How much shorter could the war in the Pacific have been?

In that case, would the war end more quickly if MacArthur's escape boat from Corregidor gets sunk? Or even better, if MacArthur is somehow prevented from ever taking command in the Philippines in the first place (killed in WWI or so forth)?
1. Yes. 2. Maybe. USG was going to build up forces anyhow, so Japan still has to conquer P.I.

Going back to a POD of MacArthur not being appointed (or KIA, or whatever), you've got to account for OTL USG budget constraints & whether anybody could get adequate artillery, & supplies of ammunition, medicines, smallarms, aircraft, & spares. They were all in desperately short supply OTL. Then, you've got to ask if anybody could get past OTL USG strictures on fortifying the islands, even after Japan abrogated the treaty prohibiting it... These might be possible, but IMO, achieving it is getting very near ASB territory.

Take out Mac, you improve the defense. A better commander (Wainwright?) might hit the Japanese on day one, as Brereton proposed, & screw the Japanese attack forces in harbor. Or he might disperse his aircraft, which allows both a stronger fighter defense when the Japanese come, & a more sustained air defense after they arrive. Or he might arrange to have the available food distributed instead of destroyed, & so hold the Japanese longer, which means his troops are healthier & in better morale longer, so less inclined to quit. Any or all these things will bugger the IJA timetable, & Japan's plans for conquest had virtually no slack in them. Holding a division or 2 in P.I. might deny 1 to Yamashita in Malaya, & enable even a twit like Percival to hold. It might draw in more CVs, giving Hart's subs a shot (admittedly, a tiny hazard to IJN, given how godawful:eek: the Mk6 exploder was, but Hart also had S-boats with Mk10 fish, & their exploders worked fine...). Given the dearth of spares & erks in P.I. (as I understand it), adding aircraft wasn't really a sensible option, but replacements might have been fought in. And maybe most important in the long run, the precious cryppies from Cast could've been gotten out entire. Take out Mac, you take out the mania for "return", avoid tying up CVs for over a months on CAS for the invasion, & avoid a 5mo P.I. campaign; instead, you can jump right to Okinawa, which is consequently less well-defended (troops having ended up there after being prohibited from reaching the P.I. by sub interdiction:D), & it's taken more quickly. So is Iwo, for the same reason.

In any case, there's also a bigger Q: what happens after the P.I. fall? Does Wainwright goto Oz, as Mac did? Or Hawaii? And if Oz, does he take Hart's subs with him:eek: as OTL, or do they go where (IMO) they should've gone, Hawaii? If they go to Hawaii, they become much more effective (even holding everything else equal), & the war is consequently shortened. (I've posted reasons why on other threads; just don't ask which ones.:eek:) This also offers butterflies to improve Sub Force performance over OTL beyond just the basing change, which is substantial alone; the reasons I won't repeat... (but if I can find the threads,:( I'll link 'em in:rolleyes:).

A longer defense in the P.I. also offers other butterflies. Does it persuade Pye to OK reinforcement of Wake? (If not, will he at least evac those brave Marines?!:mad:) Do his CVs encounter Soryu & Hiryu there? Damage them? (IMO, sinking them is a real long shot, given how much more experience IJNAF crews were.) Does it lead to drawing more IJN force in? Does it persuade Yamamoto a "Midway" against Hawaii is needed, to destroy the U.S. CVs? Does it at least persuade FDR not to insist on Doolittle's stunt flight to Tokyo? Or do Hornet & Yorktown arrive just in time to be thrown into battle against Nagumo's 6 CVs? (Are Doolittle's B-25s hastily converted to carry Mk13 torpedoes?:p Then slaughtered like VT-8 was?:eek:)

I could probably go on...:D
 
Top