How powerful would a united, developed Carribean be?

So a little alternate history question here. Its going to be a bit vague since it requires a lot of butterflies to make work and I'm a bit more interested in the end result then the process.

Lets say that sometime in the past some island in the Caribbean had an American style revolution where the wealthy and educated land owners took over. Over the next century or three these land owners managed to take control of the rest of the Caribbean (and maybe some mainland bits in Florida, the Yucatan, Panama, etc.). Assuming most of their land and population is in the islands and a roughly similar social development to the US how powerful could such a nation become?


I'd imagine early on they'd have a few cash crops such as sugar but once industrialisation kicks in this'll become less important. But would it be enough to fund a large merchant marine and navy and be able to levy that against industrial giants. There's a bit of oil in the Gulf I guess but that would have to wait until the twentieth century; so it'd be a question of whether or not the resources they have allow them to be a power in the nineteenth century. Of course being comprised of Islands they could definitely focus more on navy, but they'd need plenty of steel and coal to power ironclads and their descendants at the end of the century. I'm not sure how much there'd be in the Caribbean. According to a quick Google search there are minerals http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_Caribbean on a few islands. So they might keep up.


Of course other factors include population and rivals. I'd say to keep it simple have the rivals be the same as OTL. No idea on the population though.

Anyone willing to help answer this question?
 

Deleted member 67076

Getting the Caribbean to unite would mean pissing off France, Britain and Spain. No one is that suicidal.

And the only plausible revolts I can see happening are in Cuba, Haiti or Santo Domingo. No other places have the population to throw off colonial forces.

A united Caribbean is very, very hard.
 
Ja. Getting a united Caribbean is really, really tough - at least if it unites itself, which you seem to want.

Its future trajectory is going to depend massively on HOW that happens.

A Haiti style 'government' spread across multiple islands would be very different from a 20th century Caribbean Union, which would, in turn, be different from ....

Hmmm...
How about:
During the Napoleonic wars, the Spanish territories in the Caribbean revolt against Spain, like the South American countries did. Britain supports such revolts (again, like South America) because Spain is allied to Napoleon. If and when Spain switches sides, it's too late (again, like...).
Meantime, the white and creole leaders of these revolutions realize that if Spain attacks them piecemeal, they will be easy prey to a reconquest, so they form a Caribbean Union, of these independent island republics. They make treaties with Britain - granting Britain trade and commercial access in exchange for some protection from a Spain that is re-establishing contact with its colonies, and trying to re-impose order.

It may be that this union has to guarantee Spain a share of the sugar profits, say, so that they get some of the benefits of owning the place, without the expenses of holding it down.

Miraculously, this Union holds together (unlike e.g. Gran Colombia), and the elite decide they need universities to send their sons to, as sending them to Spain would reinforce the 'colonial' nature of their fledgeling state. So gradually, institutions like Universities, opera houses and museums spring up. Cuba is the 800 pound gorilla of this union, and has as many of these institutions as the rest of the union combined, probably, but precisely because Cuba is SO dominant, the capital is placed in Santo Domingo, and about half of the remaining of those institutions are there.

A massive civil war in Haiti which results in thousands fleeing across the border into the Dominican Republic, followed by troops from both sides, leads this Union to put down the revolt and install peacekeeping forces to create stability there. These peacekeepers are not precisely welcomed - but each side in the war would rather have them in charge than the other side, and an uneasy balance prevails. Haitiens grow used to the stability the Union is providing, and (eventually) ask to join.

When Sweden and Denmark, for instance, divest themselves of their colonies, it makes more sense for the Union to buy them than e.g. the US.

Warm relations with Britain lead to ties between the Union and British colonies, inspiring THEM to uplift themselves, and creating a sense of common Caribbean identity. Eventually, the various British colonies are granted responsible government, and are allowed to become associate members of the Union - but London still conducts all extra-Caribbean foreign affairs and defense, for instance, for several more decades.

When decolonization happens, Jamaica and the other British colonies already have relations with the Union, and it is natural for them to join. Similarly, the French and Dutch colonies do, too, aside from a few islands that stay with the mother country.
 
