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On these forums and elsewhere, Japan doing better is a very common discussion, in this recent thread.

Rarely is it mentioned that Japan had plenty of luck and favorable circumstances early in the Pacific War that the Japanese had little to no control over.

That said, just how utterly horribly could Japan's war go wrong? I say "war" in the singular, but it's far enough to consider the war in China from 1937-41 the prequel of a series... so consider it as you will.

The Pacific War with the Allies has enough to consider in terms of Japanese misfortune. It's been mentioned before that it could or should have been much more difficult for the IJA an IJN to reduce the Philippines and particularly to seize Singapore. Regarding the former, I don't think anyone would have predicted ex ante that American air power would be destroyed on the ground in the opening stages of the war, and a TL here that contained such a thing would need justification. Then of course there are other situations, like Wake Island, where American forces might well have held out for reinforcements after fighting off the first unsuccessful attack.

In a war where everything (plausibly) goes wrong for Japan, what does it look like? Just how bad is it compared to OTL?
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