How much German settlement in Mitteleuropa would there be after a German WWI victory?

The SPD could put this as a peripheral item on their agenda and pass it after they passed their important stuff, though.
or pass it to distract the right for more radical agenda and they wish more right winger moved so they keep more left minded voters, again depends...why SPD have to win? what if Right wing party sweep the reichstag thanks to the victory?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
or pass it to distract the right for more radical agenda and they wish more right winger moved so they keep more left minded voters, again depends...why SPD have to win? what if Right wing party sweep the reichstag thanks to the victory?
Weren't there several prominent right-wing parties in Germany during this time, though?
 
Weren't there several prominent right-wing parties in Germany during this time, though?
Severals, i forgot the names but unlike spd or zentrum there was not a 'catch all' right wing, were several from 'liberal'(in the economical sense) to others called conservative or populist were right wing, for that what if those parties sweep both reichstag and prussian landstag? butterflies can ensure that too.
 
That I honestly don't know.

This is the big thing in these ideas, its great to say this and that, but if people don't want it (and Germany was rapidly transiting from the country to the City at the time) or it all falls over then it's all a bit pointless.

You want to keep Falkenhayn in charge for a longer time period?

Also, when I think of a CP victory, I primarily think of Kaiser Bill having enough backbone to overrule the military on resuming USW in early 1917.

I don't believe in any WW1 victory panacea, no one decision will change the war. I think Falkenhayen would have been better than H&L, but after things like winning the Race to the Sea and reinforcing the MarineKorps Flandern.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
This is the big thing in these ideas, its great to say this and that, but if people don't want it (and Germany was rapidly transiting from the country to the City at the time) or it all falls over then it's all a bit pointless.

Yes, but you're forgetting about the potential for urban settlement in Mitteleuropa. Indeed, there are a lot of cities in Mitteleuropa to which ethnic Germans can move to.

I don't believe in any WW1 victory panacea, no one decision will change the war. I think Falkenhayen would have been better than H&L, but after things like winning the Race to the Sea and reinforcing the MarineKorps Flandern.

So, you're thinking way back to 1914 here?
 
So, you're thinking way back to 1914 here?

Maybe not all the way back to 1914, but there was no battle that decided the war. The Marne allowed the Allies to hold the Germans but it took 4 more years to wear them down, so the same will apply in reverse. Maybe sending destroyers to Flanders in May 1915 would be one factor and a better Verdun and something else in 1917 would do the trick, but there needs to be a few changers over a couple of years.

Yes, but you're forgetting about the potential for urban settlement in Mitteleuropa. Indeed, there are a lot of cities in Mitteleuropa to which ethnic Germans can move to.

I hadn't forgotten it, I don't believe it would happen. Large numbers of poor people move off the land into cities to do unskilled work in factories, this is easier for Germans to do in Germany than to go to Poland or Courland with a different language, no family connections etc.
 
Maybe not all the way back to 1914, but there was no battle that decided the war. The Marne allowed the Allies to hold the Germans but it took 4 more years to wear them down, so the same will apply in reverse. Maybe sending destroyers to Flanders in May 1915 would be one factor and a better Verdun and something else in 1917 would do the trick, but there needs to be a few changers over a couple of years.
So, you're thinking way back to 1914 here?
Guys decide because an earlier or later POD change the whole scenario itself.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Maybe not all the way back to 1914, but there was no battle that decided the war. The Marne allowed the Allies to hold the Germans but it took 4 more years to wear them down, so the same will apply in reverse. Maybe sending destroyers to Flanders in May 1915 would be one factor and a better Verdun and something else in 1917 would do the trick, but there needs to be a few changers over a couple of years.

Why not simply avoid the USW blunder and thus have Germany keep its gains in the East, though?

I hadn't forgotten it, I don't believe it would happen. Large numbers of poor people move off the land into cities to do unskilled work in factories, this is easier for Germans to do in Germany than to go to Poland or Courland with a different language, no family connections etc.

Many ethnic Russians did move to Central Asian cities, though.
 
Why not simply avoid the USW blunder and thus have Germany keep its gains in the East, though?

Many ethnic Russians did move to Central Asian cities, though.

