How much military damage could a Chinese force have done to France in Indochina in 1950-51 ?

China invades French Indochina in fall 1950, what happens to French?

  • the French hold

    Votes: 5 21.7%
  • the French retreat or evacuate a la Dunkirk

    Votes: 13 56.5%
  • the French are overrun or captured

    Votes: 5 21.7%

  • Total voters
    23

raharris1973

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What it says on the tin.

The Chinese in October-November 1950 cross over into Tonkin (in collusion with the Viet Minh) and attack the French Union forces with a force the size of the one they used in Korea at the same time in OTL, what happens to the French military in Indochina?

Do they hold?

Do they evacuate Haiphong a la Dunkirk?

Do they get overrun or captured en masse before they can retreat?

If the French forces in Tonkin are taken off the board at this time, what do they have left in the rest of Indochina, and can the Viet Minh finish them off?
 
Operation Vulture happens. Might be enough for Truman to decide to unleash LeMay on China, too, if Mao looks to be that expansionist.
 

Archibald

Banned
Even with U.S help French forces in Indochina were pretty razor-thin (particularly aircrafts, there were no more than a hundred of them). I think China could make a lot of damage. What I'm sure is that there would be no way the French could resist a massive chinese onslaught, Korea-style. The numbers just weren't there.
 
Even with U.S help French forces in Indochina were pretty razor-thin (particularly aircrafts, there were no more than a hundred of them). I think China could make a lot of damage. What I'm sure is that there would be no way the French could resist a massive chinese onslaught, Korea-style. The numbers just weren't there.
It all depends on the initial push.
The forces were so thin because there was very little political support. This war of recolonisation (as the French had been entirely pushed away from Indochina) was seen in parallel with the fall of France in WWII.

Now if China attacks them, that's entirely different, although it might cause troubles with the communists in the government in Paris
 

raharris1973

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Awesome link, a fascinating read, and I think it was also plausibly pessimistic. I recommend it to others. Nice commentary, on regional reactions to. They posit that such a successful and bold play would make Thailand and Burma very accommodative to Communist power/Chinese interests [not so sure I agree] but that it would raise Indian suspicion of and opposition to China. [I'm more inclined to agree with that].

I don't think Thailand or even Burma would necessarily eschew western support under these circumstances, but Burma would be a heck of a lot more worried that if it did not not clean out the armed ChiNat refugees and guerrillas on the borderland, the ChiComs would.
QUOTE="marathag, post: 14114862, member: 68581"]Operation Vulture happens. Might be enough for Truman to decide to unleash LeMay on China, too, if Mao looks to be that expansionist.[/QUOTE]

Well in this case it would not be Operation Vulture, the 1954 contingency plan to lift the siege of Dien Bien Phu, rather it would be a different atomic intervention to lift the siege of Haiphong...if Truman comes to the decision to do that within the six weeks the linked report said it would take to eliminate the French everywhere in Tonkin except for a Haiphong beachhead.

-----------------

A couple interesting things about this. If atomic weapons were employed in Indochina they could not do much more than break threatening troop concentrations around cities like Haiphong and Danang and Saigon. The ChiComs and Viet Minh could largely sustain themselves outside of cities, captured or otherwise, while ink-blotting the entire countryside. If extended to China, China has more to lose in terms of cities and industry, but if it came to it could still be a more resilient target than a Japan.

Such a swift defeat would also bag a lot of French prisoners. Granted, mainly legionnaires and and locally raised troops but still a lot of French officers. That could give some negotiating leverage to the Communist side.

---Another thing is that with speed and mass, the Chinese could do an unannounced intervention, claiming the forces involved are Viet Minh, of course provided with equipment and training by China. The French are unlikely to take Chinese prisoners, and while reports would come in from refugees or fleeing individuals that actual Chinese troops were engaged, it would be hard to produce photographic "proof" on par with what the US used during the Cuban missile crisis. The main limitation that a large-scale but unannounced and denied intervention would have is the charade would be spoiled if the Chinese use their air force, which they could be tempted to use to get the job done more quickly. Such denials would muddy the waters to the extent that nuclear attacks on China itself become more politically tricky.
 
A couple interesting things about this. If atomic weapons were employed in Indochina they could not do much more than break threatening troop concentrations around cities like Haiphong and Danang and Saigon.

I believe besides that, Chinese cities would also be getting buckets of Instant Sunshine, with a for real declaration of War.

Korea could be put off as a Police Action, but a full invasion by Red China into Indochina?
Nope.
 
lucky for the French there is a considerable distance in miles from the Chinese border to the Red River Valley (their principal stronghold in the north) so with any luck (and they did have some deep recon elements pushed out pretty far according to "Street Without Joy") they would have enough warning to abandon their fortifications and run like hell for Haiphong for evacuation by the US Navy (which would certainly happen).

As far as nuking China.. depends on when. Eisenhower might very well have done it, but maybe not. Deploying US troops to southern Vietnam is not outside the realm of possibility either. Certainly airstrikes by the 7th Fleet would have been likely, as would British carrier support as well

But a major offensive into French Indochina at the same time as Korea might just tell Truman or Eisenhower that the Chinese do not plan to stop and consider it a full scale war.
 

raharris1973

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But a major offensive into French Indochina at the same time as Korea might just tell Truman or Eisenhower that the Chinese do not plan to stop and consider it a full scale war.

Does it make a difference to Truman if it happens at the same time the US is already in Korea, but the Chinese are staying out of Korea? Is the time coincidence of both wars, even if China is not directly involved in Korea, enough for Truman to go nukey, nukey full scale war, or would it only be simultaneous Chinese offensives in both Korea and Vietnam?

What if the Chinese move into Indochina between November 49 and June 50, before Korea, and Korea doesn't happen?
 
Does it make a difference to Truman if it happens at the same time the US is already in Korea, but the Chinese are staying out of Korea? Is the time coincidence of both wars, even if China is not directly involved in Korea, enough for Truman to go nukey, nukey full scale war, or would it only be simultaneous Chinese offensives in both Korea and Vietnam?

What if the Chinese move into Indochina between November 49 and June 50, before Korea, and Korea doesn't happen?

I agree, a lot of variables here, although my understanding is that the Reds are still mopping up in China as last as 1950, so earlier seems less likely than later. If in December 1951 or later, the Red Chinese attack in Korea AND French Indochina, Truman would have to assume that the Red Chinese have decided on nothing less than the conquest of Asia (based on how he would likely see it anyway). If the Red Chinese invade French Indochina after stalemate results in the Korean War, again likely perception by the Anglo-Americans that World War 3 has started.

As the North Koreans appear to have been Soviet clients first, and acted with what appears to be permission from Stalin, the Chinese do not control events there. So Korea seems unconnected in this case. From what I remember from "Street Without Joy" (last read 20 years ago so its been a while), the Chinese were providing crap loads of weapons and even some general support units for the Viet Minh as early as 1950 and probably didn't see the need to go to war there as the French were already in deep deep trouble after Lang Som in 1950.
 
China with the Viet Minh? Really?
I think Ho might suddenly seek peace terms with the French if the Chinese invaded.

Remember, China is the 800 gorilla, imperial hegemon of the area, and had tried to conquer and rule Vietnam before.

There's a reason that North Vietnam was primarily allied with the USSR, not China.
 
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