How powerful could an earlier industrializing Japan have been?

For known historical reasons Japan's industrialization happened about a century after that of its European and the US contemporaries, however when push came to shove it caught up quite quickly.

What if Japan industrialized around the turn of the 19th century rather than towards the end of it? Would it have potentially superseded the other nations by the time the 20th century approached?
 

Toraach

Banned
At the start of the 19th century only Britain was somewhat industrialized, but I think that the industrial revolution even there gained speed in 19th century. So Japan with industrialization strated in 1870th wasn't that behind.

No, Japan won't superspeed other nations even with three or for more decades of industrialization. The modern Japan, as we know is the result of specific conditions which happened after the 2WW.
 
Japan was still very poor compared to the developed parts on the West by 1913. Their GDP per capita at that point was 25% of the US or Britain’s, 40% of Germany or France, and 55% of Italy.

If Japan can reach the level of France or Germany, with their population base of 52 million (which might be higher with an earlier industrial revolution) and they can be a huge power. They have a chance to acquire Korea and parts of China much earlier, Alaska, the Philippines, and other areas. They might even be able to get a majority of the population in Korea and parts of China if they can take them two generations earlier.
 
Well I agree that probably couldn't industrialize a century earlier, modernizing isn't exactly a binary thing.
They could certainly do the whole "open up and start modernizing" thing a century earlier. Meaning they could reach their "developement level relative to the European average" a century earlier in terms of econmy, military, etc. Which means after about the same time, that in OTL they had caught up enough to launch the Russio-Japanese War the Napoleonic Wars would be raging. Now that sure sounds like some nice timing, especially if they are like OTL friends with the Brits.
 
Well I agree that probably couldn't industrialize a century earlier, modernizing isn't exactly a binary thing.
They could certainly do the whole "open up and start modernizing" thing a century earlier. Meaning they could reach their "developement level relative to the European average" a century earlier in terms of econmy, military, etc. Which means after about the same time, that in OTL they had caught up enough to launch the Russio-Japanese War the Napoleonic Wars would be raging. Now that sure sounds like some nice timing, especially if they are like OTL friends with the Brits.

I wonder if the Qianlong Emperor will have thoughts on this.
 
For known historical reasons Japan's industrialization happened about a century after that of its European and the US contemporaries, however when push came to shove it caught up quite quickly.

What if Japan industrialized around the turn of the 19th century rather than towards the end of it? Would it have potentially superseded the other nations by the time the 20th century approached?

Hardly, because geology. Japan isen't going to be industralizing very well without a colonial Empire from which to draw from, because as a young volcanic island she lacks the kinds of quality iron and coal reserves domestically that make the rapid development of heavy industry possible. Its important to remember Japan built her industry on "do-dads"/light industry, which isen't really in nearly as high a demand at the start of the 19th century compared to the end.
 
Hardly, because geology. Japan isen't going to be industralizing very well without a colonial Empire from which to draw from, because as a young volcanic island she lacks the kinds of quality iron and coal reserves domestically that make the rapid development of heavy industry possible. Its important to remember Japan built her industry on "do-dads"/light industry, which isen't really in nearly as high a demand at the start of the 19th century compared to the end.

I agree somewhat with the first but disagree with the second point FIllyofDelphi
Japan does lack the easily accessible coal/iron of OTL UK, However Korea has lots.........
Japan built her industrial base based on imported resources when the metal heavy, young volcanic islands of Japan could not provide of course,
secondly, Japan post WW2 built her industry up using exports of both do do-dads and shipbuilding (not something that does not require heavy industry) and supplying the American war effort in Korea (plus the occupation forces as well)
my own point to add is that the one thing you need as well as a merchant class for colonialism is a militarized society......... (they might not have the right weapons however for a load of cool rare Japanese goods and guff the Uk would be more than willing to sell them lots especially after the Napoleonic wars) plus the Japanese have a history of taking foreign examples of tech/culture and owning them toot suite such as early matchlock muskets or earlier Confucianism. the best thing of course would be for their invasions by Japan in 1592-97 to be successful before they lapsed into their isolation phase again (assuming they held off the Manchus of course)
 

Maoistic

Banned
A few Asia-Pacific territories, but nothing so different from actual history as Japan is already surrounded by world powers left and right, diminishing its expansionist potential and greatly limiting its military development. I think had Japan actually succeeded in its invasion of Korea in the 1590s, held off the Manchus that way and then reverse engineer the naval, gunpowder, mining and agricultural technology of Spain and Portugal, and later Netherlands and England, using the resources of its new possessions, then Japan may actually have been a true world power, rather than just the regional hegemony of Asia-Pacific.
 
I agree somewhat with the first but disagree with the second point FIllyofDelphi
Japan does lack the easily accessible coal/iron of OTL UK, However Korea has lots.........
Japan built her industrial base based on imported resources when the metal heavy, young volcanic islands of Japan could not provide of course,
secondly, Japan post WW2 built her industry up using exports of both do do-dads and shipbuilding (not something that does not require heavy industry) and supplying the American war effort in Korea (plus the occupation forces as well)
my own point to add is that the one thing you need as well as a merchant class for colonialism is a militarized society......... (they might not have the right weapons however for a load of cool rare Japanese goods and guff the Uk would be more than willing to sell them lots especially after the Napoleonic wars) plus the Japanese have a history of taking foreign examples of tech/culture and owning them toot suite such as early matchlock muskets or earlier Confucianism. the best thing of course would be for their invasions by Japan in 1592-97 to be successful before they lapsed into their isolation phase again (assuming they held off the Manchus of course)

We aren't talking about post-WWII industrialization though; we're talking about an early 19th century model of industrialization, which is much more heavy industry intensive. This would especially be the case in an early industrializing Japan, who would lack a large international source of machine parts from long established European industries or a large market on which to dump her production due to a lower development of bulk international trade and a better positioned and more comparatively productive and stronger China (The later factor would be key in limiting Japanese penetration into mainland Asia for raw materials)
 
Japan was still very poor compared to the developed parts on the West by 1913. Their GDP per capita at that point was 25% of the US or Britain’s, 40% of Germany or France, and 55% of Italy.

If Japan can reach the level of France or Germany, with their population base of 52 million (which might be higher with an earlier industrial revolution) and they can be a huge power. They have a chance to acquire Korea and parts of China much earlier, Alaska, the Philippines, and other areas. They might even be able to get a majority of the population in Korea and parts of China if they can take them two generations earlier.
What if it was China who industrialized? With the level of Italy.
 
They would be by far the strongest in the world then.
What would they be able to do in Japan’s position in World War 2? Since they are an industrial power on par with the United States.

They also have Korea and Kyushu Island before the war, akin to where Japan annexed Korea and Taiwan.

Also they don’t have any concessions to the foreign powers.
 

xsampa

Banned
People tend to ignore that Japan could have been also deindustrialized relatively early on by a colonizing or vassalizing power. Although Japan had the advantages of a sense of “national” identity and proto-industrial activities like textile mills, it was weak and highly decentralized before 1857, with various lords holding power over regional areas. This weakness would have allowed foreign colonizers to use divide and conquer tactics to occupy Japan piece by piece. Deindustrialization would have accompanied colonization because it would have deprived Japan of the economic means of power. Given that Japan’s industrialization was dependent on the successful establishment of the Meiji state and the lack of foreign colonizers, the industrialization of Japan is not inevitable
 
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