How much of the world's population would starve without US food and grain exports?

It you didn't have US dumping practices in agricultural practices you'd likely see other areas pick up that have been hurt by US dumping practices.

When they are doing 35 bushel/acre Corn in Africa vs 200 bushel from the US, dumping really isn't the problem, it's poor soil, average seed with no fertilizer and insecticide

China does 100, Argentina 120
 
I have done this in some detail in the past (in ASB IIRC), but the U.S. exports somewhere in the area of 43% of the world's coarse grain, or did the year I did the original research (the figure varies year to year depending on grain yield).

While there are some back up sources, notably Canada, Argentina and Australia, they lack the capability to expand significantly. IMO what you get is severe famine in Africa, especially East Africa, where crop yields have never recovered from the 1980s, followed by serious issues in Pakistan. What is likely to happen is that the price of grain would skyrocket (with meat prices going flat out of sight), so the wealthier countries would be able to survive, albeit in a really screwed up global economy. Poor countries, especially those that rely on UN and NGO food shipments, will be badly damaged.

Any potential death toll depends on how long the loss of exports lasts. It takes a while to starve to death, assuming any food is available. It also very much depends on if it something limited to the U.S. (this is very unlkely, anything that takes the American crops out of the picture will almost certainly take out Canada's fields as well). If it is open ended, and includes Canada, 500M is not an unreasonable middle ground, with 1B being the utter worst case (these figures assume that North America can still feed itself, even if nothing is left to export).

Is that taking into account the cascading effects of supply line disruption? With US foodstuffs suddenly gone I can only imagine the chaos. Just working out the contracts and deals to reroute and re purpose remaining worldwide production will cause long term disruptions that will inevitably result in massive civil unrest. Paradoxically hard to transport rural foodstuffs to starving urban rioters. Governmental collapse or at least instability would probably close strategic waterways ( Suez/Panama Canals and the straits of Malacca) making it even harder to transport foodstuffs internationally. Since malnutrition and civil disorder tend to both lead to increases in transmittable diseases I'd pandemics and pandemic countermeasures both reaping their massive tolls.

I'm kind of imagining a somewhat gentler The Postman scenario.
 
When they are doing 35 bushel/acre Corn in Africa vs 200 bushel from the US, dumping really isn't the problem, it's poor soil, average seed with no fertilizer and insecticide

China does 100, Argentina 120
US dumping below market prices makes it difficult to compete. More go out of business and it is harder to get the capital to invest in modern farming techniques and technologies.

The lack of capital means Africa tends to have small low input farms (i.e small handpicking operations). This hampers proper resource development and results in poorer yields. http://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/detail/soils/use/?cid=nrcs142p2_054024

Since this isn't the ASB section the US agriculture won't just stop existing. They'll be some reasonable pod that means that the land get be taken advantage of. In which case the investment that went to the US would go to other places.
 
Not really, just have that giant aquifer in the Midwest dry up completely and well get another Dust bowl. Either that or a type of bug native to the US that kills crops.
You mean that giant aquifer that has shrunk to the point of not really being all that giant anymore? The Prairie and western states have been irresponsible in growth and water usage trying to recreate the Northeast living conditions. The Colorado river doesnt reach the Gulf of Mexico anymore and western states are pushing for a tap on the Mississippi and Great Lakes in a giant pipeline for water.
 

ben0628

Banned
You mean that giant aquifer that has shrunk to the point of not really being all that giant anymore? The Prairie and western states have been irresponsible in growth and water usage trying to recreate the Northeast living conditions. The Colorado river doesnt reach the Gulf of Mexico anymore and western states are pushing for a tap on the Mississippi and Great Lakes in a giant pipeline for water.

Sounds to me like the US is running out of water.
 
My Uncle mostly grows brewing Barley, feed Oats and Linseed but has grown wheat in the past. If the push came Britain could probably feed itself if everyone gave up meat and dairy and farmers concentrated on grains and pulses. It would be a very dull and windy diet but it would keep everyone alive.
 
Sounds to me like the US is running out of water.
the dry western states are getting drier. Agricultural practices are going to have to change, either to non-irrigation crops or maybe just converting fields into grazing lands. In any event, the US will likely be producing a lot less food in the not so distant future. As for the OP question, it's... complicated. A lot of the hungry people in the world are hungry because distribution is bad, not because there's no food to be had. OTOH, there are several places around the world where people are very hard up for protein, to the point that you have a thriving 'bush meat' trade, which is basically going out into the wild and killing every animal you run across. And then there's the factor of the appalling waste of food produced every year... roughly a third of all produced food, and half of all vegetables and fruit. Get a handle on that, and the world could feed a lot more people, or reduce the acreage we have tied up in food now...
 
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