How much wealthier would Korea be today had it retained its independence after 1905?

CaliGuy

Banned
I don't think you can avoid the Russo-Japanese War and expect butterflies to go wild...

That said the context of East Asian politics will dictate mostly, how is the status of China for example.
What about if China still descends into civil war, anarchy, and warlordism, gets invaded by Japan, and turns red several decades later?
 
Korea might have developed a modern economy without any outside help and as a no-man's-land between Japan and China, but it would be heavily dependent on it's larger, much more powerful neighbors for exporting.
Assuming Korea does remain unified, wouldn't the domestic market be large enough to sustain development? Plus, there are always further markets.

Furthermore, there is no guarantee that either Japan or China will be "much more powerful".
 

Deleted member 1487

Assuming Korea does remain unified, wouldn't the domestic market be large enough to sustain development? Plus, there are always further markets.
The 1905 pre-industrial, agricultural based Korea? No. Japan relied on outside markets and had a much more developed industrial base even in the 19th century when it went Meiji. The Chinese too had a massive industrial development plan in the 1930s based on their relatively small market, but also exports, including of their much larger mineral base. Korea will need export markets to raise capital, I have no idea who would want to invest in them like the US and Japan did IOTL post-Korean war (or without Japanese colonialism).

Furthermore, there is no guarantee that either Japan or China will be "much more powerful".
Much more powerful than Korea, which has a fraction of the population of their two neighbors.
 
The 1905 pre-industrial, agricultural based Korea? No. Japan relied on outside markets and had a much more developed industrial base even in the 19th century when it went Meiji. The Chinese too had a massive industrial development plan in the 1930s based on their relatively small market, but also exports, including of their much larger mineral base. Korea will need export markets to raise capital, I have no idea who would want to invest in them like the US and Japan did IOTL post-Korean war (or without Japanese colonialism).

There was a lot of foreign investment in mining before annexation, and given that Korea has some of the highest quality coal in East Asia along with rice (to the point that the Japanese agricultural industry collapsed due to all the rice coming in from Korea), and all the numerous mineral wealth, there is no reason why Korea wouldn't be able to get investments and also markets both within and without.


Much more powerful than Korea, which has a fraction of the population of their two neighbors.
Sure, assuming somehow China will eternally stay united, and that Japan will somehow magically have a large population (currently Japan is barely 50% larger, and that's after ROK undergoing massive drop in birth rate and millions dying in the 1990s famine, never mind the millions that also died in the Korean War)
 

Deleted member 1487

There was a lot of foreign investment in mining before annexation, and given that Korea has some of the highest quality coal in East Asia along with rice (to the point that the Japanese agricultural industry collapsed due to all the rice coming in from Korea), and all the numerous mineral wealth, there is no reason why Korea wouldn't be able to get investments and also markets both within and without.
I'm open to being convinced. Provide some sources so we can assess what the levels of investment were so we can come up with a rough model of what the situation going forward from 1905 would look like. Perhaps between agriculture and coal they could raise enough money to have the potential to do something, but then they'd also need competent leadership to pull a Meiji. So do you have the sources and data for us to look at?

Sure, assuming somehow China will eternally stay united, and that Japan will somehow magically have a large population (currently Japan is barely 50% larger, and that's after ROK undergoing massive drop in birth rate and millions dying in the 1990s famine, never mind the millions that also died in the Korean War)
The Chinese market remained open IOTL even with the Warlord period. Japan has a lot more land and a large population head start in 1905, so I'm not sure how Korea is going to catch up, especially if Japan doesn't get in ruinous wars on the mainland.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
I'm open to being convinced. Provide some sources so we can assess what the levels of investment were so we can come up with a rough model of what the situation going forward from 1905 would look like. Perhaps between agriculture and coal they could raise enough money to have the potential to do something, but then they'd also need competent leadership to pull a Meiji. So do you have the sources and data for us to look at?

This might be of interest to you, Wiking:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gwangmu_Reform
 
The Chinese market remained open IOTL even with the Warlord period. Japan has a lot more land and a large population head start in 1905, so I'm not sure how Korea is going to catch up, especially if Japan doesn't get in ruinous wars on the mainland.

I don't understand the standard you're using. The population of the two Koreas now is about 75 million to Japan's 120 million. Significantly lower, yes, but not enough so that it must be a puppet. And so long as Korea is open to trade, it can trade with the West if it needs to.
 

Deleted member 1487

I don't understand the standard you're using. The population of the two Koreas now is about 75 million to Japan's 120 million. Significantly lower, yes, but not enough so that it must be a puppet. And so long as Korea is open to trade, it can trade with the West if it needs to.
I'm talking about in 1905, not now.

This might be of interest to you, Wiking:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gwangmu_Reform
Certainly interesting, perhaps the Koreans had Meiji potential. But what is the POD that keeps them independent?
 
I'm talking about in 1905, not now.

