French morale did go through the floor during the Nivelle offensive, however the mutinies only involved a small number of the worst hit divisions and unlike the German Army in late 1918 there were no mass surrenders and troops maintained their defensive positions. They simply refused to continue with suicidal attacks, furthermore the French Army rapidly recognised the specific triggers including lack of leave and rotations and resolved them relatively quickly. The French Army wasn't in great shape but it was certainly in much better condition than the AH or Russian Armies and wasn't going to collapse any time soon and in fact it was already carrying out limited offensives again in the late 1917 and was fully operational again by 1918.
Yes French morale was down. That is what I said. Nothing more and nothing less. But that they did mutiny so that the senseless offensives were called off, should show that they themselves had doubts about their ability to break the German lines.
That the Americans then entered allowed the French leaders to suspend offensives for a time as they had “fresh meat” for the grinder, they just had to wait for it to arrive. And that Imo was a very important fact that held the French in the field. Without them, maybe they too would break…
The Blockade was pretty airtight right from 1914 at least as far as food and raw materials were concerned.
No, as others have said, it was far from “airtight”. It was important, that is without doubt. But it was not all encompassing. And in late 1916 / early 1917 before USW the USA was getting fed up with the unilateral way the British blocked access to European neutral.
Well they did in OTL but I assume you mean 1919 and if you look at the food situation no they couldn't. One of the problems during the Kaiserschlacht was the habit of the Sturmtruppen, the most elite and well cared for elements of the German Army and thus the entire Central Powers to stop and loot British supply depots for such unheard of luxuries as real bread made from 100% wheat and new boots. That tells you how bad the situation was.
Yes and that would be OTL. But to have a chance for a longer war, the USA would have to stay out. Not giving such nice things as unsecured loans and millions of fresh troops to the Entente. Here the Entente would not have been able to totally block Germany of from imports. But to a degree the situation would still be bad. Just not as bad as in OTL.
On the other side of the coin, that what the Entente loses will not be present here. So they may also feel the pinch. Not that bad, but still.
The British stock of dollar assets to pay for US munitions was beginning to run low (though not out) and in the absence of US entry imports would probably have to decline, however even in the absence of the US the Entente still had the production advantage, to use a illustrative example in 1917 Germany produced 144,000 tons of high explosive, Britain alone produced 186,000 tons with the rest of the British Empire and the US on top of that. Now quite a lot of that was then exported by Britain to France, Italy and Russia and the British Army only going about 60% of the British shell production but by 1918 even in the absence of any US production (and there still would be imports from the US to the entente) the Industrial War was being won by the Entente.
The problem is that the British had to beg with the beggars bowl for loans. That situation was beginning in late 1916. A thing when you finance the war effort for everyone on the international market. So yes, the British themselves feared the loss of international goods as they allowed them, on the manpower cheap, to economize their production.
The only card the CP had was the superior starting quality of the German Army that managed to keep fighting for 4 years and achieve some remarkable feats despite being completely outweighed in industrial terms. But by 1918 the British Army had caught up and surpassed the Germans in terms of equipment and when you consider the development of combined arms operations and artillery tactics probably tactically and operationally as well.
Yes the British and French caught up. But they did so for a bloody price. And that was beginning to tell.
The French were bleed so bad, that the soldiers did not attack! That should tell you something. And yes the German Army folded in 1918. But the Americans were there with “unlimited” money and manpower. That is not happening here.
Coincidently, late 1916 and in the beginning of 1917 the tonnage sunk was reaching alarming numbers. Some 400.000 tons per month and more and that was a critical line for the British to have crossed. As they needed approx. 2 million tons of food imported per month. Not to mention the fuel for the RN. And without the USA in and their resources readily available (round 85% of oil came from there), the Entente will also feel the pinch of “blockade”.
Well they did in OTL but I assume you mean 1919
So no, I did really mean 1918. Something had to give on either side. And I personally rate the chances of Germany and the CP rather better then OTL to bring the Entente to the table.