How much more powerful would the Habsburgs have become with a third (English) branch a.k.a. How screwed is France (and Scotland)?

[cex]

Edward, Prince of Wales dies of quartan fever/malaria in October 1541,and King Henry VIII is dead by 1542 along with James V due to shock/grief/infected leg ulcer.

Anyway, with no male heirs sired by Henry left, Mary seizes the throne and in 1543, marries Philip, King of Naples and Sicily. Obviously, being less-stressed and ovarian cancer-free, Mary and Philip have an heir (Arthur), spare (Philip Jr.) and two daughters (Catherine, Isabella).

In 1556, an abdicating Charles V performs a threeway division of his Empire:

Spanish Habsburgs (son Philip): Castile, Aragon, Milan, Spanish Empire, and Portugal and his Empire after Charles' death when the Aviz succession goes down the toilet.
English Habsburgs (grandson Arthur): England, Ireland, Burgundy, Low Countries, Klein-Venedig/Welserland.
Austrian Habsburgs (brother Ferdinand) : Austria, Hungary, Bohemia, Holy Roman Empire.

Anyway, in such a scenario, how screwed would Valois France and Mary, Queen of Scots be? The Scottish Reformation is likely to be aborted here, since Mary Tudor is likely to have burned John Knox and if not, any aristocratic Protestant revival is likely to be overthrown with military force by Arthur.

 

[ordinarylittleme]

Mary, Queen of Scots

Unlikely to go to France ITTL as this was only done IOTL to prevent her forced marriage to Edward

 

[FouDuRoy]

Anyway, with no male heirs sired by Henry left, Mary seizes the throne and in 1543, marries Philip, King of Naples and Sicily. Obviously, being less-stressed and ovarian cancer-free, Mary and Philip have an heir (Arthur), spare (Philip Jr.) and two daughters (Catherine, Isabella).

In 1543, Philip has no son yet.
If he marries Mary at this time, that means their eldest son will be heir to both Spain and England. I am not sure this marriage will be accepted in these conditions.
Also, Philip was only 16 years old in 1543. Would the 27 years old Mary want such a young husband?

when the Aviz succession goes down the toilet.

Would the "Aviz succession go[] down the toilet"?
First of all, with a POD in 1541, butterflies can make Sebastian I totally different. He may even become a girl.
Also, if Philip marries Mary in 1543, it implies he does not marry Maria-Manuella who is next-in-line for the Portuguese throne after her brother. Even assuming everything turns out as in OTL for João Manuel and Sebastian, Maria-Manuella may produce heirs.

Anyway, in such a scenario, how screwed would Valois France and Mary, Queen of Scots be?

Mary is not sent to France. Would she still marry the dauphin? I am inclinated to think that a Scottish-raised Mary would try to maintain Scottish independance and would refuse to marry the heir to another throne. My guess is that she would still marry a French prince (in order to maintain the alliance against England) but not the dauphin.
As for the Valois, their extinction is probably butteflied away. With such an early POD, it is not even sure Henri II and Catherine de Medici would have the same children as in OTL. I guess they would try to install discord between the Habsburg branches.

 

[ordinarylittleme]

Also, Philip was only 16 years old in 1543

Also engaged to Maria Manuela....she'd be likelier to go for Charles

 

[TimTurner]

I guess they would try to install discord between the Habsburg branches.

That would be the natural way to deal with them. It is after all how the Capets dealt with the Angevins...

 

[Math]

That would be the natural way to deal with them. It is after all how the Capets dealt with the Angevins...

Yes, but I doubt that the Austrians will fight the Spanish, they need Spain's help to fight the Ottomans, I think that intra-family marriages would make discord a little more difficult, of the three branches the most likely to fight with each other would be English and Spanish, This could be either for the Americas or for a claim by one branch on the throne of the other (If the English king is the son of Felipe or the two are brothers of father and mother in a scenario that Mary gives birth to two children), but I think the three branches would see France as a unifying enemy (the Ottomans too, There are also Protestants, especially if they start to cause problems in the south of England. ),

 

[Mildtryth]

Would the "Aviz succession go[] down the toilet"?
First of all, with a POD in 1541, butterflies can make Sebastian I totally different. He may even become a girl.
Also, if Philip marries Mary in 1543, it implies he does not marry Maria-Manuella who is next-in-line for the Portuguese throne after her brother. Even assuming everything turns out as in OTL for João Manuel and Sebastian, Maria-Manuella may produce heirs.

An on a POD that early, Duarte of Guimarães might outlive Sebastião as well and end up being the one who succeeds him instead of Henrique. or maybe Sebastião is never born and Duarte succeeds João III instead.

 

[funnyhat]

This would seem to be better for the Spanish Habsburgs, since they are avoided the problem of dealing with the Low Countries (although they might choose to get involved anyway). England otoh is now committed to the Continent and can't ignore it when it wants. Whether this situation is good or bad for France will dependent on whether the three branches remain aligned. It's obviously in France's interest to isolate the English branch but there probably will also be a faction in London that wants the monarch to act independently and not be a Spanish puppet.

