How much of a boost to Japan's economy, if any, could a retained Taiwan have given?

[ETK023]

Let's assume that Japan was able to keep Taiwan post-WW2. You can come up with any reasons as to why this happens, but, for the sake of the thread, I'll just say that the KMT lost the Chinese Civil War early, and thus the US doesn't have a friendly China to hand Taiwan over to.

To my knowledge, Taiwan had two major population events take place in the years following WW2. The first was the expulsion of, according to Wikipedia, approximately 300,000 Japanese from the island, whilst the second was the flight of Waishengren following the KMT's defeat.

The OTL Waishengren will, presumably, not flee to the island, though some Chinese may immigrate to the island in later years. If I recall correctly, the Japanese residents of Taiwan never made up the same numbers that the Waishengren later would. All this means that the population of Taiwan will likely be smaller TTL.

All this said, how much of a boost, if any, would this give the Japanese economy? I'll lay out two scenarios:

Scenario 1: TTL Japan follows economic policies mostly the same as OTL Japan.

Scenario 2: TTL Japan pursues a "wanked" economic policy, though I'm unsure of what that would be, if it were even possible.

 

[Nivek]

Let's assume that Japan was able to keep Taiwan post-WW2. You can come up with any reasons as to why this happens, but, for the sake of the thread, I'll just say that the KMT lost the Chinese Civil War early, and thus the US doesn't have a friendly China to hand Taiwan over to.

To my knowledge, Taiwan had two major population events take place in the years following WW2. The first was the expulsion of, according to Wikipedia, approximately 300,000 Japanese from the island, whilst the second was the flight of Waishengren following the KMT's defeat.

The OTL Waishengren will, presumably, not flee to the island, though some Chinese may immigrate to the island in later years. If I recall correctly, the Japanese residents of Taiwan never made up the same numbers that the Waishengren later would. All this means that the population of Taiwan will likely be smaller TTL.

All this said, how much of a boost, if any, would this give the Japanese economy? I'll lay out two scenarios:

Scenario 1: TTL Japan follows economic policies mostly the same as OTL Japan.

Scenario 2: TTL Japan pursues a "wanked" economic policy, though I'm unsure of what that would be, if it were even possible.

I think would be a white noise.. like yeah a little of more starting capital and resources but the resources weren't invested there, would go to Korea or India ITTL

 

[ETK023]

I think would be a white noise.. like yeah a little of more starting capital and resources but the resources weren't invested there, would go to Korea or India ITTL

Interesting, and how do you think this would effect Korea TTL? Could it result in South Korea winning the Korean War, or being notably wealthier than OTL?

I must ask, would the US really invest in India during the Cold War? It was my understanding that relations between the two countries were somewhat strained, as India was perceived to be a Soviet-leaning state, though not an outright part of the Second World.

 

[Nivek]

Interesting, and how do you think this would effect Korea TTL? Could it result in South Korea winning the Korean War, or being notably wealthier than OTL?

the latter, remember a lot of Taiwan investment come as that was the original china till nixon threw it under the bus for PROC, and later on the investment fueled to the PROC market, also the outsourcing of microchips fables thanks to the microconductor agreement that cripple japan even if they didn't realized it. As Taiwan is part of Japan, they get similar investment as OTL but the late investment is gone, now going to ROK and India

 

[Sekhmet_D]

All this means that the population of Taiwan will likely be smaller TTL.

Not unless the Japanese decide to settle Taiwan en masse now that they retain it, thus filling the vacuum ITTL that the now-absent wai sheng ren have left. We might end up looking at a majority Japanese population as people leave the cities ruined by WW2 for sunnier climes down south.

 

[Citycat]

Taiwan would be a backwater if it was part of Japan. Probably worse off than IOTL.

 

[DankStalin]

Actually a question, was Taiwan heavily devastated in WW2? Cause if not that much, I would agree with @ Sekhmet_D that there might a sizeable amount of Japanese moving to Taiwan to escape a bombed out Japan.

