How plausible is this series of events?

Hashasheen

Banned
July 1863: The seige of Vicksburg fails, and President Lincoln loses against his challenger Democrat George B. McClellan. Peace is made with the Confederacy, who's people and leadership wearily welcomes peace. An era of rebuilding occurs, and some industrialisation begins in some less devastated states, initiated by the goverment to provide for the returning soldiers. A period of large unemployment rates follow, and with lowering of cotton prices, is bound to increase.

1870-1880: The idea of Manifest Destiny occurs in the CSA, aimed especially at Central America. Thousands of privateers and immigrants head southward with the aim of colonising and then adding Central America as territories to the CSA. Despite US, British and French sentiments being against it, the CSA continues to provide funding and turns a blind eye to it's citizens actions in Central America. Much of the region becomes quasi-Confederate territory or controlled by Confederate-allied warlords. It would take until 1925 to completly pacificy and dominate the region, and remains a location for Confederate dissidents. The Prussian victory over the French brings the imagery of the CSA versus the USA, and the two countries grow warmer. In contrast, France aligns itself with the Americans, though is less successful due to the support previously given to the Confederates.

1898: The Spanish-Confederate war occurs when filibustering forces in Cuba are captured by the local Spanish garrison. Despite local Confederate numerical superiority, they are unable to effectively defeat reinforced and re-equipped Spanish forces and are forced off the island, as well as Puerto Rico. the Carribean holdings remain a part of Spain and their hold there is reinforced with additional troops. Unfortunately, Spain is left cash-strapped and struggling from war-debt.

1899: Japan buys the Philipines and Guam from the desperate Spaniards, to the detriment of the British and the Americans who have begun to expand their interest in the Pacific. Japanese colonisation will increase during their control, and is a integral part of the Imperial domains. The increase in Pacific holdings leads to a larger naval influence as the goverment looks towards Indo-China as a possible expansion. covert aid given to anti-French forces in the region and humanitarian support manages to drive the populace closer to Japan than their new French overlords. Japan is unwilling to risk battle with the French or the British abandoning their alliance over the matter.

Only four time periods so far, but what do you think? :)
 
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Vicksburg alone wouldn't cause McClellan to win, since it's more than a year before the election and there's still the victory in Gettysburg to consider.
 
V-burg could theoretically be used as the first in a series of US reversals that leave the CS in a stronger position, enough to make the war look unwinable to enough of the northern populous by Nov 64 to get Mac elected.

CS involvement in Latin America is IMO a given; however, I doubt the US will sit idle and let the CSA exert hegemony over the hemisphere. You could have a series of proxy wars in the LA nations. I could see an early crisis over Cuba or Hispaniola. The SCW would likely become a SCAW.

CS-Prussian relations are as possible as any CS-Euro relations. I'd still assume close CS-UK relations considering economic ties between CS cotton and UK textile mills, though mitigated by the growth of Egyptian cotton.

The CS still has to overcome its internal divisions and lack of population and industry. The pop will be greatly reduced and the economy shattered by the long war as OTL. How soon they'd recover - if they did - is a vital question.
 
July 1863: The seige of Vicksburg fails, and President Lincoln loses against his challenger Democrat George B. McClellan. Peace is made with the Confederacy, who's people and leadership wearily welcomes peace. An era of rebuilding occurs, and some industrialisation begins in some less devastated states, initiated by the goverment to provide for the returning soldiers. A period of large unemployment rates follow, and with lowering of cotton prices, is bound to increase.

Possible. You'd need more than a 5% swing to get an electoral college majority for McClellan, even if he wins the popular vote.

1870-1880: The idea of Manifest Destiny occurs in the CSA, aimed especially at Central America. Thousands of privateers and immigrants head southward with the aim of colonising and then adding Central America as territories to the CSA. Despite US, British and French sentiments being against it, the CSA continues to provide funding and turns a blind eye to it's citizens actions in Central America. Much of the region becomes quasi-Confederate territory or controlled by Confederate-allied warlords. It would take until 1925 to completly pacificy and dominate the region, and remains a location for Confederate dissidents. The Prussian victory over the French brings the imagery of the CSA versus the USA, and the two countries grow warmer. In contrast, France aligns itself with the Americans, though is less successful due to the support previously given to the Confederates.

Prussia beats the French to a pulp and becomes the German Empire.
CSA secedes from the USA, then beats them in a close run war.
Doesn't look like enough of an analogy to keep the imagery going to me. There might be some similarities between the Junker and Southern gentlemen to matter emotionally, though.

Another thing: I think Spain would also try to court the Americans as well. My enemy's enemy is my friend and all that. And the CSA would be the enemy if they can't "keep control" of their citizens.

