the Polish state?
 
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Cook

Banned
But how did the Jews’ existence imperil that of the Polish state?
The same way that the smaller German Jewish population imperilled the Reich. The government concluded that they were vermin, therefore they had to be excluded from the government, civil service and army and from most private professions. There was even an ‘animal rights’ campaign to shut down Kosher butchers.
 

Nietzsche

Banned
I agree with ObsessedNuker on this issue, the Stalinist USSR’s aggression is in my view highly overrated. Could you explain why Stalin going Red Alert on Europe is inevitable if nobody attacks him first?

They don't need to be the ones to start it. However, while the USSR wasn't terribly aggressive, this is because it stood a chance still of having allies with more like-minded states, regardless of who they were. In any sort of unified German-Polish bloc, said bloc is likely to have at least the unspoken support of atleast Britain. And that war will have to happen, especially from the GP bloc's point of view. The longer they wait, the stronger the Soviets get, and that will only increase exponentially, while Germany and Poland will reach their plateaus very quickly all things considered.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
This is very interesting. What would be the ethnic boundaries of your proposed Jewish state? Could you provide credible sources stating that the number of Jews living in that area was actually high enough to justify this? Poles speaking of a ‘Jewish Question’ is unsurprising – A minority of 10% of the population, relatively evenly distributed on Polish-speaking areas and beyond, certainly isn’t going to get ignored, and many did see it as a problem. But how did the Jews’ existence imperil that of the Polish state?

Before we start the source game, you go first. Can you present sources show that there was not any areas with a 10% Jewish population?

Simple on existence of Polish state. If the Jews were counted, then the Poles generally would lack the majority/plurality east of the Bug need to justify the land being made a part of Poland. The rationale for a Poland being created required one to see Polish people living under foreign rulers as bad, but Jewish people living under Polish rulers as good.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Get your facts straight bro. It is not clear because the Jews did not constitute a majority, or even a plurality, anywhere aside from small towns. If you disagree, provide us with sources.

My facts are correct, and you are mistaken. Do you think calling me "bro" improves your argument?
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Not sure what your sources are, but if they state that there were ANY Russian majority or even plurality areas in eastern Poland then I call bullshit on them. Russians were non-existent in inter-war Poland apart from the White Russian diaspora which in turn emigrated to just about everywhere to some degree. Never did I hear or read about any Russian minority in Poland other than that.

For the second: LoL wut? The PLC was pretty much friggin heaven to minorities compared to contemporary Russia/Prussia/Austria. Sure, serfdom sucks, but at the time everyone had serfdom and obligations of Poland's neighbours were either just as harsh or harsher.

That being non-Polish in Poland wasn't as good as being Polish is certain. But I hardly think it sucked if so many jews emigrated there even during the worst nationalist periods. Poland could keep its minorities in check. Compared to the British Troubles, things hardly went out of hand more than they did in Northern Ireland, despite numbers suggesting that it should have been much worse.

You seem not to understand the difference in Russian Orthodox and Russian. Hint: It is similar to the difference between Roman Catholic and Roman.

On your LOL, and we are discussing Poland in 1920, not the PLC.

No, there was net loss of Jews out of Poland to German speaking areas in the 1920's.

You seem to be confusing the post 1933 era with the 1920's.
 
My facts are correct, and you are mistaken. Do you think calling me "bro" improves your argument?

but when one looks at the total size of the population and the stats used by the various nations, it is clear their (sic) is a large Jewish plurality area in what became eastern Poland and Western Russia. And it is clear that a honest man who was drawing up states based on ethnic groups would have created a Jewish state east of Poland taking much of the land past the Bug.

I don't need to improve my argument, because there is no argument here, it's like talking to a flatearther. Jews constituted around 10% of Poland's population of that period, of that around 3/4 lived in towns, and mostly in central Poland. In some provinces (Polesia, Volhynia), Jews were around 50% of total urban population, just remember that in eastern Poland of that period there are two cities worth the name, and most others were tiny. As of 1921 the mentioned Polesia had 2 "large" towns of 20k+ people, and 5 of 5-10k people. The rest was below 5 thousand inhabitants. How would this make them a plurality there is beyond me.

So, no, there is no way an "honest man" could create a viable Jewish state there. Not unless it would be composed entirely of downtown Pimpleton, Volhynia, pop. 2100. Arguing this, along with implying that East Prussian plebiscite results can be extrapolated to Greater Poland (!) shows that you have very little understanding of the time period and area discussed here.
 
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Before we start the source game, you go first. Can you present sources show that there was not any areas with a 10% Jewish population?

I never claimed that there were no areas where Jews made up 10% of the population. On the contrary, I used it as an approximation of their population in interwar Poland at large. If you understood otherwise, I must have not made myself clear enough in my post in which case I apologize, or you misunderstood me.

And I am still waiting for the source for your claim that there were sufficient populations of Jews in former east Poland to make them a plurality on a significant area. And remember: the area in question was not homogenous. Even if the Jews actually were more numerous then each of the Slavic nationalities, it still does not prove that they were not outnumbered by any one of them in different areas.

