How much more people would Siberia & Central Asia have today without WWI, WWII, & Bolshevism?

CaliGuy

Banned
How much more people would Siberia & Central Asia would have today had World War I, World War II, and the Bolshevik Revolution never occurred?

Also, what would the demographics of these regions be today in such a scenario?

Indeed, any thoughts on this?
 

Deleted member 97083

The demographics would probably be more Russian, Belorussian, and Ukrainian as those areas would have extra millions of people who'd migrate to central Asia and Siberia. Though not as much as one would expect, since a non-communist Russia will be less likely to do massive state-supported movements of people.

Are we assuming that the February Revolution still happens?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
The demographics would probably be more Russian, Belorussian, and Ukrainian as those areas would have extra millions of people who'd migrate to central Asia and Siberia. Though not as much as one would expect, since a non-communist Russia will be less likely to do massive state-supported movements of people.
Out of curiosity--does anyone here have any data on just how many ethnic Russians moved to Siberia and Central Asia in the decades before the start of World War I?
 
My understanding is that numbers are "artificially" high now thanks to the forced movement of people under the Soviets. (And maybe the Russian Empire? This I don't know.)

Wouldn't the numbers be "naturally" lower without the pressures of government?
 
Out of curiosity--does anyone here have any data on just how many ethnic Russians moved to Siberia and Central Asia in the decades before the start of World War I?

According to this source, 5.2 million people settled Siberia, the Far East and Central Asia between 1896 and 1913 with a peak from 1906 after the Trans-Siberian Railway was opened.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trans-Siberian_Railway

Considering the huge demographic losses Russia, Ukraine and Belarus suffered during the 20th century, losses whose impacts are still felt today. I wouldn't be surprised if TTL Siberia has up to double its OTL population, with a far more important agricultural component due to free settlers etc instead of state directed migrations. The Far North may be less populated than OTL, but the temperate belt may become an extension of the Ukrainian steppe. Kazakhstan is likely majority Slavic OTL and Kazakhs will be just as assimilated as the Tatars are OTL. Parts of Uzbekistan and the other stans may also be majority Russian/Slavic TTL.
 
In 1916 Central Asia lost its %15 of Turkic population due to Tsarist regime's punitive expeditions in 1916 Turkestan Revolt.
During Kazakh famine of 1919–1922, Kazakhs lost %20 of their population.
During WW2, Central Asian SSR's lost %5-10 of their population.
I'm not even count the 80's and 90's economic problems that caused low birth rates.
So, without these events, I think central asian native population would be higher than slavic population.
 
In 1916 Central Asia lost its %15 of Turkic population due to Tsarist regime's punitive expeditions in 1916 Turkestan Revolt.
During Kazakh famine of 1919–1922, Kazakhs lost %20 of their population.
During WW2, Central Asian SSR's lost %5-10 of their population.
I'm not even count the 80's and 90's economic problems that caused low birth rates.
So, without these events, I think central asian native population would be higher than slavic population.
It's not a given that those events or equivalents of them would be avoided without the Soviets. Famines and rebellions happened under the Tsars too.
 
Say what you can but in many ways Kazakhstan most likely will dramatically less urbanised and country in general will most likely poor agrarian country with secondary resource extraction mostly owned by foreign companies .Most likely would be very corrupt and fractioned between Russophone North and Uzbeks and Kazakh South.
 
It's entirely possible the population would be lower. If European Russia reaches anywhere near Western European levels of economic development, it's cities will draw heavy immigration from the poorer/more agrarian regions of Asian Russia.
 
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