Russia has been the Ottoman's Empire greatest foe for chipping away at its territory from the Caucasus to Crimea while aiding independence groups in the Balkans. Now assuming if it took its time to industrialize and modernize (if it was needed) how much would Russia permanently annex parts of the Ottoman Empire and help other groups gain their independence from it (in terms of how much territory it could potentially chip off from the Ottomans)?
How Much Of The Ottoman Empire Could Russia Realistically Annexed/Chipped Away In The Long-Term?
- Thread starter TickTock The Witch's Dead
- Start date
Assuming Britain and France don't rush to the rescue when Russia actually threatens to annex the crap out of Ottomania the answer is literally everything Greece doesn't try to take at the last minute.
Just to be clear by "realistically" I also factored in nations like Britain, Austria, and France being involved in the situation on their respective sides. I think what you said can be possible as long as Russia doesn't try to aim for Constantinople not the Indian Ocean.
Realistically, I don't think it would be much more then OTL. There is a slim chance for Russia to get Constantinople, but the window of opportunity was very narrow. And it would not be the result of WWI, too late for that. Some more of eastern Anatolia is possible though.
I had the same thought too. I also wondered how far Russia would go in helping the Balkans gain their independence from the Ottomans. I would also see Greece potentially annexing a large part of Anatolia too.
Depends what you define as part of the Russian Empire. Do heavily influenced puppets count?
If so then Russia could set up puppets like Armenia, Kuristan, etc out of the the Ottoman Empires more eastern territory because it's quite difficult for the other powers to stop Russia there
If directly I could see all of Armenia and little more bits of eastern Anatolia. Can't take too much because the other nations don't want the Ottomana too weak
If so then Russia could set up puppets like Armenia, Kuristan, etc out of the the Ottoman Empires more eastern territory because it's quite difficult for the other powers to stop Russia there
If directly I could see all of Armenia and little more bits of eastern Anatolia. Can't take too much because the other nations don't want the Ottomana too weak
Actual physical occupation could be parts of Anatolia close to Russian territory in the Caucasus - certainly the Armenians would be all in for this. The BIG issue for Russia (whether Imperial or Soviet) is control of the Straits. Some sort of co-dominium with the "orthodox" powers of Greece, and to a lesser extent Bulgaria. Greece gets to be primum inter pares and physical control of most of Constantinople and the Straits, Bulgaria gets a bit of land, and the Russians get naval/military basing rights and free transit. Actual full on Russian control just won't happen - the British and French won't allow it during the Imperial period, and post 1917 especially post WWII the US jumps in. The co-dominium is probably the best the Russians can ever achieve, and IMHO this would be well before 1900 in the context of complete Greek liberation.
Puppets can count. Though Armenia wouldn't have much problems being annexed by Russia and Kurdistan wouldn't be happy under Russian influence though.
How much of Anatolia could Greece take? Western? Central as well?
Past the POD but if Turkey does slightly worse in WWI and the Russians don't fall to the Soviets then the Ottoman Empire/Turkey will likely cease to exist and the Russians take nearly all of eastern Turkey.
But that also applies earlier. If Britain and France ever decide that the Ottomans aren't worth their support then the Empire is getting divided up like a piece of meat by the European powers.
Any time as long as Russia and the Ottoman Empire both existed.
Eh, it depends. Several Kurdish tribes fought for Russia in the wars, and many others stayed neutral instead of joining the Ottoman side like they were formally expected to. There was even some small-scale migration of Kurds from Ottoman lands to the Russian Empire. Kurdistan wouldn't pose much of a problem to Russian influence or puppetization - for as long as they have the wisdom to keep Kurdish traditional structures in place and work through them.
So I believe Russia could annex much of eastern Anatolia (with Kurdistan preferably as a protectorate, not annexed), as well as the OTL Romanian and Bulgarian coastline down to Constantinople. Constantinople is where it gets tricky, because going for Constantinople will cause an extremely negative reaction in one or more of Russia's fellow great powers. There may be opportunities to seize it, but it would have to be very well timed and planned out. The rest of the Balkans - Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia, maybe Greece...could become Russian allies or protectorates. Not sure that Russia would necessarily be interested in allowing Greece to expand into Anatolia, but who knows.
Okay then, in theory, quite a bit depending on the time. You could have had the Ottomans being driven out of Crimea much earlier, lets say the Livonian war becomes a success, where Ivan IV is somehow able to make a lasting settlement, maybe emboldened by both his eastern and western conquests he goes south and defeats the Khanate of Crimea. From there, it's more of matter what Russia would with 3 areas of interest much earlier, from Butterflies an avoided Time of Troubles, and what could be done to weaken the Ottomans that early as well.
I still see even going after Anatolia to be a pipe dream unless they decide to set up puppets.
That's surprising considering the Kurds and Russians are religiously different. Not to mention Russia wants to protect Christian groups the Kurds were persecuting. So I'm not sure if there would really be an alliance.
Russia could use Greece as a puppet state controlled by one of its own (aka Romanovs). It can use Greece as a pretense to control Constantinople and all of Anatolia.
What happened already happened. This is about what could possible realistically happened. And Anatolia isn't always a pipe dream. They can annex the Armenian and Assyrian territories while getting Greece to conquer the rest of Anatolia.
You said from anytime Russia and the Ottoman Empire both existed, so I had some fun with the definition, and what could realistically happen.
Well what you said already happened though. I meant what else Russia could've done while it as it was and the Ottomans were still around.
No it didn't, Historically The Livonian War was a long drawn out stalemate, which Ivan IV lost, he was left with one son Feodor after killing his eldest Ivan, which would set the stage for the disruptive and violent Time of Troubles. Russia wouldn't go southward for a while.
Oh that. When you said something about Crimea I had something different in mind my apologies.