How much longer would the byzantine & sassanid empires have lasted without the arab conquests?

How much longer would the byzantines & sassanids have lasted without the arab conquests? could the byzantines have rebuilt the roman empire? Is it likely the turks & mongols would still take them down?
 

Toraach

Banned
How much longer would the byzantines & sassanids have lasted without the arab conquests? could the byzantines have rebuilt the roman empire? Is it likely the turks & mongols would still take them down?
The "Byzantines" were the Romans, and their Empire was the Roman Empire, the whole eastern half, with possesing in Africa and Italy when the arab conquests happened. Probably without Arabs, and Turks later as a consequence the Eastern Roman Empire could last to this day, even severely crippled, weaked and abused this lasted to 15th century. The only bigger problems for them is, I could see, in the Balkans, which they de facto lost even before the Arabs came, but later under the Macedonian Dynasty they were able to reconquer it and hold for two centuries. For Sassanians, I don't know, probably to the time when some steppe barbarians managed to do "full Chingis Khan" rampage.
 
I'm not sure about the Byzantines, but the Sassanids were deep trouble already when Khalid ibn al Walid kicked in the door. Iraq's large Christian Arab population was getting more and more rebellious as the taxing and conscripting overseen by the Persian military governors became more onerous, and Iraq was a vitally important province for the Sassanids. Political stability was basically nonexistent following the mess that was Khosrow Kavadh II's reign; Khosrow Yazdegerd III barely held palace factions together even in the face of an existential threat. The middling landowners of the provincial bureaucracy that had gained power following Anushirvan the Just's reforms were smelling the blood of the noble classes in the water and starting to defy the will of Ctesiphon.

If you want to keep the Sassanids together, you're gonna have to use a POD earlier than the conquests, because IMO they were well and truly screwed by the time Abu Bakr/Umar showed up and steamrolled them. Maybe a string of stronger successors to Khosrow I Anushirvan that continue his golden age?
 
Byzantine, which was Roman Empire to end, could survive this day. It probably could survive with any POD before fourth crusade.

Sassanids probably wouldn't survive much longer. Dynasties rarely survive several centuries and Persian ones were often pretty short-lived.
 
Byzantine, which was Roman Empire to end, could survive this day. It probably could survive with any POD before fourth crusade.

Sassanids probably wouldn't survive much longer. Dynasties rarely survive several centuries and Persian ones were often pretty short-lived.
what would have happened after a sassanid collapse?
 

aenigma

Banned
Seems to me balkanisation of persia would have left the romans in a pretty good position if no muslim/arab invasion.
 
Seems to me balkanisation of persia would have left the romans in a pretty good position if no muslim/arab invasion.

Surely. There hardly would be any serious challenger without Persia and some large Arab kingdom. Of course it has some internal problems exist but not anything what Byzantine couldn't deal.
 

TruthfulPanda

Gone Fishin'
If no Arab Conquest and Sassanid collapse then - exempting a Civil War (which cannot be ruled due to the despised uncle/niece marriage of the Emperor) - then maybe the Romans contain the Avars, restore Danube frontier and exterminate the Longobards.
Woul there be a push against Spain and Francia?
Would Bavaria and Schwabia become battlegrounds? Would Constantinople fund Saxon pagans to divert Frankish strength?
If Sassanids fall - then the usual. An era of "Five Emperors and Ten Kingdoms" ensues. Then the emergence of Big Dogs, maybe One Big Dog to Rule Them All. Maybe there could be a different configuration? An Assyrian/Babylonian Kingdom in Mesopotamia (Christian?) with the Zoroastrian Persians limited to the Plateau? Armenia (for once) unites and stays united? Come c.710 the 2nd Turkish Khagante attacks west - how do the Sassanids/successor states fare?
 

TruthfulPanda

Gone Fishin'
Fact is that they moved out from the Roman Empire because they did not agree with the Dogma/Doctrine. And were tolerated by the Sassanids because they were different from Roman Catholic Orthodoxy.
If today mumbo-jumbo and mental loop-jumping about the nature of Christ - absolutely incomprehensible to anybody who is sane and not a theologian - is no longer important, than jolly good for everybody!
But that mumbo-jumbo mattered there and then.
 
Seems to me balkanisation of persia would have left the romans in a pretty good position if no muslim/arab invasion.

Hence why there's no way Persia balkanizes. The Iranian plateau almost never remained disunified for long in OTL after this period and as long as there's a threat in the west there will be strong incentives for whatever emerges out of the Sassanians collapse to be militarily strong.
 
The issue with the Arab conquest not happening is that OTL they were essentially happening before the rise of Muhammad/Islam. In the sense that the populations of the various client Arab polities were rising beyond their carrying capacity. Being nomadic and tribal, with a porous long land border equals......
The point for this question is how to make sure that the two big dogs don’t die?
Co-opt the Arabs, invite them in, break them up and spread them about (classic roman tactic) there was already some of that in the border
Regions I think but drawing the overpopulation out in drive and drabs rather than a flood all at once is the key to both their survivals. Though I agree that absent ASB’s swooping Down and dancing the fandango the Persians are blues screwed and royally tattooed
 
The "Byzantines" were the Romans, and their Empire was the Roman Empire, the whole eastern half, with possesing in Africa and Italy when the arab conquests happened. Probably without Arabs, and Turks later as a consequence the Eastern Roman Empire could last to this day, even severely crippled, weaked and abused this lasted to 15th century. The only bigger problems for them is, I could see, in the Balkans, which they de facto lost even before the Arabs came, but later under the Macedonian Dynasty they were able to reconquer it and hold for two centuries. For Sassanians, I don't know, probably to the time when some steppe barbarians managed to do "full Chingis Khan" rampage.

The Byzantines can remain in power but I am interested in seeing how it will face the issues of the Balkans and the rise of other Christan European powers. Egypt is easier than Balkans to keep due to historical low number of internal problems unlike the Balkans with first Germanic invasions then facing the hungrains Russians and Austrians.
 

Toraach

Banned
The Byzantines can remain in power but I am interested in seeing how it will face the issues of the Balkans and the rise of other Christan European powers. Egypt is easier than Balkans to keep due to historical low number of internal problems unlike the Balkans with first Germanic invasions then facing the hungrains Russians and Austrians.
Well, we can just look for an inspiration into the OTL. But without lost of the Eastern Provinces, and without a total turkish/arabian threats the Eastern Roman Empire should be stronger.
 
How much longer would the byzantines & sassanids have lasted without the arab conquests? could the byzantines have rebuilt the roman empire? Is it likely the turks & mongols would still take them down?

I think it is likely that Egypt and Syria would become independent sooner or later even without an Arab conquest. Christological disagreements would make it difficult to keep the empire united. The disagreements might seem ridiculous to modern people, but they were very important to people at that time.
 

ar-pharazon

Banned
Without the Arabs knocking at the door I could see the Byzantines reconsolidating control of Syria and Egypt.

The Monophysites might long to rebel-but without Islamic aid I think the Byzantines could crush any sort of movement. Egypt is just too important otherwise.

With the Sassanids on the verge of collapse as stated earlier this would allow the Byzantines to refocus on the Balkans, Italy, Africa. Maybe do some reconquering in Iberia as well.

Persia will be in civil war with various claimants, factions and revolts-this allows the Romans decades if not maybe a century or so at most to focus on other areas.

Eventually the situation in Persia will stabilize-a new dynasty will emerge.

Or an invasion from the steppes could happen as well-perhaps you might see an non Islamic Turkic ruled Persia.

And the cycle of Roman-Persian conflicts will continue.
 
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