How much German settlement in Mitteleuropa would there be after a German WWI victory?

CaliGuy

Banned
How much ethnic German settlement in Mitteleuropa would there be after a German WWI victory?

Also, which parts of Mitteleuropa are likely to have the most and least ethnic German settlement in this TL?

In addition to this, if Mitteleuropa survives for a century (as in, until the present-day), how do its demographics look like right now?

Any thoughts on all of this?
 
Not that much, rather zero. People go where the jobs are & this is the Rhineland not a hypothetical Baltic duchy. Even before the war Germany hired foreign workers. Certainly there will be a few who would settle in Germanys sphere, but you hardly get enough people for a polish border strip or Gotenland.
 

Deleted member 97083

German settlement is hard to determine. However, one interesting thing that applies to this scenario is that the vast bulk of the spread of literacy in Eastern Europe happened after the creation of the Soviet Union. According to Wikipedia, in 1917, within the remaining Tsarist territories, an estimated 37.9% of the male population above seven years old was literate and only 12.5% of the female population was literate. By 1939, however, male literacy was at 90.8% and female literacy had increased to 72.5%. By the 1950s, with a stable education system and an entire generation that had at least completed some form of lower level education, the Soviet Union had reached a literacy rate of 100%.

Would all those people who became literate in that period, be reading and writing in German? Or would they learn literacy for Ukrainian, Belorussian, Latvian, Lithuanian, Estonian, Yiddish?

Not that much, rather zero. People go where the jobs are & this is the Rhineland not a hypothetical Baltic duchy. Even before the war Germany hired foreign workers. Certainly there will be a few who would settle in Germanys sphere, but you hardly get enough people for a polish border strip or Gotenland.
Well, Germany would have higher purchasing power, and land in Belarus for example would be cheaper than land in Germany.

If a great industrial growth occurs in Mitteleuropa, like in the Soviet Union, then that would lead to a large demand for skilled and unskilled labor. It depends on policies, of course. Industrialization may be delayed due to the agrarian motivations for acquiring puppet states from Russia.
 
Not much depend a lot of factors but i think not much different how much russians were in East Europe...not much besides businessman/managers and engineer etc, as people say the big economy is in germany proper, if there or not a Soviet Union the volga germans will want to live in the United Baltic Duchy but the rest germany would rather have to recive imigration that send people.

Would all those people who became literate in that period, be reading and writing in German? Or would they learn literacy for Ukrainian, Belorussian, Latvian, Lithuanian, Estonian, Yiddish?
Both, their national languange plus german for business and science.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
German settlement is hard to determine. However, one interesting thing that applies to this scenario is that the vast bulk of the spread of literacy in Eastern Europe happened after the creation of the Soviet Union. According to Wikipedia, in 1917, within the remaining Tsarist territories, an estimated 37.9% of the male population above seven years old was literate and only 12.5% of the female population was literate. By 1939, however, male literacy was at 90.8% and female literacy had increased to 72.5%. By the 1950s, with a stable education system and an entire generation that had at least completed some form of lower level education, the Soviet Union had reached a literacy rate of 100%.

Your estimate for 1914 might be too low, though; indeed, according to this, in 1914, 41% of the Russian population was literate:

https://books.google.com/books?id=R...A#v=onepage&q=timasheff literacy 1914&f=false

Would all those people who became literate in that period, be reading and writing in German? Or would they learn literacy for Ukrainian, Belorussian, Latvian, Lithuanian, Estonian, Yiddish?

They would presumably become literate in their native language; however, some--if not many--of them might learn German as a second language.

Well, Germany would have higher purchasing power, and land in Belarus for example would be cheaper than land in Germany.

Yes; correct!

If a great industrial growth occurs in Mitteleuropa, like in the Soviet Union, then that would lead to a large demand for skilled and unskilled labor. It depends on policies, of course. Industrialization may be delayed due to the agrarian motivations for acquiring puppet states from Russia.

What if industrialization isn't delayed, though?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Not much depend a lot of factors but i think not much different how much russians were in East Europe...not much besides businessman/managers and engineer etc, as people say the big economy is in germany proper, if there or not a Soviet Union the volga germans will want to live in the United Baltic Duchy but the rest germany would rather have to recive imigration that send people.

For what it's worth, the Russian percentage of the population in Central Asia (which I think is the best equivalent to this) was in the double-digits for decades.