And more about Spain: Expect more money spent on defense, and some of the revolts in Cuba would flare up less often: not only because of the increase in troop deployment and readyness, but because the Cuban independence/autonomy movement would be against kicking one overlord to put another one in place. Specially as the new overlord would have an alien culture, language and would be closer by.

1898: The Spanish-Confederate war occurs when filibustering forces in Cuba are captured by the local Spanish garrison. Despite local Confederate numerical superiority, they are unable to effectively defeat reinforced and re-equipped Spanish forces and are forced off the island, as well as Puerto Rico. the Carribean holdings remain a part of Spain and their hold there is reinforced with additional troops. Unfortunately, Spain is left cash-strapped and struggling from war-debt.

No problems there. In fact the Spanish money problems would be worse than in OTL, as more money has been spent in the military. On the other hand, Cuba will be quieter for a while afterwards, and might get more autonomy. That is not without its problems (because, of course, if Cuba gets this why shouldn't Catalonia...) but that would come later.

1899: Japan buys the Philipines and Guam from the desperate Spaniards,

Hooooooold on.

My disbelief, which was being suspended nicely up to this point, just fell abruptly into a chasm.

Sell the Philippines AND Guam? What happened?
Did a meteorite turn Central Spain into a crater?
Are they eating the aqueduct in Segovia?
Did the Japanese ambassador press F12 neville ENTER?(2)

You'd need a few more years -off the top of my head, I'd say a decade- until the Katipunan(3) makes the Spanish so fed up that they can consider offloading the Philippines to someone else.

They might sell the Carolinas and the Marianas to the Japanese, but probably at higher prices than to the Germans in OTL: after all you might have three potential bidders rather than two, and it wouldn't be a "close of business: all stock must go" sale. The US might offer a better price.

I have an alternative for you: the Japanese can take over Mindanao. Whether it was a Spanish dependency or protectorate or not depends on which version of the treaty you read, but it shouldn't be too hard for the Japanese to compensate Spain for the trouble.

to the detriment of the British and the Americans who have begun to expand their interest in the Pacific. Japanese colonisation will increase during their control, and is a integral part of the Imperial domains. The increase in Pacific holdings leads to a larger naval influence as the goverment looks towards Indo-China as a possible expansion. covert aid given to anti-French forces in the region and humanitarian support manages to drive the populace closer to Japan than their new French overlords. Japan is unwilling to risk battle with the French or the British abandoning their alliance over the matter.

Only four time periods so far, but what do you think? :)

Having the Japanese behave as a proper colonial nation(4) in Sulu could also bring them friends in the Philippines, so this also might also work out for what you're thinking. It doesn't turn the Philippines into a colony, though.

Do please do go on. I am subscribing this thread already. And, if we shadows have offended...

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(1) Which I kind of guess will be what the Spanish might call the Confederates as opposed to the US yanquis.
(2) F12 neville ENTER makes AI nations always agree to your diplomatic proposals in Victoria, a Paradox PC game that... I don't need to explain the rest, do I really? Ahem. ASK ME ABOUT VICTORIA <ADVERTISEMENT>
(3) The Filipino secret society, founded by among others by Jose Rizal coordinating the fight against the Spanish oppressor. Rizal is a most interesting character. If the Spanish hadn't killed him so young (which can be butterflied on your TL) he might have been better known than Gandhi.
(4) To the extent that there can be such a thing.
 

Hashasheen

Banned
*snippet of comments*
You misunderstand, this isn't a TL of any kind. I'm simply throwing out ideas on a possible theories of events and asking for help refining it. If anyone want's to pick up the idea, they're more than welcome to. A collaboration might be best, since this does cover a lot of ground. :)
 

Hashasheen

Banned
Vicksburg alone wouldn't cause McClellan to win, since it's more than a year before the election and there's still the victory in Gettysburg to consider.
How did that go OTL? These aren't areas of expertise to me, and this is little more than a thought's thread. :)


V-burg could theoretically be used as the first in a series of US reversals that leave the CS in a stronger position, enough to make the war look unwinable to enough of the northern populous by Nov 64 to get Mac elected.
Besides V-burg and G-burg, are there any fronts that could be exploited?

CS involvement in Latin America is IMO a given; however, I doubt the US will sit idle and let the CSA exert hegemony over the hemisphere. You could have a series of proxy wars in the LA nations. I could see an early crisis over Cuba or Hispaniola. The SCW would likely become a SCAW.
Would the Americans intervene if the Spanish held on early? I thought they'd give funds and materials to the forces there, using them as a second counterweight to the CSA.