Simple on existence of Polish state. If the Jews were counted, then the Poles generally would lack the majority/plurality east of the Bug need to justify the land being made a part of Poland.

The Polish state can survive perfectly well with a border on the Curzon Line – even on the Vistula – as long as it’s the eastern boundary of course. Poles still lacked a majority (or even plurality) in the east in large regions (especially the southeast) according to their own censuses.
 
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MSZ

Banned
You seem not to understand the difference in Russian Orthodox and Russian. Hint: It is similar to the difference between Roman Catholic and Roman.

On your LOL, and we are discussing Poland in 1920, not the PLC.

No, there was net loss of Jews out of Poland to German speaking areas in the 1920's.

You seem to be confusing the post 1933 era with the 1920's.

The lack of commas confused me. But once again - why would Russia have a mandate to "liberate" people of Orthodox faith? What about the Uniates or Ukrainan Orthodox? Religion is important sure, but not as a strong "unificator" or "divisionator" as it was in the past. That Russia would have imperial ambitions towards expanding west is certain and religion is irrelevant - the Belarussians may worship Jedi faith, the Russians still would want to annex them. That is until they realize that those people aren't Russian and don't want to be part of Russia - annexing them being more trouble than worth.

Ok, then you are judging Poland treatment of minorities based on a time when a) it was at war and everyone suffered from it, including the Poles who lost probably the most people because of it b) it lacked a legal system that might have adressed the issue - In 1920 Poland didn't have a constitution and used the legal systems of Germany, Austria, Russia and Hungary to deal with them. So you are judging them based on a "history" that didn't exist. And even if you mean the post-war situation - please provide something making the Poles worse oppressors than the Germans/Austrians/Russians. In fact, provide something that makes them "oppressors" at all. Because franktly, I don't recall any population transfers/expulsion/deportations occuring there, or other attrocities. What was the name of the Polish secret police in the inter war period?

So overall, Poland expanding eastwards to a degree more less like OTL was very much acceptable and overall beneficial. It did not incorporate too many minorities for them to be net burden; it provided room for the result being acceptable by the Russians (in time, and preferably by the whites); it provided strategic depth for both a one-front war in either the east or west.
 
Whites weren't opposed to Polish independence, but wanted Poland within ethnic borders.
Even Denikin eventually accepted Poland as separate state,but on condition that the border will be based on Bug river.

The sticking points were East Galicia, which Russians wanted to keep as spoils of war and Chelmno province which was disputed before.

They also wanted Poland to be in a military alliance ensuring that it was close to Russian state.

In hindsight it was a better option, unfortunately not possible under Pilsudski.
You would need a POD earlier, perhaps his death and domination of Dmowski who was more pro-Russian and had experience from his years of service in Russia Duma in diplomacy with Russians.

I don't think there was need to press with anything else than Lviv region(maybe plebiscite) in exchange for support for Polish claims on Gdansk, Silesia and Masuria. The eastern regions were poor and underdeveloped and they dragged Polish state down. A more friendly Russia or even neutral one would be beneficial as well-it would mean that Poland would have continued access to its largest export market pre-WW1.

So in short-support Whites in exchange for support for Polish claims in the West, modified Curzon Line, gain Gdansk, most of Upper Silesia and Masuria. Establish alliance with Russian state, Czechoslovakia against German and Austrian claims.
Might be worth tempting Russians with East Prussia as warm water port-they had Konigsberg before once. And it would ensure their support for containing Germany.
 
Whites weren't opposed to Polish independence, but wanted Poland within ethnic borders.

Even Denikin eventually accepted Poland as separate state,but on condition that the border will be based on Bug river.

I was under the impression that most Whites, Denikin included, would not accept Polish independence. When was this 'eventually'?

And on a somewhat less related note, the Curzon Line was not the ethnic border of Poland.
 
I was under the impression that most Whites, Denikin included, would not accept Polish independence. When was this 'eventually'?

And on a somewhat less related note, the Curzon Line was not the ethnic border of Poland.

It was for Whites ;)
But that they weren't opposed to Polish independence isn't something secret. Even Russian Empire reluctantly accepted some form of autonomy.
In general Russians were more at ease with accepting Polish state.

A concise history of the Russian Revolution
Richard Pipes

Personally, the White commander and his political advisers were prepared to acknowledge Polish independence, but only within the borders Polish independence, but only within the borders of the so-called " Congress Poland" created by the Congress of Vienna in 181 5
Of course it concerns only borders with Russia, not western borders of Poland.
 
Except for some nuts, whites in general (including Denikin) accepted polish independence (experience of 100 years of conspiration and uprisings made an impression), only issue to be discused was border-Russians wanted Congress Kingdom border (Bug river) and Eastern Galizia, moderate claims compared to German ones. Alliance with white Russia is best option for interwar Poland (not that it is excellent choice but other are far worse)
 
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