How Much Time Does A German Victory at Stalingrad Buy

Pretty much what the title says. While I don't believe it would be a war winner by any means, if the Germans are able to take Stalingrad "on the march" in August, 1942, how much time does it buy them? Enough to affect anything major?
 

tenthring

Banned
It depends entirely on what the Soviet leadership does.

Barring soviet collapse any at ends in 1945 with nukes.
 
Anglo/American Nazi War is the most detailed timeline with this particular POD. As tenthring said, Stalin's reaction is key here. If, as in AANW, he unleashes a purge of his generals in a fit of anger, the Soviets are in a much weaker position for any counterattack.

Stalingrad was as much a symbolic as a strategic goal. The blow to Soviet morale would be severe. However, the Eastern Front still heavily favors the Soviets for logistical reasons, so it would still take a LOT to get an outright Axis victory.
 
Pretty much what the title says. While I don't believe it would be a war winner by any means, if the Germans are able to take Stalingrad "on the march" in August, 1942, how much time does it buy them? Enough to affect anything major?

It's nowhere near as decisive as getting List over the Caucasus would have been. I'd say it could buy another 6 months in the East. It's not that simple though. Either way, D Day still happens and even a mass transfer to the West likely only halts the allied advance by a month or so. Best bet the Western allies take Berlin in mid to late JUne 1945 or so
 

Wendigo

Banned
It's nowhere near as decisive as getting List over the Caucasus would have been. I'd say it could buy another 6 months in the East. It's not that simple though. Either way, D Day still happens and even a mass transfer to the West likely only halts the allied advance by a month or so. Best bet the Western allies take Berlin in mid to late JUne 1945 or so

List over the Caucasus?
 
It will depend on the timing and nature of the victory. The city being captured early, maybe by IV Pz Army not being diverted to join I Pz Army at the Don crossing, will be both a psychological shock and hinder Soviet operations in the Caucasus. Lots of possible outcomes, from Stalin seeking a peace like Brest Litiivosk through a stalemate in 1943/44 somewhere between the Don and Dniepr to the Red Army's victories simply being a bit later and a slower advance into Eastern Europe. Maybe the War in Europe lasts another six months or so.

OTOH, its fall in late October or November will still be a psychological blow but not critical. The Soviets were already preparing their offensive and could launch it on schedule. Only if the Germans had time to withdraw their motorised forces and reshuffle everything so the less well equipped allies were the garrison of Stalingrad itself would they avoid the encirclement and destruction of VI Army. I'm not sure OKH would do that. A few spoiling attacks might well make Hitler refuse to allow such a reshuffle anyway.
 
"Best-case" scenario for the Germans:

1942
- Soviet positions south of Stalingrad and west of the Volga are cleared as a follow-up, making any future 'pincer' impossible
- Luftwaffe brings it's A-Game and flattens the Baku refineries
- Axis units are reshuffled, with Italian mountain infantry actually sent to mountains and German mechanized units back north into the Don steppe
- Allies also land in Tunisia, North Africa abandoned early
- Soviets bungle their winter offensive, preferably with the spearheads cut off and destroyed

1943
- renewed push in the north sees Leningrad cut off
- 1943 summer campaign sees disastrous Soviet counteroffensive against Leningrad (desperate to relieve it) and premature D-Day instead of Sicily (launched due to fear of Soviet collapse); both fail spectacularly
- Leningrad starves to death late '43
- Winter of '43 ends up as an inconclusive meat grinder, as Germany still has a strategic armor reserve to throw at the Soviets

1944
- Allies decide to revisit the Mediterranean theater, and begin slowly pushing through Sicily and southern Italy, easily contained by German forces
- Soviet forces launch massive operation in Don region, break through; Caucasus, Stalingrad abandoned
- Red Army launches renewed offensive in the south, everything east of the Dnieper overrun, German forces withdraw in good order, mount a couple of succesful local counterattacks against exposed spearheads
- Crimea lost
- New offensive against occupied Leningrad, heavy street fighting

1945
- Soviets being experiencing severe manpower issues early
- Army Group Center pushed out of eastern Belarus
- D-Day Mark II launched in France, German armour stalls Allied advance in the bocage countryside for a couple of months
- German industrial output begins to collapse due to shattering of transport network by Allied air offensive
- Soviet forces cross the Dnieper along the entire front, German forces avoid encirclement
- Allies break through, Germans withdraw to the Seine river, then to eastern French border
- Soviet forces halted on the Dniester in Ukraine; Minsk falls
- lack of captured uranium slightly delays A-Bomb production
- first A-Bomb dropped over Nuremberg in late September
- second A-Bomb attack launched in October, but random Me-262 gets lucky and shoots down the bomber
- Army Group North withdraws from most of the Baltic states
- third A-Bomb attack launched mid-October, bomber crashes due to mechanical issues, blowing up random German village
- Antwerp harbor finally cleared by Allies
- Po Valley in Italy liberated
- atomic bombs churned out at the rate of 3-4/month in 1945: 3 in November, 4 in December, 3 in January, etc. etc. Anyone's guess when the Germans throw in the towel
 
Even if the Germans take Stalingrad does it make any difference. The Soviets are still building up for Operation Uranus does holding a few hundred square meters of the western shore mean anything.
 
Even if the Germans take Stalingrad does it make any difference. The Soviets are still building up for Operation Uranus does holding a few hundred square meters of the western shore mean anything.
I think the OP had something like this in mind:
stalingrad-jpg.229350
 

tenthring

Banned
Anglo/American Nazi War is the most detailed timeline with this particular POD. As tenthring said, Stalin's reaction is key here. If, as in AANW, he unleashes a purge of his generals in a fit of anger, the Soviets are in a much weaker position for any counterattack.

Stalingrad was as much a symbolic as a strategic goal. The blow to Soviet morale would be severe. However, the Eastern Front still heavily favors the Soviets for logistical reasons, so it would still take a LOT to get an outright Axis victory.

It's strategic in the sense that Nazis will cut the Volga, not that the city itself is that important. Taking it early may also allow them to protect their forces in the caucuses, which was really the point of the operation.
 
Does victory in Stalingrad turn into resources, mainly oil, for the axis? If not, I can see no difference in the outcome.
 
Does victory in Stalingrad turn into resources, mainly oil, for the axis? If not, I can see no difference in the outcome.
No. There is no way the germans are getting anything out of the caucuses. Or atleast not unless they get 6 months without any fighting to reorganise their transport first. They might at best deny some resourses to the ussr. The axis were already out numbered and out supplied before they attacked. Capturing Stalingrad is not going to change that. You probably end up with the battle the Russians expected to fight with most of the 6 th army escaping encirlement but having burned up all it's supplies and forced to retreat. Does this delay the end of the war? Perhaps but it is not straight forward.
 
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