CS-Prussian relations are as possible as any CS-Euro relations. I'd still assume close CS-UK relations considering economic ties between CS cotton and UK textile mills, though mitigated by the growth of Egyptian cotton.
At this time, I don't think the UK was so opposed to Prussia. The CSA wouldn't have to choose between the two countries, yet. Maybe after Bismark.... ;)

The CS still has to overcome its internal divisions and lack of population and industry. The pop will be greatly reduced and the economy shattered by the long war as OTL. How soon they'd recover - if they did - is a vital question.
Duly noted. I gave them seven years before privateers started anything, and on the economic's side, they'd be similiar to Lebanon: In a good place to start but not possessing the funds or focus to do so.

Possible. You'd need more than a 5% swing to get an electoral college majority for McClellan, even if he wins the popular vote.
Duly noted.

Prussia beats the French to a pulp and becomes the German Empire.
CSA secedes from the USA, then beats them in a close run war.
Doesn't look like enough of an analogy to keep the imagery going to me. There might be some similarities between the Junker and Southern gentlemen to matter emotionally, though.
German states unifying against a foreign agressor that seems to be stronger in the beginning, but falls to their soldiers, bravery and fighting spirit. ;)

Another thing: I think Spain would also try to court the Americans as well. My enemy's enemy is my friend and all that. And the CSA would be the enemy if they can't "keep control" of their citizens.
True, I hadn't thought of that. Spain is a side-note in my thoughts, it seems.

And more about Spain: Expect more money spent on defense, and some of the revolts in Cuba would flare up less often: not only because of the increase in troop deployment and readyness, but because the Cuban independence/autonomy movement would be against kicking one overlord to put another one in place. Specially as the new overlord would have an alien culture, language and would be closer by. In fact the Spanish money problems would be worse than in OTL, as more money has been spent in the military. On the other hand, Cuba will be quieter for a while afterwards, and might get more autonomy. That is not without its problems (because, of course, if Cuba gets this why shouldn't Catalonia...) but that would come later.
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With the additional troops, is there an able governor or administrator that can be sent from Spain to do some good?

Hooooooold on.

My disbelief, which was being suspended nicely up to this point, just fell abruptly into a chasm.

Sell the Philippines AND Guam? What happened?
Did a meteorite turn Central Spain into a crater?
Are they eating the aqueduct in Segovia?
Did the Japanese ambassador press F12 neville ENTER?(2)
Nothing so bad as that.:D

You'd need a few more years -off the top of my head, I'd say a decade- until the Katipunan(3) makes the Spanish so fed up that they can consider offloading the Philippines to someone else.
A decade? So just around the German/French dispute in Morroco, right?

They might sell the Carolinas and the Marianas to the Japanese, but probably at higher prices than to the Germans in OTL: after all you might have three potential bidders rather than two, and it wouldn't be a "close of business: all stock must go" sale. The US might offer a better price.
Interesting ...

I have an alternative for you: the Japanese can take over Mindanao. Whether it was a Spanish dependency or protectorate or not depends on which version of the treaty you read, but it shouldn't be too hard for the Japanese to compensate Spain for the trouble.
Mindanao? What's that? :confused:

Having the Japanese behave as a proper colonial nation(4) in Sulu could also bring them friends in the Philippines, so this also might also work out for what you're thinking. It doesn't turn the Philippines into a colony, though...
A dependency like Manchuko might work though...
 
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Hashasheen said:
Mindanao? What's that? :confused:

It's one of the three main islands of the Philippines, being the most southern one, that part of the country where Islamist insurgencies happen frequently. And it's shaped like the ass of a person, when looking at a map of said country.

hsthompson said:
You'd need a few more years -off the top of my head, I'd say a decade- until the Katipunan(3) makes the Spanish so fed up that they can consider offloading the Philippines to someone else.

Hmm, I dunno, even if Spain wins TTL's SCW (or if they get involved, SCAW), weren't they already in a financial mess? Possibly they wouldn't sell it to Japan, but like what has been mentioned, to the highest bidder.

If it's only SCW, then maybe Spain would sell the Philippines immediately (even though this may not be Japan). This is assuming that the war is costly for Spain, and I'm afraid I don't know much about an analogue-CSA's military strength at this time to properly predict the costs. But if the Americans get involved -- and this is assuming they're siding with the Spanish -- then maybe less costly for Spain (that is to say, US as ally makes it easier, probably steamrolls CS), thus a much later auctioning of the Philippines.
 
Other fronts? Maybe some offensive Confederate action in the Shenandoah or somehow breaking the blockade.
 
Would the Americans intervene if the Spanish held on early? I thought they'd give funds and materials to the forces there, using them as a second counterweight to the CSA.