Why would that happen? Despite the February revolution the Russians were still in the war as were the French and British, so the war is going to continue until one drops out. Even when the Russians drop out the French will need a final flogging before they give in.

Central Asia had been under Russian rule from the 1600s, Russians moving to Russian territory isn't strange. Germans moving to foreign countries en masse would be akin to a mass migration rather than an internal rebalancing.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Yes, this is probably correct.


The Baltic German nobility (Baltic Barons) appear to have agreed to donate a third of their lands for ethnic German settlement, though:

https://books.google.com/books?id=y37zY9UpOD8C&pg=PA208&dq=baltic+barons+german+settlement+1918&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjt5r6ChZTVAhUE3GMKHZ_mAN4Q6AEIJDAA#v=onepage&q=baltic barons german settlement 1918&f=false

Also, I don't see why an SPD-led German government can't decide to accept ideas such as that of Ludendorff where he wanted to settle ethnic Germans in Crimea:

https://books.google.com/books?id=VTDtCwAAQBAJ&pg=PT68&dq=ludendorff+settlement+crimea&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjhsdabhZTVAhVI0WMKHSHXANsQ6AEIJDAA#v=onepage&q=ludendorff settlement crimea&f=false

Indeed, giving free or cheap land in Mitteleuropa to ethnic Germans doesn't have to be an exclusively right-wing idea.

Been a while since I read up on this, but wasn't this land simply the Baltic states seizing the lands of the nobles loyal to Russia? Plus at least in Poland, the Russians encourage the local Poles to leave in front of the advancing Germans by doing thins such as burning 2 million building in the Congress of Poland. I think we are simply looking at empty land in post war CP win. The Slavs that fled will not be let back in, and the locals are simply trying to attract someone to settle on them.

IMO, the most likely outcome is mechanization with tractors. It is about the correct time period. It will raise incomes and prevent the need for additional German settlers. Most urban Germans will not want to go back to farming, so to the extent we see Germans move east, it will be farmers displaced in Germany proper by automation.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Why would that happen? Despite the February revolution the Russians were still in the war as were the French and British, so the war is going to continue until one drops out. Even when the Russians drop out the French will need a final flogging before they give in.

So, you're saying that even with the Russians being out of the war, France and Britain wouldn't even agree to a status quo ante bellum (or a status quo ante bellum + a plebiscite in Alsace-Lorraine) peace in the West (with Germany keeping its gains in the East, of course)?

Central Asia had been under Russian rule from the 1600s, Russians moving to Russian territory isn't strange. Germans moving to foreign countries en masse would be akin to a mass migration rather than an internal rebalancing.

Actually, Central Asia only became Russian in the 1800s:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/58/Growth_of_Russia_1613-1914.png

Growth_of_Russia_1613-1914.png


Also, Mitteleuropa would have the potential to gradually evolve into a E.U.-style federal state.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Been a while since I read up on this, but wasn't this land simply the Baltic states seizing the lands of the nobles loyal to Russia?

My impression was that the Baltic Barons were voluntarily willing to give up a third of their lands in order to strengthen the ethnic German presence in Latvia and Estonia and thus to combat Latvian and Estonian nationalism.

Plus at least in Poland, the Russians encourage the local Poles to leave in front of the advancing Germans by doing thins such as burning 2 million building in the Congress of Poland. I think we are simply looking at empty land in post war CP win.

In some areas, Yes, certainly. Indeed, I think that Courland was mostly depopulated once it was captured by Germany in 1915.

The Slavs that fled will not be let back in, and the locals are simply trying to attract someone to settle on them.

Agreed.

IMO, the most likely outcome is mechanization with tractors. It is about the correct time period. It will raise incomes and prevent the need for additional German settlers. Most urban Germans will not want to go back to farming, so to the extent we see Germans move east, it will be farmers displaced in Germany proper by automation.

Agreed.

However, what about ethnic German migration (not just from Germany, but also from Austria and Hungary) to the cities and suburbs of Mitteleuropa?
 
So, you're saying that even with the Russians being out of the war, France and Britain wouldn't even agree to a status quo ante bellum (or a status quo ante bellum + a plebiscite in Alsace-Lorraine) peace in the West (with Germany keeping its gains in the East, of course)?

