How powerful would a non-partitioned India be in 2020?

Femto

Banned
I believe India could, in the best case scenario, envelop Ceylon and Burma. But let's be conservative and imagine a scenario where there's simply no partition and India keeps both halves of Pakistan, with Ceylon and Burma as independent states. How powerful would they be in the present day? Could they be stronger than China is today? If so, would the US see them as a threat if the USSR still falls?
 
Depends on the circumstances of it's Independence and who is at the helm. If India is lucky enough to win autonomy as a dominion under motilal nehru in the 20s, we could plausibly have a highly developed country of over one and a half billion Indians. Needless to say, it would surpass the measly Americans by far, perhaps have a GDP equivalent to the rest of the rest of the world combined.

It could also have emerged as a battered republic from a mutiny or revolt, perhaps led by Bose. It would have no friends and a hardline communist government. Economic and military projection capabilities would be pathetic for a country of its size, and still it would have the largest population in the world and be a (grudgingly) respected great power.

When you have a quarter of the world's population at your disposal, anything could happen.
 
Assuming it remains fairly stable, it would most likely be more powerful than IOTL.

TTL's India's main rival would probably be China. It's possible that the USSR may court India ITTL.
 
Unity just means it now has greater Hindu Muslim tensions to deal within. Probably leading to Pakistani war of independence in the 70s
 
Unity just means it now has greater Hindu Muslim tensions to deal within. Probably leading to Pakistani war of independence in the 70s
No. Unity would mean LESS Hindu Muslim tensions not more. The partition is the biggest reason for Hindu alienation from secularism. Millions were killed in it. How would preventing it lead to more sectarian conflict?
 

Femto

Banned
Maybe if Gandhi died earlier and the independence was a more neutral movement religiously this would be possible?
 
No. Unity would mean LESS Hindu Muslim tensions not more. The partition is the biggest reason for Hindu alienation from secularism. Millions were killed in it. How would preventing it lead to more sectarian conflict?
You think the killing in the partition emerged from nothing?

Also unity means a Congress govt vs a Muslim opposition. How long does Congress remain committed to secularism?
 
You think the killing in the partition emerged from nothing?

Also unity means a Congress govt vs a Muslim opposition. How long does Congress remain committed to secularism?
No, the killings were a natural consequence of moving millions of people from their homes to unknown lands. People will obviously blame the other side for the troubles.

Of course, not everything will be perfect. You can expect a few Direct Action Day type riots in the bigger cities, but India post Independence wasn't completely peaceful.

Congress vs ML is not necessary. If instead of Nehru, Jinnah could get a deal to become the prime minister the Congress would be secular and not have ML as the main opposition.
 
No, the killings were a natural consequence of moving millions of people from their homes to unknown lands. People will obviously blame the other side for the troubles.

Of course, not everything will be perfect. You can expect a few Direct Action Day type riots in the bigger cities, but India post Independence wasn't completely peaceful.

Congress vs ML is not necessary. If instead of Nehru, Jinnah could get a deal to become the prime minister the Congress would be secular and not have ML as the main opposition.
Wouldnt that trigger riots by itself ?
 
Wouldnt that trigger riots by itself ?
Sure, it may trigger some riots. However, it would entrench the INC's secular credentials as undeniable and prevent a disaster on the scale of the partition.
Most likely the riots will be tiny compared to stuff otl faced. Hindu on Muslim violence is generally smaller in scale than Muslim on Hindu violence by virtue of Hindus being the safe majority. Compare Direct Action Day and Noakhali riots to the much tamer anti-muslim riots.
 
Can you elaborate more on this? I don't see why would they be weaker.
Modern India works as well as it does, to the extent that it does, by being relatively limited in its frontier territory, and, excluding Kashmir and Jammu, that frontier territory either being Hindu, animist, or Christianized. Excepting the Nepalese, Tamil, and some of the Zomi people, its ethnic divides are almost entirely internal. I'd argue that India would do fine with Muslim majority Bangladesh, due in large part to historical and cultural links to West Bengal, and the still significant Hindu and Buddhist presence in the former East Pakistan. Sindh, with its historical links to Rajasthan and Gujarat might do fine, especially without the population transfers triggered by Partition. Pakistani Punjab is a bit dicier. Should the province keep its borders more or less pre-partition, you'd have a state approaching Uttar Pradesh in population, and, therefore clout, with a Muslim minority in the heart of a mostly Hindu country. The communities can, do, and have gotten along, but the religious strife that has occurred in India in OTL could be greater, and weigh more heavily in the politics of the Union. This leaves alone the total basketcases that would be Balochistan and Khyber Puktunkwha (then divided I know) that are susceptible to manipulation by charlatans and religious extremists in OTL with those areas in a state that is constitutionally and overwhelmingly Muslims potentially feeling greater alienation under the secular. more Hindu-influenced rule of further away New Delhi....
 
This leaves alone the total basketcases that would be Balochistan and Khyber Puktunkwha (then divided I know) that are susceptible to manipulation by charlatans and religious extremists in OTL with those areas in a state that is constitutionally and overwhelmingly Muslims potentially feeling greater alienation under the secular. more Hindu-influenced rule of further away New Delhi....
I dont know about Baluchistan, but Khyber Puktunkhwa was a Congress stronghold until right before the partition. Most Pashtuns where against the partition.
 
I dont know about Baluchistan, but Khyber Puktunkhwa was a Congress stronghold until right before the partition. Most Pashtuns where against the partition.
In the postwar Belgian referendum on the monarchy, the Flemings were for preserving it, while the Walloons were largely opposed. Today, the sentiments are largely reversed.
 
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