When Sweden and Denmark, for instance, divest themselves of their colonies, it makes more sense for the Union to buy them than e.g. the US.
I'd still think the US would buy them, a United Caribbean makes it more important for the US to have bases in the region, especially as Gitmo being a US base isn't going to happen in that case
 
POD has to be earlry 1500s with the other European nations not getting in on Caribbean so that only Spain controls it then you just make the Viceroyalty of Cuba
 
Its future trajectory is going to depend massively on HOW that happens.

Well I said I don't really care much about specifics since I'm more interested in how much influence it'd have on the world stage but if that's necessary here's a rough draft.

But if I was doing a timeline I'd have the POD set back to when it was first colonised so that most of the population would be culturally inclined to stick together and there'd be an already established population base with decent wealth and education. So basically modelling it on the US.

I think the idea would be that one culture group manages to establish a fairly big population on most of the islands fairly early on. Especially on the bigger islands. My personal inclination is England but Spain or Portugal seems more likely. Lets go with Spain. So over the next century or two there'd be a settler population that'd grow to have a common identity based off of plantations and maritime trade and a mutual dislike of the feudal Spanish Colonial policy. Eventually Spain would be weak enough that a revolt would be viable. And it'd make it more difficult if the whole Caribbean revolted at once and seized all the naval vessels they could. I could imagine this happening in the late 18th century similar to the American Revolution.

The problems would be other powers seizing colonies from the Spanish. But I guess if those colonies still had a large Spanish descended population it shouldn't be too difficult to take them back.

Its the nineteenth century which becomes more complicated. Would this new nation be able to sustain itself without going into the mainland too much? The later twentieth century should be easier with oil assuming they can manage to keep naval dominance. But if an analogous US formed they'd have a pretty large rival. Same with a united Gran Colombia type deal.
 
Maybe have the Spanish gain all the big islands and the avoid slavery. The legacy of a dominant former slave population is inevitably going to be entrenched poverty and political instability.
 

Deleted member 67076

Well I said I don't really care much about specifics since I'm more interested in how much influence it'd have on the world stage but if that's necessary here's a rough draft.

But if I was doing a timeline I'd have the POD set back to when it was first colonised so that most of the population would be culturally inclined to stick together and there'd be an already established population base with decent wealth and education. So basically modelling it on the US.
This needs a POD in the 1400s, possible by not having Colombus show up.

I think the idea would be that one culture group manages to establish a fairly big population on most of the islands fairly early on. Especially on the bigger islands. My personal inclination is England but Spain or Portugal seems more likely.
Judging by OTL, England would lead to less homogenization, not more.

Lets go with Spain. So over the next century or two there'd be a settler population that'd grow to have a common identity based off of plantations and maritime trade and a mutual dislike of the feudal Spanish Colonial policy.
Ok there are several problems here. 1) Spain was really restrictive on who settled and how many were able too. In order to change this you need to drastically weaken the feudal policies of Spain, which will make a dislike of Spanish policies that lead them to revolt.

2) Colonies in the Caribbean were interestingly enough organized on a federal structure, not a centralized one that leads to different cultural developments. Cuba was a plantation economy, Hispaniola a ranching based colony, etc. To foster a common identity, you need to group all the colonies into a Viceroyalty but at the same time make it flexible enough that the islands have autonomy to pursue the best economic policies. This is far harder than it looks.

You really need something like a Bourbon Reform happening in the 15-1600s and for a different settlement policy in general, which likely means the Hapsburgs must not get in charge of Spain.

The problems would be other powers seizing colonies from the Spanish. But I guess if those colonies still had a large Spanish descended population it shouldn't be too difficult to take them back.
The thing about the Caribbean is that its easy to seize but hard to hold. If the other colonial powers attempted to take the islands I can see insurgents driving them off pretty easily if there was a large enough population base already in the island.

Its the nineteenth century which becomes more complicated. Would this new nation be able to sustain itself without going into the mainland too much? The later twentieth century should be easier with oil assuming they can manage to keep naval dominance. But if an analogous US formed they'd have a pretty large rival. Same with a united Gran Colombia type deal.
Yes. Even if it was just mostly Sugar plantations, it would initially make more money than the US did just off those sales. As a French Colony, Haiti made more money than all of the Southern Colonies combined. The money from sugar and ranching can be used to fund infrastructure developments and the expansion of ports. The need for a navy will thus give necessity to develop a decent shipbuilding industry and what not.

A unified Caribbean would probably be able to buy what it needs ala Japan.
 
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