pacifichistorian
Banned
1. Yes. 2. Maybe. USG was going to build up forces anyhow, so Japan still has to conquer P.I.In that case, would the war end more quickly if MacArthur's escape boat from Corregidor gets sunk? Or even better, if MacArthur is somehow prevented from ever taking command in the Philippines in the first place (killed in WWI or so forth)?
Going back to a POD of MacArthur not being appointed (or KIA, or whatever), you've got to account for OTL USG budget constraints & whether anybody could get adequate artillery, & supplies of ammunition, medicines, smallarms, aircraft, & spares. They were all in desperately short supply OTL. Then, you've got to ask if anybody could get past OTL USG strictures on fortifying the islands, even after Japan abrogated the treaty prohibiting it... These might be possible, but IMO, achieving it is getting very near ASB territory.
Take out Mac, you improve the defense. A better commander (Wainwright?) might hit the Japanese on day one, as Brereton proposed, & screw the Japanese attack forces in harbor. Or he might disperse his aircraft, which allows both a stronger fighter defense when the Japanese come, & a more sustained air defense after they arrive. Or he might arrange to have the available food distributed instead of destroyed, & so hold the Japanese longer, which means his troops are healthier & in better morale longer, so less inclined to quit. Any or all these things will bugger the IJA timetable, & Japan's plans for conquest had virtually no slack in them. Holding a division or 2 in P.I. might deny 1 to Yamashita in Malaya, & enable even a twit like Percival to hold. It might draw in more CVs, giving Hart's subs a shot (admittedly, a tiny hazard to IJN, given how godawful
In any case, there's also a bigger Q: what happens after the P.I. fall? Does Wainwright goto Oz, as Mac did? Or Hawaii? And if Oz, does he take Hart's subs with him
A longer defense in the P.I. also offers other butterflies. Does it persuade Pye to OK reinforcement of Wake? (If not, will he at least evac those brave Marines?!
I could probably go on...