That'd be pretty much the maximum extent of it. Most probably it'd be something like the attitude of Spain during WWII:

- Officially the US is not going to be involved in your dispute with Spain. Either the Monroe Doctrine has already been officially cast aside -which makes sense-. In any case, a diplomatic note saying basically "You started it. You fix it." would do.
- Unofficially Hi Reb! You know the Spanish? We're giving them the best bargain prices they can get. If our citizens decide to volunteer to fight you, why, it's a free country. Bye! P.S: Hope the Spanish and all their friends tear you a new one."

German states unifying against a foreign agressor that seems to be stronger in the beginning, but falls to their soldiers, bravery and fighting spirit. ;)

I hadn't thought of it that way. Why I have no idea. It makes lots of sense. Work ruins the brain.

With the additional troops, is there an able governor or administrator that can be sent from Spain to do some good?

Tall order.

More of this guy:

Fernando Primo de Rivera

Decent chap from what I could gather, knows how to negotiate. After 1900 his nephew becomes available. He's a bit better known.

Miguel Primo de Rivera

What is more important, don't get this guy anywhere near command of actual troops or police.

Valeriano Weyler

A butcher and responsible for putting half a million Cubans and many Filipinos in concentration camps and killing thousands of hunger and disease. That last wasn't his intention though, but...

You'd need a few more years -off the top of my head, I'd say a decade- until the Katipunan(3) makes the Spanish so fed up that they can consider offloading the Philippines to someone else.[/quote] A decade? So just around the German/French dispute in Morroco, right?[/QUOTE]

Yep. You can make it shorter (more bloody repression!) or longer (get capable negotiators and perhaps non-violent resistance, less Weyler).

Mindanao? What's that? :confused:

It is all very confusing. In fact I managed to confuse myself badly when researching this before. So I'll give a bit more detail.

Mindanao is the southern big island of the Philippines. When the Spanish arrived, there were two Islamic sultanates established the century before, Magundanao in the southern end of the island of Mindanao and Sulu on the nearby big islands, and part of Brunei (Sabah).

Those two sultanates did retain a certain degree of autonomy until the end of Spanish rule over the islands. How much? Well, Magundanao deferred all foreign affairs and religious matters to Sulu.

Sulu signed a treaty with Spain in 1876 in which Spain claimed sovereignty over Sulu (Spanish version) and Sulu acknowledged being a protectorate of Spain (Tausug-Sulu- version). Magundanao remained independent at the end of Spanish rule. Whether it could have remained so should the rule continue is subject to speculation. Which is what we do...

When I wrote the previous post. I was under the impression that Magundanao controlled the whole of the island of Mindanao, which it didn't by a stretch of the imagination.

A cash strapped Spain could sell one or all of the islands in Sulu, or Magundanao might be open to Japanese gunboat diplomacy and/or a subsequent protectorate, without the Spanish being able to say much in the matter.
 
Hmm, I dunno, even if Spain wins TTL's SCW (or if they get involved, SCAW), weren't they already in a financial mess? Possibly they wouldn't sell it to Japan, but like what has been mentioned, to the highest bidder.

The only reason Spain would sell anything is because it has been already taken from them. The only reason money was exchanged in OTL is because the "sale" of Cuba and the Philippines was made at gunpoint and to avoid the loss of yet more blood without the possibility of victory. But without someone attacking? You'd need either massed non-violent resistance (which would have worked in the very long run) or armed resistance on a level of violence worse than was ever seen in the islands. And then they would send Weyler again a blank check.

Any Spanish government could sell small islands and coaling bases. But the whole of the Philippines? Before that happens, they would eat rocks.

If we look at the Treaty of Paris, we can see what they would sell first: Sulu and Mindanao (and even then I would presume that if the sale is to be made in peacetime, it would not be the whole of Mindanao).

Kind of obvious really since they didn't control all of Mindanao or Sulu that well.

Further than that? Well, if the rocks go stale, then they would sell the rest.

If it's only SCW, then maybe Spain would sell the Philippines immediately (even though this may not be Japan). This is assuming that the war is costly for Spain, and I'm afraid I don't know much about an analogue-CSA's military strength at this time to properly predict the costs. But if the Americans get involved -- and this is assuming they're siding with the Spanish -- then maybe less costly for Spain (that is to say, US as ally makes it easier, probably steamrolls CS), thus a much later auctioning of the Philippines.

Take into account that in this TL the Spanish government has had thirty years or so of an expansionist neighbour on their doorstep, no bark, all bite. The US in OTL was all bark, no bite until events precipitated quite quickly... and by then it was too late for Spain. Here there's ample warning.
 
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