How much of China could Soviet Union capture in a Sino-Soviet war

kernals12

Banned
China would be a giant Vietnam. It's also inevitable that an all out war between those two countries would go nuclear, in fact IOTL in 1969 Kosygin told Nixon that Moscow was preparing a preemptive nuclear attack on China and wanted Washington to be Neutral. The President informed him that this was not possible.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
Say the Sino-Soviet border conflict lead to war between China and the Soviet Union

How much of China could Soviet Union capture in a Sino-Soviet war

Would they be able to capture Manchuria and Xinjiang


Definitely. Things can go to hell after that, but definitely the Soviet forces could slice through border areas.

After any length of time, fighting in China would get messy for the Soviets but I will disagree that all Chinese people would enthusiastically sacrifice themselves and sting in unison like a beehive collective on behalf of Queen Bee Mao.

There would be a substantial number of people and party officials willing to acquiesce to regime change to get a chance at relief from Cultural Revolution chaos and the Red Guards. The red guards themselves would be largely useless militarily too.

On the nuclear aspect, said the USsR does its strike on China anyway. Does Nixon go mad bomber on the Soviets right away, guaranteeing nuking of American, European and Japanesecities for Mao's sake?
 

Wallet

Banned
Definitely. Things can go to hell after that, but definitely the Soviet forces could slice through border areas.

After any length of time, fighting in China would get messy for the Soviets but I will disagree that all Chinese people would enthusiastically sacrifice themselves and sting in unison like a beehive collective on behalf of Queen Bee Mao.

There would be a substantial number of people and party officials willing to acquiesce to regime change to get a chance at relief from Cultural Revolution chaos and the Red Guards. The red guards themselves would be largely useless militarily too.

On the nuclear aspect, said the USsR does its strike on China anyway. Does Nixon go mad bomber on the Soviets right away, guaranteeing nuking of American, European and Japanesecities for Mao's sake?
China would be a giant Vietnam. It's also inevitable that an all out war between those two countries would go nuclear, in fact IOTL in 1969 Kosygin told Nixon that Moscow was preparing a preemptive nuclear attack on China and wanted Washington to be Neutral. The President informed him that this was not possible.
I don’t think Nixon would interfere. His mad dog theory was a massive bluff. There’s no way we can “win” in Vietnam while intervening in China.

But this does ruin his planned opening of China though
 
The USSR was more worried about the PLA suring into Mongolia and Siberia than actually taking lands from China. People's War is an incredibly effective strategy (so much so that NATO has written many volumes on it) and the Soviets knew that. So odds are they don't take any land at first and use nuclear weapons to win.
 
I don’t think Nixon would interfere. His mad dog theory was a massive bluff. There’s no way we can “win” in Vietnam while intervening in China.

But this does ruin his planned opening of China though

Still, in a nuclear exchange between the USSR and China, America could just stand back, watch the fireworks, and then intervene politically when the dust settles. Nixon doesn't need to nuke anyone, not unless either Mao (unlikely) or the Soviets (more likely) decide to take America with them.
 
Would they be able to capture Manchuria and Xinjiang
Almost certainly, though they'd likely establish them a puppets rather than incorporate them as SSRs. But that's after they burn a decent part of China to the ground in nuclear fire.

Does Nixon go mad bomber on the Soviets right away, guaranteeing nuking of American, European and Japanese cities for Mao's sake?
I find it unlikely that the USSR would go ahead with their planned nuclear strikes against China if they know Nixon will intervene. It may have been a bluff when Nixon told the Soviet's that nuking the Chinese would result war between the US and the USSR, but it was a bluff that the Soviet's weren't willing to call. You need someone other than Nixon in the White House or you need Nixon to believe that removing China is in the best interests of the United States and I don't see that happening. The anti-war Republicans certainly sound like the best options for getting a president who would not intervene. If Romney doesn't say he was brainwashed into supporting the Vietnam War he might be a pretty reasonable contender for the Republican nomination Nixon. Reagan certainly wasn't an anti-war Republican, but he might have viewed the Soviets and the Chinese going to war as beneficial for the United States and told the USSR that the US would not intervene.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
This is an interesting discussion on the mad bomber Theory. I thought the most controversial part of my post would be where I suggested the Chinese might not have unwavering patriotic unity against USSR.

