The opposition to diem, led to internecine violence, and catholic, Buddhist conflict.That's very early, no?
So, there was no one in South Vietnam who could have taken charge and stabilized the situation there?The opposition to diem, led to internecine violence, and catholic, Buddhist conflict.
Ky was too young.
Did anyone ever take this proposal seriously, though?There was a proposal to restore BAO Dai.
What you're thinking of would have required a change of mind on JFK's part, though:If John F Kennedy had survived his assassination attempt he would've done pretty much what Lyndon B Johnson did. He would've poured in more soldiers and equipment to prop up the South Vietnamese government. South Vietnam was an ally of the United States so JFK would've done everything he could've to protect them from what he perceived to be the Communist threat from both the Vietcong and, later, North Vietnam. The big question would be whether or not JFK would've sent in as much equipment and soldiers as LBJ did.
I doubt that JFK would've sent as many soldiers and military equipment as LBJ did in our time line so it is possible that the 1968 Tet Offensive may have been far more successful, possibly resulting in a Vietcong/North Vietnamese victory.
Assuming the Tet Offensive failed, Richard Nixon got elected in the 1968 U.S Elections and did what he did in our time line then the collapse of the South Vietnamese government would've been pretty much the same as in our time line. That is, 1975.
South Vietnam was a house of cards. I could see them holding them out without heavy American involvement. The odds aren't definitely in South Vietnam's favor. But, avoiding the Americanization of the war should keep the war more down-scaled and less intense. Without so many American troops, the VC shouldn't be able to rally as many peasants to their cause. Large swats of the country will be in Communist hands or influence, but SVN be able to hold on to enough places so at least SVN could have some what of a existence.
Had JFK lived and withdrew from South Vietnam, how much sooner would South Vietnam fall?
I have looked at that very long post of yours, David; indeed, it's extremely interesting.As I feared, some people are answering by denying that JFK would have withdrawn troops from South Vietnam--which is an interesting debate, which we have had here before, [1] but not really responsive to the question, which is *what if* JFK does withdraw the troops. And the answer to that is that South Vietnam would fall in 1965.
[1] See, e.g., https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...-to-intervene-in-vietnam.333185/#post-9892176
That's an argument pushed by the revisionist camp of historians. Even Ho admitted Diem had some Nationalist credentials compared to those who followed him.I happen to know the man who ran CIA operations in South Vietnam in the late 60's to early 70's... he is of the opinion that once Diem was killed it was increasingly problematic for a South Vietnamese leader to be seen as legitimate.. so no US intervention forcing the North to peace talks and they are done like dinner by no later than '68. No Nixon derailing the '68 talks (Haldeman's notes on the event are now public record) and we have peace in '68 with a shaky South looking to get its legs under it until a leader with some sense of legitimacy in the eyes of the people comes along. No assassination of Diem..once more relying upon the educated opinion of my friend.. you can achieve peace by '68 with possibly a little less intense intervention. He has stated that the religious angle has been over played Diem had no problem with promoting Budhists to high positions.. the monk emulation has far more to do with a pact between the monk and a friend of his that emulated himself as a protest against the Chinese government then any perceived persecution of Buddhists by Diem. Until the death of Diem he was the one that was seen by the common people with a claim on the mandate of heaven.. after that it was all Ho.
Also, here's another question for you, David--do you think that we would see anywhere near as much Vietnamese immigration to the U.S. over the last 55 years in this TL?As I feared, some people are answering by denying that JFK would have withdrawn troops from South Vietnam--which is an interesting debate, which we have had here before, [1] but not really responsive to the question, which is *what if* JFK does withdraw the troops. And the answer to that is that South Vietnam would fall in 1965.
[1] See, e.g., https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...-to-intervene-in-vietnam.333185/#post-9892176