How possible is a medieval unified Italy?

Considering any POD from the "Early middle ages" to the late XV century, how possible it is to stabilish an independent consolidated kingdom in most of Italy? It's inevitable for the peninsula to be split among petty duchies and city-states?

I'll guess the most apparent changes could be a stronger Kingdom of Lombardy or a post-Charlemagne one. I don't mind if this kingdom miss Rome itself or parts of southern Italy because of the obvious implications of it, but the idea is that by 1500 they are as intrinsic to Europe's existence as we know as France and England.

A super papacy seems very unlikely, but interesting if you can work this out.
 
Further conquest under the Visconti? I think Gian Galeazzo died while trying to take Firenze(correct me on that one) If he took that as well he would definitely in a good position to take on the maritime powers as well and at that point you have a northern Italy, also wasn't there a TL with this premise in this forum?
 
It isn't inevitable, but there were specific forces working against it.

Like after the Investiture Controversy with the Holy Roman Emperors, the Popes actually enacted a policy of opposing any temporal power uniting a great deal of Italy or obtaining a great deal of influence except if it was the Pope's themselves, as such a power would threaten the Papal States. Throughout Frederick I's, Henry VI's, and Frederick II's reigns as Holy Roman Emperor the Pope's attempted to encourage the Italian possession in northern Italy to cause trouble. They fought against the formation of the Kingdom of Sicily by Roger II. When the Hohestaufens united the Holy Roman Empire and Kingdom of Sicily in a personal union in Henry VI's reign, the papacy assumed the active policy of breaking it. After Emperor Henry VI's died and the succession was disputed, the papacy first endorsed first Otto IV, who made the promise to give up the possession of Sicily and Naples. When he became Emperor and reneged on that promise, the next pope sided with Frederick II. Except as Frederick II grew up in Italy and viewed himself more as the King of Sicily/Romans than King of Germans, he ended up afterwards clashing with the Popes the most. The Popes excommunicated him, actively encouraged the northern Italian cities to rebel, and organized crusades against the Kingdom of Sicily. After Frederick's death, the papacy basically 'gave' right to the kingdom of Sicily to those they believed might be able to take it from Frederick II's illegitimate son, Manfred. First Edmund of Lancaster, and then Prince Charles of France, or later Charles I of Sicily.

The Popes also occasionally attempted to extend the Pope's temporal authority outside of the Papal States. Pope Innocent IV attempted to force King Manfred of Sicily to acknowledge the Pope as his temporal suzerain, actually succeeding...for six months. The frequent different views of the successive popes, their focuses, along with the different factions in the church meant few really wanted the church ruling in secular matters except symbolically. So the Popes weren't capable of ruling Italy themselves, while also preventing anyone else from ruling Italy.

Another factor working against Italian unification was the urban and economic development of Italy. Many of the rich cities in northern Italy were ruled by semi-democratic town councils or rough equivalents, often by the richest and most prosperous merchants. This situation is what helped craft the trade wars that so dictated much of Italian History after 1200. So not only did all these cities come to view their neighbors as rivals, but unification threatened the economic warfare that allowed the most prosperous cities to be so. Just as nobility disliked the end of private wars and feuding central monarchs tended to advocate,the Italian city-states would oppose any force attempting to achieve this. By contrast southern Italy in Naples and Sicily rapidly fell behind in economic development, partly through geographical factors but also the frequent wars and passing of the kingship between different families through papal interference. So you wouldn't see the unification through a push from the south.

This means the Popes basically prevented Italian Unification in the High Middle Ages, and the decisive political and economic situation prevented it in the Late Middle Ages. Now there are exceptions that could have broken this. As stated above, Gian Galeazzo Visconti had quite a string of conquests in the late 14th century and the immediate turn of the century. However I'm unsure of the viability of the conquest long term. Its one thing for one or two significant people to accomplish such, but there was enough conflicting interests and factions even among individual cities for me to think it likely to remain when a less impressive Visconti takes the head. I'd actually say a good possibility is if Emperor Frederick II emerged triumphant against the papacy. He was very much focused on Italy over Germany. If he won, you might have seen the Kingdom of Sicily integrated into the Holy Roman Empire to form an Italy centered HRE.

Of course an early Italian kingdom from deriving from the Lombards or Carolingian kingdom is possible, but not my favorite option as it removes a lot of the more interesting political and economic developments that very much characterized Italy for me.
 
Considering any POD from the "Early middle ages" to the late XV century, how possible it is to stabilish an independent consolidated kingdom in most of Italy? It's inevitable for the peninsula to be split among petty duchies and city-states?

I'll guess the most apparent changes could be a stronger Kingdom of Lombardy or a post-Charlemagne one. I don't mind if this kingdom miss Rome itself or parts of southern Italy because of the obvious implications of it, but the idea is that by 1500 they are as intrinsic to Europe's existence as we know as France and England.

A super papacy seems very unlikely, but interesting if you can work this out.