I think lack of urbanization and inefficient bureaucracy was holding them back - democracy101 has talked about this in the past. That said, what they need is government reform, not least since they all but invited the Japanese in in the end, plus time. Time could be bought with any number of POD's that trip Japan up, or help China or Russia or whoever, and the reforms were coming IOTL as Gwangmu shows. The other other consideration is that Japan relied on subversion and propaganda to allay Korean resistance because they were wary of having to invade after their experiences in the Imjin War. A more resolutely nationalist government with some more modern weapons from the Russians or whoever could be deterrent enough to buy the requisite breathing space.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
That delays things, but what keeps something else from happening to have them colonized?
Who exactly is going to have them colonized other than the Russians and Japanese, though? Indeed, if the Russians and Japanese avoid touching Korea to avoid making each other stronger, exactly who else is there who would be both willing and able to do this?
 
Oh, right, and let's not ignore the possible POD whereby China deals with its internal corruption more effectively, enabling them to win or draw in the Sino-Japanese War, which would preserve the status quo in Korea until such time as they can push for independence themselves. On paper, their military could probably have won if their admirals hadn't sold off their cannons and other insane shit that would get laughed out of a comedy script.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Oh, right, and let's not ignore the possible POD whereby China deals with its internal corruption more effectively, enabling them to win or draw in the Sino-Japanese War, which would preserve the status quo in Korea until such time as they can push for independence themselves. On paper, their military could probably have won if their admirals hadn't sold off their cannons and other insane shit that would get laughed out of a comedy script.
Are you being sarcastic here?
 
I'm open to being convinced. Provide some sources so we can assess what the levels of investment were so we can come up with a rough model of what the situation going forward from 1905 would look like. Perhaps between agriculture and coal they could raise enough money to have the potential to do something, but then they'd also need competent leadership to pull a Meiji. So do you have the sources and data for us to look at?

Korea under Siege, 1876-1945: Capital Formation and Economic Transformation is a great book on this issue. I'll post a few parts of interest for the 1876–1904 part:


..... When proper adjustments are made, the actual deficit balance for Korea might be 15 to 20 percent smaller than the official statistics indicate and set at about 23 million yen during 1876–1904. This amount was equivalent to approximately 1.6 percent of Korea’s GDP in 1904. This small balance-of-payments deficit (or import surplus) suggests that there was a net inflow of foreign resources, thus enabling foreigners to invest in Korea. In this way, the opening of the country brought not only Western goods and advanced technology, it also allowed foreign resources to enter the country for investment, the establishment of industries, and the promotion of economic growth.

..... Korea’s exports to Japan, which constituted, on average, over nine-tenths of Korea’s total exports were composed predominantly of rice, beans, gold, and silver. Japanese tradesmen scoured the country for rice, even when the export of grain was prohibited by the Korean government. Gold exports to Japan peaked in 1887, when they represented about 85 percent of total Korean exports. The figure fell to 46.3 percent in 1893 and to about 40 percent before the Sino-Japanese War in 1894, but it regained its footing afterward, rising to about 65 percent between 1894 and 1900. Such exports were worth 3.7 million yen just before the Russo-Japanese War in 1904. Annual exports of gold to Japan represented between 50 and more than 90 percent of total gold exports during most of the transitional period. Japan apparently was seeking gold in order to place its currency on a gold-standard system.

..... Almost all foreign investment in Korea during the transitional period was direct, and most was devoted to the development of commerce; mining; public utilities such as railroads, electric power, and communications; and the purchase of land. In the early years it was commerce that attracted most foreign investment, especially that of the Japanese and to some extent the Chinese.

...... As a consequence, for the most part the Korean economy during the transitional period remained undeveloped. Its growth was minimal. It can be estimated that Korea’s GDP expanded by no more than 10 percent in the thirty-year period, increasing the per capita GDP only about one-hundredth of a percent a year, from $720 in 1876 to $745 (all in year-2000 prices) in 1904, if at all. The basic economic structure was still agriculture, and the industrial sector remained infantile. The disposition to overconsume relative to income continued, while the propensities to save and invest were low, as Korea’s traditional consumption habits changed little, and savings continued to be negligible during the transitional period. Savings were too meager to finance large investments in such modern sectors of the economy as railroads, shipping, mining, banking, and manufacturing. Had Korea not been taken over by Japan, probably it eventually would have reformed, accumulated capital, and brought about economic development in due course. Unfortunately, such opportunity was not accorded to the country for the next forty years.
 
Oh, right, and let's not ignore the possible POD whereby China deals with its internal corruption more effectively, enabling them to win or draw in the Sino-Japanese War, which would preserve the status quo in Korea until such time as they can push for independence themselves. On paper, their military could probably have won if their admirals hadn't sold off their cannons and other insane shit that would get laughed out of a comedy script.
Russia still there and I can definitely see them destroying the Qing in Manchuria and Korea.

Are you being sarcastic here?
Corruption in the Beiyang Fleet was something horrendous, you had Gun operators selling shells to the black market, money to buy supplies being embezzled by officials that would replace them with duds and Dowager Empress Cixi using the navy's budget to build a marble ship in the summer palace (it was a ship after all).
 
Had Korea retained its independence after 1905--for instance, by completely butterflying away the Russo-Japanese War--and avoided getting partitioned after the end of World War II later on (other than the Russo-Japanese War, I want to minimize the butterflies in this TL), how much wealthier would Korea--including our TL's South Korea--be in this TL?
Short answer- yes. Long answer - hold on im on my phone wait a bit
 
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