How much more powerful would the Habsburgs have become with a third (English) branch a.k.a. How screwed is France (and Scotland)?

[Janprimus]

England would NOT be in union with either Austria or Spain but ONLY with the Netherlands. With this POD Mary would marry Charles V (who is Emperor but NOT ruler of Austria and Spain would be mostly under Philip’s regency). And what religious wars? Unlikely they will be much involved in the German or French ones and here England would pass from the Henrician church (who was still pretty much Catholic in doctrine and practice) back to the Catholic Church (and Scotland and Netherlands would remain mostly Catholic in this scenario)

Indeed, though naturally ties between Spain and a lesser degree Austria will be strong. They as part of the Habsburg family firm will be entangled in their struggle against their common foe.
Also England will have their own monarch, unlike Portugal, which shared their monarch after a point with Castile & Aragon, this will still be an ambition for the Spanish Habsburg branch, just like how the Austrian Habsburg branch will want to reconquer the whole of the kingdom of Hungary (including the kingdom of Croatia).
In a same vain the English Habsburgs would probably continue an already existing ambition of the English monarchy uniting the British Isles. With their Burgundian possessions England now with Spain shares the brunt of the burden in the conflicts with France, Austria contrast will probably only contribute in Italian campaigns or when the Empire is threatened.

 

[ordinarylittleme]

this will still be an ambition for the Spanish Habsburg branch

What will be?

 

[Math]

Will we see a more militarized England in this timeline?, Having possession of burgundy and the France bordering England will likely have to have a Considerable garrison for any conflict with the French, Probably leading to a creation of a standing army in Burgundy?

 

[Math]

What will be?

I think he is referring to Portugal, That the union with Portugal will still be a Spanish ambition.

 

[Janprimus]

I think he is referring to Portugal, That the union with Portugal will still be a Spanish ambition.

Correct, I might have been a bit brief there, but the Iberian Unification, was something the Spanish Habsburgs inherited from the Trastamara side of the family, OTOH it is often overlooked that the Austro-Burgundian side has a good Portuguese pedigree (mother of Charles the Bold and the mother of Maximilian of Austria were Portuguese Infantas).
It's comparable to the Austrian branch, which wanted to regain the kingdoms of Bohemia and Hungary, briefly held by the Albertine branch of the Habsburgs (Charles V, Ferdinand of Austria etc. ultmately belonged to the Leopoldine Branch).

 

[Taunay]

Correct, I might have been a bit brief there, but the Iberian Unification, was something the Spanish Habsburgs inherited from the Trastamara side of the family, OTOH it is often overlooked that the Austro-Burgundian side has a good Portuguese pedigree (mother of Charles the Bold and the mother of Maximilian of Austria were Portuguese Infantas).
It's comparable to the Austrian branch, which wanted to regain the kingdoms of Bohemia and Hungary, briefly held by the Albertine branch of the Habsburgs (Charles V, Ferdinand of Austria etc. ultmately belonged to the Leopoldine Branch).

Sebastian and the end of the Avis could very well be butterflied by this POD

 

[hirsch91]

English Habsburgs (grandson Arthur): England, Ireland, Burgundy, Low Countries, Klein-Venedig/Welserland.

If the English were to get Venezuela, would they even bother colonizing North America? I've read somewhere that the Pilgrims considered settling in Guyana. Also, the islands of Trinidad and Tobago would offer themselves as sugar colonies since they're pretty close.

 

[cex]

If the English were to get Venezuela, would they even bother colonizing North America? I've read somewhere that the Pilgrims considered settling in Guyana. Also, the islands of Trinidad and Tobago would offer themselves as sugar colonies since they're pretty close.

Then who would instead? The French?

 

[Math]

The French?

If they want, the Habsburgs can block the French from the americas, maybe the Portuguese? Or the dutch Even if the English don't want it, there will still be the Dutch that ITTL will be English subjects.

 

[ordinarylittleme]

Then who would instead? The French?

Why would they bother?

 

[holycookie]

Why would they bother?

Well at the otl they at the beginning of the 16th century were interested in colonization. Brazil, for example, was in the middle of an intense dispute between the French and Portuguese, with neither side knowing who would win the dispute over the region. Who could have kept Venezuela was the company of German bankers who won the right of colonization from the emperor in exchange for zeroing or reducing the debt.