If the English branch is isolated, that's possibly better for France than OTL as the English do not have the resources of OTL Spain and cannot expand as aggressively overseas, due to their commitments on the continent.

 

[GuildedAgeNostalgia]

Does the English branch get the Netherlands? That means Spain won't have the money sink anymore and can secure their colonial empire since they'll have more wealth.

Also a Hapsburg England makes colonial expansion interesting. Do they go after Spanish colonies?

 

[cex]

In 1543, Philip has no son yet.
If he marries Mary at this time, that means their eldest son will be heir to both Spain and England. I am not sure this marriage will be accepted in these conditions.
Also, Philip was only 16 years old in 1543. Would the 27 years old Mary want such a young husband?

Didn't Castile and Aragon accept Miguel da Paz, a foreigner, as their heir? If so, why not Arthur, a Catholic Englishman who, unlike Miguel, can speak Castilian?

Yes, but I doubt that the Austrians will fight the Spanish, they need Spain's help to fight the Ottomans, I think that intra-family marriages would make discord a little more difficult, of the three branches the most likely to fight with each other would be English and Spanish, This could be either for the Americas or for a claim by one branch on the throne of the other (If the English king is the son of Felipe or the two are brothers of father and mother in a scenario that Mary gives birth to two children), but I think the three branches would see France as a unifying enemy (the Ottomans too, There are also Protestants, especially if they start to cause problems in the south of England. ),

Could we get a second Treaty of Tordesillas partitioning North America between England and Spain?

 

[ordinarylittleme]

Didn't Castile and Aragon accept Miguel da Paz, a foreigner, as their heir?

Miguel was the heir of the heiress to Castile and Aragon, and Spain and Portugal were part of the same island. England....isn't

 

[isabella]

Didn't Castile and Aragon accept Miguel da Paz, a foreigner, as their heir? If so, why not Arthur, a Catholic Englishman who, unlike Miguel, can speak Castilian?

Miguel was NOT a foreigner and was raised mostly in Castile. Maybe you mean Charles V? They likely would NOT wish for another foreigner at this point. Still in 1543 Mary would be far likelier to get her wish and marry Charles V than being pushed to Philip, who at sixteen is way too young for her AND already engaged to the second-in-line for the Portuguese Crown.

Charles V in 1543 would be 43 and had not yet fathered his last OTL son (Juan of Austria), so he would be still able to generate children and Isabella had died 4 years earlier. Charles marrying Mary and generating children with her is far likelier than Mary marrying Philip in this scenario. Keep in mind who at this point, marrying Mary, Charles would be able to leave Philip as regent in Castile and Aragon and establish his main residence between his own beloved Netherlands and his wife’s England. Mary Stuart in this scenario would be raised in Scotland and likely would be eventually engaged to Charles V and Mary Tudor‘s eldest son bringing Scotland in union with England and the Netherlands (who would go to Charles and Mary’s eldest son, while a second boy could get Milan instead of Philip)

 

[FouDuRoy]

Didn't Castile and Aragon accept Miguel da Paz, a foreigner, as their heir? If so, why not Arthur, a Catholic Englishman who, unlike Miguel, can speak Castilian?

Miguel was the heir of the heiress to Castile and Aragon, and Spain and Portugal were part of the same island. England....isn't

The same island? I guess you meant the same peninsula.
That's not the point anyway. I was thinking more of the problem coming from England. Spain was the superpower of the time. In an union with England, Spain would be the dominant partner, even with an English-raised king. Most likely "Arthur" would leave London for Madrid as soon as he inherits Spain and would rule his realms from there. The English would hate the idea. Actually, even in OTL, Mary's marriage to Philip was very unpopular in England. It was the main reason for the Rebellion of Wyatt. And, in OTL, Philip already had a son to inherit Spain meaning his marriage to Mary was not even supposed to lead to a Spain/England union.

Also engaged to Maria Manuela....she'd be likelier to go for Charles

Miguel was NOT a foreigner and was raised mostly in Castile. Maybe you mean Charles V? They likely would NOT wish for another foreigner at this point. Still in 1543 Mary would be far likelier to get her wish and marry Charles V than being pushed to Philip, who at sixteen is way too young for her AND already engaged to the second-in-line for the Portuguese Crown.

I definitely agree.
At this time, a marriage with Charles makes much more sense than with Philip, for various reasons:
-not implying Spain/England union, making it more acceptable to the English,
-no need to break Philip's engagement to Maria-Manuela,
-likely prefered by Mary herself.
Charles did not want to remarry after Isabella's death but he may reluctantly agree because you know... politics.

An on a POD that early, Duarte of Guimarães might outlive Sebastião as well and end up being the one who succeeds him instead of Henrique. or maybe Sebastião is never born and Duarte succeeds João III instead.

