How much larger would the US's Chinese population be in 2017 with a delayed Chinese Exclusion Act?

CaliGuy

Banned
Had the passage of the Chinese Exclusion Act been delayed by a couple of decades or so (say, by having President Garfield survive his assassination, get an epiphany afterwards, have enough nerve to veto all versions of the Chinese Exclusion Act afterwards, and then narrowly hold New York and thus win re-election in 1884 after the Democrats run against him on an anti-Chinese platform--something which results in a setback of a couple of decades for the pro-Chinese exclusion movement), how much larger would the U.S.'s Chinese population be today (in 2017)?

Any thoughts on this?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
For the record, I posted this here since a Chinese Exclusion Act which is delayed by a couple of decades will be passed after 1900.
 
Larger, but not incredibly larger. Consider that Chinese immigrants were overwhelmingly male and the number of families over here was very low. In addition, many went back to China once they'd made enough money. Chinese were an outsized portion of the workforce, but very small % of the US population. As white settlers filled the Western United States, Chinese would become a smaller and smaller portion of the workforce and population. You would also likely see much lower populations of Japanese and Filipino immigrants, as these waves were largely driven by employers searching for new sources of labor after Chinese Exclusion.

Likely, like OTL, you would see recent Chinese immigrants vastly outnumbering those who can trace their ancestry to 19th and early 20th century immigrants if national quotas are ever lifted.

One major difference would be Hawaii, assuming it's still annexed ITTL. Chinese, instead of Japanese, would be the dominant ethnic group on the islands and have a much bigger impact on the culture and language of Hawaii.

A better PoD for preventing the Chinese Exclusion Act imo would be figuring out how to reduce inter-white labor tensions. Anti-Chinese sentiment often had little to do with the amount of Chinese living in any given area. The overwhelming majority of congressmen who voted for the Act represented areas with no Chinese population. The racism and xenophobia was exacerbated by the economic anxiety and displacement that occurred in the United States during the earliest stages of industrialization. A society made of largely yeoman farmers, who could care less about competition in the labor market, was being replaced by an emerging class of white workers. But this early industrialization was driven almost entirely by the interests of capital and bosses as represented by the Republican party. Have the Democrats, or some labor party emerge victorious earlier in the post-Civil War era and improve the lot of white workers or at least direct their animosity elsewhere.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Larger, but not incredibly larger. Consider that Chinese immigrants were overwhelmingly male and the number of families over here was very low. In addition, many went back to China once they'd made enough money. Chinese were an outsized portion of the workforce, but very small % of the US population. As white settlers filled the Western United States, Chinese would become a smaller and smaller portion of the workforce and population. You would also likely see much lower populations of Japanese and Filipino immigrants, as these waves were largely driven by employers searching for new sources of labor after Chinese Exclusion.

Likely, like OTL, you would see recent Chinese immigrants vastly outnumbering those who can trace their ancestry to 19th and early 20th century immigrants if national quotas are ever lifted.

One major difference would be Hawaii, assuming it's still annexed ITTL. Chinese, instead of Japanese, would be the dominant ethnic group on the islands and have a much bigger impact on the culture and language of Hawaii.

A better PoD for preventing the Chinese Exclusion Act imo would be figuring out how to reduce inter-white labor tensions. Anti-Chinese sentiment often had little to do with the amount of Chinese living in any given area. The overwhelming majority of congressmen who voted for the Act represented areas with no Chinese population. The racism and xenophobia was exacerbated by the economic anxiety and displacement that occurred in the United States during the earliest stages of industrialization. A society made of largely yeoman farmers, who could care less about competition in the labor market, was being replaced by an emerging class of white workers. But this early industrialization was driven almost entirely by the interests of capital and bosses as represented by the Republican party. Have the Democrats, or some labor party emerge victorious earlier in the post-Civil War era and improve the lot of white workers or at least direct their animosity elsewhere.
Very, very interesting! :) Indeed, excellent post! :D

However, I've got a question--couldn't the Democrats stoke hatred towards Chinese in an attempt to get more people to vote for them? After all, Democrats back then already began engaging in things such as violence, harassment, et cetera of Black voters; thus, why not extend this hatred to the Chinese in an attempt to get more votes?
 
Very, very interesting! :) Indeed, excellent post! :D

However, I've got a question--couldn't the Democrats stoke hatred towards Chinese in an attempt to get more people to vote for them? After all, Democrats back then already began engaging in things such as violence, harassment, et cetera of Black voters; thus, why not extend this hatred to the Chinese in an attempt to get more votes?

Yes. I mean every American party did exactly this, even Socialists. But I think it would be a less salient issue for whites if labor issues were solved earlier.

Also, I've got a question--when exactly did most Japanese immigration to Hawaii occur?

About the same time as Japanese immigration to the mainland --- from the 1890s to the passage of the Immigration Act of 1924. Before that the sugar cane plantation workforce in Hawaii was plurality Chinese.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Yes. I mean every American party did exactly this, even Socialists. But I think it would be a less salient issue for whites if labor issues were solved earlier.

OK; understood.

About the same time as Japanese immigration to the mainland --- from the 1890s to the passage of the Immigration Act of 1924. Before that the sugar cane plantation workforce in Hawaii was plurality Chinese.

Thanks for this information! :)
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Honestly, though, I am still concerned that Democrats in this TL would view support for Chinese immigration to the U.S. as being inconsistent with their hostility to Black suffrage (in practice); after all, if Chinese are entitled to come to the U.S. to live better lives, why exactly shouldn't Black people have the opportunity to vote just like the U.S. Constitution itself requires?
 
Top