I always liked an idea of unified Italy between 850 and 1300. I tried it a lot in CK2 (but failed because pope and Fatimid blob)

There is a way... the Habsburg way. Marry into other dynasty, get guarantee to get lands if the last heir and ruler are dead. Eventually you might have Savoy, Lombardy and Tuscany under control of 1 leader gobbling the city states later as well.

Or or... After the division of the Frankish Empire Italy survives the conflict and being absorbed by other Frankish states.
 
Well, there was a short lived united Italy under Louis II Kaarling, the conqueror of Bari, but due the sucession model followed by his dynasty, it would be very unlikely for it to not be absorbed into the HRE.
 
I mean, there's always the Lombards. Or a surviving Italian/Tunisian Western Roman Empire. Or an exiled Byzantium. The post-Lombard mess re-unifying is a lot harder, though. Pretty much everything is running against it, but if you can get a Borgia-ish guy much earlier you could probably get a North Italian state and some momentum going. The problem then would be the Byzantine southern Italian possessions.
 
Considering any POD from the "Early middle ages" to the late XV century, how possible it is to stabilish an independent consolidated kingdom in most of Italy? It's inevitable for the peninsula to be split among petty duchies and city-states?

I'll guess the most apparent changes could be a stronger Kingdom of Lombardy or a post-Charlemagne one. I don't mind if this kingdom miss Rome itself or parts of southern Italy because of the obvious implications of it, but the idea is that by 1500 they are as intrinsic to Europe's existence as we know as France and England.

A super papacy seems very unlikely, but interesting if you can work this out.
Pope Alexander VI dies in 1510, 7 years after his original death. His son carries out the plan to conquer Tuscany, Pisa and Bologna by 1505. After the control inside the Papal States in centralized, they can make a stand against foreign invasion. Because of Papal Support, the war in Naples between the French and Spanish continues. The Borgia switch alliances and play the French and Spanish against each other. By 1520, probably Northern Italy would be unified. Naples Sicily and Sardinia would not be possible to take because they were under the Aragonese Empire.
 
There's quite a few PoDs. Where and when it happens matters considerably.

One could use a late antiquity PoD- have Majorian succeed in his African conquest, and his heirs keep on to Italy at worst (I would go with a surviving WRE reduced to Italy, North Africa, Hispania, and the rump of Provence/Septimania and Illyria, potentially being usurped, conquered, or collapsing later, leading to a Chinese-esque cyclical process). Or you could go with a successful Justinian with the WRE/Italy breaking off. Or the Goths being more successful and forming a Gotho-Roman "kingdom" a la the Franks in Gaul.

The easiest way is to go back to pre-HRE days, either before or after Charlemagne. There are at least two timelines on this site- Carps Sons of the Harlot Empress, and Mario's Bernardians. This means a wildly divergent European history, as it means the Pope is the King/Emperor's vassal, to say nothing of divergent histories in eg the Frankish partitions, the Norman diaspora, the collapse of the Andalusians, the Byzantines, etc.

In the High Middle Ages things are tricky. The two that come to mind are Matilda of Tuscany being born male or having an heir, or something involving the Hohenstaufen. Either avoid Henry VI's premature death, or Philip's assassination; the most likely result of this is a High Medieval Habsburg, with a Sicilian (and *Spanish? Frederick was married to an Aragonese Princess, and this is at the cusp of the Reconquista, also the 4th Crusade... plenty of options for expansion) branch under Frederick II and a Swabia-based Imperial dynasty (with Milan?) crushing the Papacy between them. I've actually thought about the latter- my general thought was that Sicily annexes Greece, Catalonia (including Provence), North Africa, Egypt &/or Jerusalem (nominally and/or temporarily, at best until the Mongols, at worst like OTL's Frederick II's claims), and the entire Papal States, the HRE/Germany centralizes around Swabia-Austria-Pomerania (the Northern Crusades being used, potentially, by a strong German monarchy in a manner similar to the Albigensian Crusade), and Northern Italy, including the rather disaffected rump of Venice, pulls a Switzerland and confederates the Lombard League. France, caught between super-Germany with the Rhineland/Low Countries, and the English on the other hand, is left sulking in a corner.

Later on the Visconti are an excellent candidate (hint hint), as they came quite close to conquering all of the north OTL, and have an excellent window of opportunity with both the Papacy and the Empire weak.

There are other possibilities- Irene is doing a timeline with Venice scooping up most of the north, and it's not unthinkable that 15th or 16th century Venice could have annexed the Romagna and/or Lombardy. There's also, I think, a Cesare Borgia timeline. You could also do something hilarious like have a Habsburg branch gain Naples+Milan, (re)conquer the Venetian Terrafirma, and inherit Tuscany, Savoy, Mantua, Ferrara, etc, before finally getting the Italian Crown from their cousins at an alt-Vienna or alt-War of the Austrian Succession or whatever. That would be very difficult, though, owing to the lack of interest by any powers for a united Italian state; still, not impossible, and it would make for a fun read if done right.
 
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