How Much Of The Ottoman Empire Could Russia Realistically Annexed/Chipped Away In The Long-Term?

Here's an 1860 world map (OTL):
dKv4u.png


The obvious option for Russia is to try to expand into the Levant. There's a large Christian minority (Armenians, Greeks, Assyrians, Maronites) in this region that might be supportive of Russian rule; acquiring ports on the Mediterranean and Persian Gulf would definitely be a good idea for Russia. Possible map:

levant.png


I wonder how plausible this is... the prospect of a mostly Christian and Russian-speaking Mesopotamia/Levant is interesting...
 
How is any of that obvious? The obvious thing that Russia wants is to control the straits out of the Black Sea. But that's almost a pipe dream, since the British and others would never allow it.

Taking the Levant threatens British interests - and by 1860 the Suez Canal is under construction. Expect that if the Ottomans somehow broke through the mountainous regions of Armenia into the Middle East, the British would be there in force once more. Crimea War part two?

It would never work, much less lead to a "majority Christian, Russian speaking" middle east. Did British and French mandates in the region lead to a majority Christian, Anglo/Francophone middle east? Geography works against any Russian settlement in the region, since there's a whole vast region filled with natural resources any settlers who want to can move into - rather than having to cross the mountains into a region where the native inhabitants will be nothing but hostile.
 
Here's an 1860 world map (OTL):

The obvious option for Russia is to try to expand into the Levant. There's a large Christian minority (Armenians, Greeks, Assyrians, Maronites) in this region that might be supportive of Russian rule; acquiring ports on the Mediterranean and Persian Gulf would definitely be a good idea for Russia. Possible map:


I wonder how plausible this is... the prospect of a mostly Christian and Russian-speaking Mesopotamia/Levant is interesting...

I highly doubt the Russians can make it that far. Eastern Anatolia seems to be the best they can do.
 
The Russian goal was always Constantinople. The Treaty of Berlin in 1878 put a dent in their aims after almost bankrupting themselves during the Russo-Turkish War (1877-78). The one bright star to come out of it was that the Tsar got a free hand in Bulgaria. He hoped this would be the ally that would provide the leverage in the Balkans. The Tsar chose Alexander of Battenberg, and hoped he would be a suitable puppet, but when Alexander started making policies based on the best course for the Bulgarians, rather than Russia, he was kidnapped by Russian agents in 1887 and forced to abdicate. The subsequent Prince Ferdinand, chosen by the Bulgarians, proved no more palatable to the Tsar. There were thus further intrigues to remove the new prince so that the Tsar could once again try to install a regime favourable to Russia. Russia employed a disaffected Bulgarian officer, Major Panitza, to assassinate Prince Ferdinand and his prime minister, but the plot was foiled in February of 1890 and Panitza was executed.

Another shock for Russia was towards the end of the war with Turkey when Britain sent their Mediterranean fleet into the Sea of Marmora to deter further Russian advances. The Russian Black Sea fleet was almost non-existent at this time and could have done nothing to prevent the British from sailing into the Black Sea and wreaking havoc along the Russian coast. From this time on the Russians were determined to build a powerful Black Sea fleet, but they soon realized that even that would be unable to stop the Royal Navy from entering the Black sea at will. Following a further war scare with Britain in 1885, the Russians realized that in order to safeguard the Black Sea, they would need to take control of the narrow Bosporus straits at Constantinople. They made plans to capture the straits in a ‘coup de main’, by landing troops on either side of the seaway, supported by the guns of the Black Sea fleet. These soldiers would capture the Turkish forts, and install naval artillery to protect minefields to be laid in the straits. If the Royal Navy attempted to force the straits, then whatever ships survived the mines and naval artillery, could then be dealt with by the Black Sea Fleet.

The interesting point is would a truly pro-Russian Prince, either in 1879, 1887 or 1890 have led the Russian conquest of Constantinople? The lapse of the reinsurance treaty with Germany in 1890, against the wishes of the Tsar, ended the assurance of German neutrality in the adventure. The Tsar would therefore need the Bulgarians to engineer an incident with Turkey before that occurred. I believe that the Tsar wanted to use the annexation of Eastern Rumelia as the trigger, allowing Russia to step in to support Bulgaria. Unfortunately, the hated Alexander pulled that trigger, and the Tsar ended up being the one to protest that this broke the terms of the Berlin Treaty! It would also need to occur when the Black sea fleet was strong enough to support the operation, which didn't occur until 1890. Someone above mentioned it being a small window of opportunity, it would seem to be a small window indeed, and only if Bulgaria is pro-Russian.
 
Top