 

[duckie]

Beyound economics, the military implications would be hugh. The chinese would find it much harder to crack the first island chain and american bases on taiwan would be an end for all of their ambition in the South China Sea.

 

[Sekhmet_D]

Actually a question, was Taiwan heavily devastated in WW2? Cause if not that much, I would agree with @ Sekhmet_D that there might a sizeable amount of Japanese moving to Taiwan to escape a bombed out Japan.

The damage was moderate.

American air raids hit Taiwan from November 1943 to August 1945; these ranged from small strikes on ports and airfields mounted by carrier planes, to a 100 strong B-24 raid on Taipei.

Throughout this entire duration a total of some 5000 civilian deaths resulted, 3000 of whom died during the Taipei raid alone, and some 45,000 buildings of various types ranging from factories to private residences were destroyed or damaged.

This is peanuts compared to what Tokyo, Yokohama, Nagoya and so on had to endure.

 

[walmart]

Nobody wanted this in either Japan or Taiwan.

 

[Lee-Sensei]

Nobody wanted this in either Japan or Taiwan.

I can see the Taiwanese not wanting this, but did the Japanese really want to give up Taiwan?

 

[walmart]

but did the Japanese really want to give up Taiwan?

Given this means integrating a large Chinese population into the Japanese state, yes.

 

[Sekhmet_D]

Given this means integrating a large Chinese population into the Japanese state, yes.

I see no evidence whatsoever that the Japanese were reluctant to retain Taiwan for any reason, including the one you're putting forward here. The Han Chinese population of Taiwan was largely docile and compliant all throughout Japan's rule, much like that other Chinese population within the Japanese empire, which pre-dated even the occupation of Taiwam - the Chinese enclave in Nagasaki.

 

[walmart]

see no evidence whatsoever that the Japanese were reluctant to retain Taiwan for any reason, including the one you're putting forward here.

A population which is poorer, non-Japanese, numbers in millions, and regarded as racial inferior. This is fine and all for a colony not an integrated part of Japan .

 

[Sekhmet_D]

A population which is poorer, non-Japanese, numbers in millions, and regarded as racial inferior. This is fine and all for a colony not an integrated part of Japan .

An integrated part of Japan that would still be comfortably seperated from the Home Islands by a thousand plus kilometre stretch of seawater.

 

[walmart]

An integrated part of Japan that would still be comfortably seperated from the Home Islands by a thousand plus kilometre stretch of seawater.

I don't see how this is an argument for Japanese integration of Taiwan if anything it is an argument in favor of Japan not retaining the Island. Nations don’t just map paint for the hell of it .

 

[Lee-Sensei]

Given this means integrating a large Chinese population into the Japanese state, yes.

I might agree with you if it upset the demographic balance. Japanese people would still be by far the majority of Japan if they kept Taiwan. If we assume they maintain the same populations that they do today, that would be a total population of 149 million. 125 million Japanese. 24 million Taiwanese. The Japanese would still have a supermajority.

 

[walmart]

I might agree with you if it upset the demographic balance. Japanese people would still be by far the majority of Japan if they kept Taiwan. If we assume they maintain the same populations that they do today, that would be a total population of 149 million. 125 million Japanese. 24 million Taiwanese. The Japanese would still have a supermajority.

14% is 14% too much for many .

 

[Cryptic]

Actually a question, was Taiwan heavily devastated in WW2?

Taiwan got off lightly in WWII.

Though a mass landing was contemplated in the general sense by the USA, Mac Arthur's "Return to the Philippines" was given strategic and political priority. This was then followed by Iwo Jima and Okinawa leaving Taiwan by passed.

Taiwan was not only spared a landing, and was also spared strategic bombing campaigns. It was, however, subjected to some large scale carrier raids in the final stages of the war. Even still, these raids only targeted military infrastructure and were pretty light by WWII aerial campaign standards.

As a trivia side note, fear of a Taiwan landing forced the Japanese high command to relocate a division from Okinawa to Taiwan. This reduced the main force component of the Okinawa defenders by more than a third.