How much of China could Russia have expanded into from 1815 to 1914?

I can see why the rest of Europe would not like Russia in too much of China. Yet if Russia keeps away from places like Hong Kong and Shanghai, wouldn't Europe think "At least they're not buggering about on our boarders"?

Well just looking at OTL, the British engaged in two wars with China that were about keeping it open to trade and which were viewed as matters of national security. Also in our TL, Britain spent much of the century in question doing everything in its power to limit Russian expansionism.

France might be comfortable with strengthening Russia as a threat to Germany (for example), but not if it came at the perceived cost of France losing access to China, or if Russia was so caught up in the east that it gave up its ambitions in europe.

Germany would be pleased with a distracted Russia, but not at the cost of increasing its potential power that dramatically. Think from their perspective - they have to consider the possibility that Russia might successfully incorporate China into its empire. A "Russia" with natural borders on the South China Sea could be an existential threat to its European neighbors. And if they were anything like the OTL Germans, they'd also want access to China for themselves.

Meanwhile, the United States would be even more displeased than their monarchical cousins - America had a huge interest in China and its markets being open, and good relations with its various regimes. They hated the idea of Japan moving in and taking over the place, and would not likely be more friendly about the Russians doing so.

The Europeans weren't at Hong Kong and Shanghai because those were the places where all the value was. They were there because from those port cities they could get access to the largest single potential market on the planet. If the Russians are a hundred miles up river, it affects the ports almost as much as would camping outside their walls.
 
Thanks for all the comments.

I am moving in this direction for my Quasi-War IV timeline that I'm currently running. I'm thinking that Manchuria and Xichuan and parts of Inner Mongolia (basically the Great Wall of China would make up most of the border) may be the extend of Russian power as their navy wasn't overly large and a true trans-siberian railroad was a long way off.

Russia conquering Beijing or Canton would be way out of the realm of reality given the sheer demographic and logistical considerations.

Also, in my TL, I have China being torn apart by the numerous rebellions going on in the 1850's. Russia's invasion of Manchuria may be the final nail in the coffin of the Qing Dynasty.
 
Thanks for all the comments.

I am moving in this direction for my Quasi-War IV timeline that I'm currently running. I'm thinking that Manchuria and Xichuan and parts of Inner Mongolia (basically the Great Wall of China would make up most of the border) may be the extend of Russian power as their navy wasn't overly large and a true trans-siberian railroad was a long way off.

Russia conquering Beijing or Canton would be way out of the realm of reality given the sheer demographic and logistical considerations.

Also, in my TL, I have China being torn apart by the numerous rebellions going on in the 1850's. Russia's invasion of Manchuria may be the final nail in the coffin of the Qing Dynasty.

Why Xichuan?
 
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