With Russia out of the war but no USA in the war Germany wouldn't offer that or agree to it if it was offered. Why would they, they'd beaten Russia and smashed Italy and were redeploying troops to the west to deliver what we've seen was a stunning offensive in the west? But the OTL course of the war drove the decision for USW, changes need to be made upstream to remove its powerful logic.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
However, what about ethnic German migration (not just from Germany, but also from Austria and Hungary) to the cities and suburbs of Mitteleuropa?

Generally speaking, weren't the Germans more urban than average for the A-H empire? If so, we will see more Slavic people than Germanic people move to the newly opened land.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
With Russia out of the war but no USA in the war Germany wouldn't offer that or agree to it if it was offered. Why would they, they'd beaten Russia and smashed Italy and were redeploying troops to the west to deliver what we've seen was a stunning offensive in the west? But the OTL course of the war drove the decision for USW, changes need to be made upstream to remove its powerful logic.
Basically, I am assuming that a more rational German Kaiser Wilhelm II becomes uncertain that the war in the West can be won even with Russia out of the war and thus decides to try making peace (while having Germany keep its gains in the East, of course) before the German home front implodes due to starvation.

Generally speaking, weren't the Germans more urban than average for the A-H empire? If so, we will see more Slavic people than Germanic people move to the newly opened land.
Perhaps. Indeed, I have unfortunately never seen detailed urbanization data for Austria-Hungary. :(
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Basically, I am assuming that a more rational German Kaiser Wilhelm II becomes uncertain that the war in the West can be won even with Russia out of the war and thus decides to try making peace (while having Germany keep its gains in the East, of course) before the German home front implodes due to starvation.


Perhaps. Indeed, I have unfortunately never seen detailed urbanization data for Austria-Hungary. :(


The best that comes to mind is the more detailed maps. Take a map where the list the dominant language. Then look at which areas are farming areas. The big two are Polish Galicia which Germans are maybe the third most common ethnic group and the central Hungarian plain which is either Hungarian or Slavic dominated. The only major group of Germanic farmers that come to mind are the ones that were in what now is Romania. It is a bit of a simplification, but Germans are of the cities, Slavs are of the country side. At least in the 1850 to 1935 era. AFAIK.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
The best that comes to mind is the more detailed maps. Take a map where the list the dominant language. Then look at which areas are farming areas. The big two are Polish Galicia which Germans are maybe the third most common ethnic group and the central Hungarian plain which is either Hungarian or Slavic dominated. The only major group of Germanic farmers that come to mind are the ones that were in what now is Romania. It is a bit of a simplification, but Germans are of the cities, Slavs are of the country side. At least in the 1850 to 1935 era. AFAIK.
Yeah, you're probably correct in regards to this.

Also, off-topic, but as a side note, I previously thought that you are a woman. Indeed, I just wanted to point this out.
 
How would Germany attract ethnic Germans to the region when the trend since the 1850s had been with Germans moving westward? With the proportion of Germans in the Eastern Provinces declining with every census, the general trend was for ethnic Germans and Jews to migrate to cities west of the Oder-Neisse Line. Poles from the region also migrated westward to the Rhineland and Westphalia, with some 400,000 living in cities like Gelsenkirchen, Bochum, Dortmund etc. where many were coal miners. Ethnic Poles also moved to Berlin and Potsdam with their numbers in the city rising from 27,339 in 1890 to 81,369 by 1910. Meanwhile the city of Posen's ethnic German population declined from 47% in 1867 to 35% in 1910, while the Poles increased from 38% to 57%. The economic opportunities afforded in Germany led to a very lower overall emigration rate of Poles from the Reich overseas. The same trend of urbanisation held true for Austria-Hungary as German speakers declined from 40% of the population to 7% by 1910. In Vienna, the number of Czechs in the city increased to 20% of the population.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Yeah, you're probably correct in regards to this.

Also, off-topic, but as a side note, I previously thought that you are a woman. Indeed, I just wanted to point this out.

I can see that. Since I picked my online name after a D&D character that was named after a woman.
 
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