Henrique came before Duarte in the succession line. But, yes, if Duarte survives and/or has a son, he or his son would be Henrique's undisputable heir (assuming João III's line still comes to an end ITTL, which is not even sure).

Could we get a second Treaty of Tordesillas partitioning North America between England and Spain?

The Spanish would probably... dislike the idea, to say the least.
But maybe, yes, the English could want a renegotiation of the Treaty of Tordesillas. This would be a common cause with the French (cf Francis I's famous quote about Adam's will).

Mary Stuart in this scenario would be raised in Scotland and likely would be eventually engaged to Charles V and Mary Tudor‘s eldest son bringing Scotland in union with England and the Netherlands

There is no way anyone in Scotland could agree with that.
Maybe Mary Stuart would marry the second son but definitely not the eldest one. A French prince is far more likely for her anyway.
The eldest son of Charles V and Mary Tudor would likely marry a daughter of Philip (either by Maria Manuela either by Maria of Viseu). How long this game can work despite inbreeding is an open question.

a second boy could get Milan instead of Philip)

Maybe.
Or maybe Charles, duke of Angoulême and later Orléans, survives ITTL and is the one becoming duke of Milan as part of the Treaty of Crépy.

 

[Mildtryth]

Henrique came before Duarte in the succession line. But, yes, if Duarte survives and/or has a son, he or his son would be Henrique's undisputable heir (assuming João III's line still comes to an end ITTL, which is not even sure).

Having another legitimate possible heir in the male line might result in Henrique being passed over due to being a cardinal, though.

Anyway, the POD was 1541 - by then, all of João III's children save for João Manuel and Maria Manuela were dead, although there is the possibility of Catherine having another child or João Manuel living longer.

 

[ordinarylittleme]

There is no way anyone in Scotland could agree with that.

They will, if England is Catholic again, which ITTL it will be

 

[FouDuRoy]

Having another legitimate possible heir in the male line might result in Henrique being passed over due to being a cardinal, though.

I don't know if this was possible. I guess it does not make a huge difference anyway.

Anyway, the POD was 1541 - by then, all of João III's children save for João Manuel and Maria Manuela were dead, although there is the possibility of Catherine having another child or João Manuel living longer.

João III's line can survive either through João Manuel either through Maria Manuela (or even through both of them).

They will, if England is Catholic again, which ITTL it will be

England was Catholic in OTL in the time of Edward I.
The Scottish spent centuries to fight the English in order to preserve their independance. Why would they suddenly give up and offer their land to their archenemies?
Most likely, the Scottish would defend their independance, stay Catholic and keep their traditional alliance with the French (who were Catholic too).
I see no reason that could lead them to do otherwise.

 

[isabella]

I definitely agree.
At this time, a marriage with Charles makes much more sense than with Philip, for various reasons:
-not implying Spain/England union, making it more acceptable to the English,
-no need to break Philip's engagement to Maria-Manuela,
-likely prefered by Mary herself.
Charles did not want to remarry after Isabella's death but he may reluctantly agree because you know... politics.

He would agree as he can not throw away England. Plus in this way he would have the chance to get an heir for the Netherlands

Henrique came before Duarte in the succession line. But, yes, if Duarte survives and/or has a son, he or his son would be Henrique's undisputable heir (assuming João III's line still comes to an end ITTL, which is not even sure).

Maria Manuela could undoubtedly have more luck than she had in OTL

There is no way anyone in Scotland could agree with that.

Well in OTL Mary was initially engaged to Edward so Scotland can agree to that wedding in the right situation (aka without Henry VIII asking far too much). Here the Rough Wooing would never happen and if Charles and Mary are reasonable… Still James V could NOT die as OTL as the POD is before his death or Mary could be born as boy

Maybe Mary Stuart would marry the second son but definitely not the eldest one. A French prince is far more likely for her anyway.
The eldest son of Charles V and Mary Tudor would likely marry a daughter of Philip (either by Maria Manuela either by Maria of Viseu). How long this game can work despite inbreeding is an open question.

I heavily doubt who French prince would be seen as a good idea in this scenario

Maybe.
Or maybe Charles, duke of Angoulême and later Orléans, survives ITTL and is the one becoming duke of Milan as part of the Treaty of Crépy.

The treaty is most likely butterflied if Charles has a new wife and new kids and the command of the English forces

 

[ordinarylittleme]

I heavily doubt who French prince would be seen as a good idea in this scenario

Why? It'd still work with the Auld Alliance

 

[ike225]

Does the English branch get the Netherlands? That means Spain won't have the money sink anymore and can secure their colonial empire since they'll have more wealth.

You mean the region that provided 40% of the entire budget and Antwerp through which accounted for 40% of the world trade before the 80years war broke out? That money sink

 

[isabella]

Why? It'd still work with the Auld Alliance

Because here they have the Habsburg right next door and on the other side of the sea… Is NOT anymore simply England, is something much worse, who can destroy Scotland. The Auld Alliance would only brought again damages to Scotland in this situation