@El Terremoto - is an invasion of Mongolia and the USSR really people's war? There would not be any Chinese people living there for the Chinese Army to blend in with?
 
This is an interesting discussion on the mad bomber Theory. I thought the most controversial part of my post would be where I suggested the Chinese might not have unwavering patriotic unity against USSR.

@El Terremoto - is an invasion of Mongolia and the USSR really people's war? There would not be any Chinese people living there for the Chinese Army to blend in with?

I meant in the way that you can't really invade China without nuclear weapons then, and they were worried about a counter-offensive being so massive they could not resist.
 

Wallet

Banned
Of all the possible 1968 winners (LBJ, RFK, McCarthy, McGovern, EMK, Nixon, Romney, Reagan, Rookerfeller) I really doubt any of them would want thousands of tons of radiation in the atmosphere that would cause global crop failures and slowly drift west over the pacific. Or the resulting millions of Chinese refugees that need a place to go.
 
Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia are the easiest due to the ethnic diversity and relatively low population. Manchuria is doable because it's a simple matter of cutting it off at Shanhaiguan (where the Great Wall meets the Yellow Sea), but the Soviets would be fools to annex it with its 60 million+ Han Chinese population. Anything else dooms the Soviet Army to the Japanese WWII experience.

It'd be a good option for Moscow not to break any territory off of the PRC (not even ethnic minority regions), but instead set up a third Chinese regime alongside the PRC and ROC that follows Soviet-style socialism and lays claim to all of China. A large city in Manchuria like Shenyang or Changchun could serve as the capital; meanwhile, Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia would be "Chinese" autonomous regions" but effectively separate from PRC (Manchuria) governance. This way the Soviet Union can say that it has no designs on Chinese sovereignty, but is simply curbing Maoist deviancy.
 

Md139115

Banned
Kick
China would be a giant Vietnam. It's also inevitable that an all out war between those two countries would go nuclear, in fact IOTL in 1969 Kosygin told Nixon that Moscow was preparing a preemptive nuclear attack on China and wanted Washington to be Neutral. The President informed him that this was not possible.

Honestly, at the risk of sounding like the most heartless brute on AH.com, Nixon passed up a golden opportunity.
 

kernals12

Banned
Honestly, at the risk of sounding like the most heartless brute on AH.com, Nixon passed up a golden opportunity.
Passing over the hundreds of millions who would die in China, you do realize the effects of the attack wouldn't be isolated to China. Even a limited attack would cause a substantial nuclear winter.
 
The Nationalists aren’t exactly going to sit still. Some in the generalissimos Court actually urged an roc Ussr alliance aganist the great helmsmen.
 
The red guards themselves would be largely useless militarily too.

God almighty, a war fought by the Red Guards.

"Okay kids, when you're done beating your commanding officers to death for taking off their dunce caps too soon, could you maybe look into getting some regiments out to the front lines?"
 
Passing over the hundreds of millions who would die in China, you do realize the effects of the attack wouldn't be isolated to China. Even a limited attack would cause a substantial nuclear winter.

To be fair, Mao diden't particularly care if hundreds of millions of people (Including Chinese) died either, provided the survivors were Communists. Certainly, with the benefit of hindsight we can see that China turns away from the more (guano)-insane policies of The Cultural Revolution and becomes a state that can fit within the international system, but at the time there was a very real belief that the fundimentalism they were embracing could lead to a breakdown of the fragile global peace the understanding between the US and USSR perpetuated to the benefit of the whole world.
 

kernals12

Banned
To be fair, Mao diden't particularly care if hundreds of millions of people (Including Chinese) died either, provided the survivors were Communists. Certainly, with the benefit of hindsight we can see that China turns away from the more (guano)-insane policies of The Cultural Revolution and becomes a state that can fit within the international system, but at the time there was a very real belief that the fundimentalism they were embracing could lead to a breakdown of the fragile global peace the understanding between the US and USSR perpetuated to the benefit of the whole world.
I'd say that Nixon's effort to drive a wedge between Russia and China worked out well and was better for our interests than if the Soviets had nuked China and put up a puppet government subservient to Moscow.
 
Top