 

[Tudorfan]

Edward, Prince of Wales dies of quartan fever/malaria in October 1541,and King Henry VIII is dead by 1542 along with James V due to shock/grief/infected leg ulcer.

Anyway, with no male heirs sired by Henry left, Mary seizes the throne and in 1543, marries Philip, King of Naples and Sicily.

Well, first of all, c.1542, Mary and Elizabeth are illegitimate. Edward is Henry's only legitimate heir - next is Mary Tudor, Queen of France's kids... so Mary is, legally, a usurper.

 

[cex]

Well, first of all, c.1542, Mary and Elizabeth are illegitimate. Edward is Henry's only legitimate heir - next is Mary Tudor, Queen of France's kids... so Mary is, legally, a usurper.

Mary's grandmother and grandfather seized their thrones 'illegally' as well.

 

[Tudorfan]

Mary's grandmother and grandfather seized their thrones 'illegally' as well.

Yes, but this is England and there is an Act of Succession passed legally by Parliament in 1536 stating that Mary and Elizabeth are illegitimate (and remember, IOTL Mary staked her claim on obeying the 1543 Act of Succession, so she'd obey it here too!), meaning that Frances Brandon is next in line since Margaret Tudor's line is barred (c. 1536) and Mary and Liz are illegitimate...

 

[cex]

Yes, but this is England and there is an Act of Succession passed legally by Parliament in 1536 stating that Mary and Elizabeth are illegitimate (and remember, IOTL Mary staked her claim on obeying the 1543 Act of Succession, so she'd obey it here too!), meaning that Frances Brandon is next in line since Margaret Tudor's line is barred (c. 1536) and Mary and Liz are illegitimate...

The Howards hate the Brandons, the Catholics are perfectly satisfied with Mary, the Brandons have no appeal whatsoever to Protestants etc.

 

[Tudorfan]

The Howards hate the Brandons, the Catholics are perfectly satisfied with Mary, the Brandons have no appeal whatsoever to Protestants etc.

No, the Howards hate Charles Brandon. They actually historically didn't really give a toss either way as to Frances. Her idiot husband they hated, yes, but her they could take or leave...

 

[TimTurner]

No, the Howards hate Charles Brandon. They actually historically didn't really give a toss either way as to Frances. Her idiot husband they hated, yes, but her they could take or leave...

How was Frances' political profile distinct from her husband, and from Charles?

 

[Tudorfan]

How was Frances' political profile distinct from her husband, and from Charles?

Well, most people were aware that she was not, in fact, a colossal idiot like her husband. As for Charles, he's loyal to Henry, so he'd carry out Henry's will, so there'd be all of Suffolk's might behind Frances and Dorset behind her husband.

She and Mary are also fond of one another, so she has that going for her as well. And she hated Anne Boleyn, so Mary would stand by her in that respect too.

 

[cex]

No, the Howards hate Charles Brandon. They actually historically didn't really give a toss either way as to Frances. Her idiot husband they hated, yes, but her they could take or leave...

And why would Henry regard Frances Brandon above Mary and Elizabeth? In 1541, after the execution of Cromwell, the religious conservatives (Gardiner, Bonner, Wriothesley, Howard) had Henry's ear, and *all* of them were hostile to Frances Brandon's reformist sympathies. Henry, who is impotent and dying in any event, has little incentive to put Frances on the throne. In the extremely unlikely event that he somehow changes his mind on Luther and Calvin, he will choose Elizabeth, not Frances.

 

[Tudorfan]

And why would Henry regard Frances Brandon above Mary and Elizabeth? In 1541, after the execution of Cromwell, the religious conservatives (Gardiner, Bonner, Wriothesley, Howard) had Henry's ear, and *all* of them were hostile to Frances Brandon's reformist sympathies. Henry, who is impotent and dying in any event, has little incentive to put Frances on the throne. In the extremely unlikely event that he somehow changes his mind on Luther and Calvin, he will choose Elizabeth, not Frances.

Well, Frances did not have reformist sympathies. Mary was fond of her and she loathed everyone with reformer sympathies. Regardless of the how and why, per Henry 1536 act of Succession (assuming it's not been changed before he dies), Mary and Elizabeth have no claim, nor do any of Margaret Tudor's offspring, so next is Frances.