Both, their national languange plus german for business and science.

Agreed.
 

Deleted member 97083

Poland, the Baltic States, St. Petersburg, Moscow, and Finland were highly literate, placing the average percentage of the whole empire above the average rural literacy. Belarus and Ukraine were a lot lower.
 
There would be some, but it would not be especially significant, as example in our modern times you see Dutch farmers buy land in Denmark, because it's cheaper and both Dutch and Danish farmers buys land in Poland and Ukraine for the same reason, we will likely see something similar here, with German and Dutch farmers buying up land in Poland, Ukraine and the Baltics, as large estates owned by Russian nobles and the Tsar are either sold off or nationalized (and sold). This serve severl purpose for the new states to get rid of Russian influence, getting money from the sale and getting the more skilled western farmers to bring new know how to the country. As for the number of these migrants, we're likely talking a few hundred thousands at most.
 
Why would there be any 'unusual' German settlement in MittelEuropa, aside from people who take up job opportunities of their own accord? ME was to be a Customs Union mainly to keep foreign policy influence/control over its members, and not a particularly great arrangement from an economic standpoint. One key German War aim through out WW1 was for Western Power recognition of ME without any punitive trade barriers occurring as a result, which is why Belgium was in an out of ME proposals depending on the war situation at the time, because German politicians and Industrial leaders knew ME wasn't a substitute for access to global markets for the German economy.

I wasn't a Nazi Lebensraum genocide/resettlement project, even the Polish Border strip had 2 or 3 different proposals varying between large with population expulsion to tiny to get a couple of railway towns out of artillery range. But I'm not aware of any ideas seriously proposed by people in positions to do something about it for large scale German settlement of ME.
 
I wasn't a Nazi Lebensraum genocide/resettlement project, even the Polish Border strip had 2 or 3 different proposals varying between large with population expulsion to tiny to get a couple of railway towns out of artillery range. But I'm not aware of any ideas seriously proposed by people in positions to do something about it for large scale German settlement of ME.
This, people forgot that detail in bold that was just zollverein in steroids to keep russian and france out
 
This, people forgot that detail in bold that was just zollverein in steroids to keep russian and france out

Yes, the key point is that Hindy and Ludy won't be running Germany after the war ends, the politicians will. Indeed the Kaiser had already pledged to reform the Prussian 3 class voting system, so the 1918 Prussian Parliament will most likely look like the 1912 Reichstag with some differences due to the war. Given that the Prussian PM is also the Imperial Chancellor and Prussian Ministers hold key State Secretarial posts in the Imperial Government we're likely to see the SDP setting up the ME arrangements.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Yes, the key point is that Hindy and Ludy won't be running Germany after the war ends, the politicians will. Indeed the Kaiser had already pledged to reform the Prussian 3 class voting system, so the 1918 Prussian Parliament will most likely look like the 1912 Reichstag with some differences due to the war. Given that the Prussian PM is also the Imperial Chancellor and Prussian Ministers hold key State Secretarial posts in the Imperial Government we're likely to see the SDP setting up the ME arrangements.
Yes, this is probably correct.

Why would there be any 'unusual' German settlement in MittelEuropa, aside from people who take up job opportunities of their own accord? ME was to be a Customs Union mainly to keep foreign policy influence/control over its members, and not a particularly great arrangement from an economic standpoint. One key German War aim through out WW1 was for Western Power recognition of ME without any punitive trade barriers occurring as a result, which is why Belgium was in an out of ME proposals depending on the war situation at the time, because German politicians and Industrial leaders knew ME wasn't a substitute for access to global markets for the German economy.

I wasn't a Nazi Lebensraum genocide/resettlement project, even the Polish Border strip had 2 or 3 different proposals varying between large with population expulsion to tiny to get a couple of railway towns out of artillery range. But I'm not aware of any ideas seriously proposed by people in positions to do something about it for large scale German settlement of ME.
The Baltic German nobility (Baltic Barons) appear to have agreed to donate a third of their lands for ethnic German settlement, though:

https://books.google.com/books?id=y...=baltic barons german settlement 1918&f=false

Also, I don't see why an SPD-led German government can't decide to accept ideas such as that of Ludendorff where he wanted to settle ethnic Germans in Crimea:

https://books.google.com/books?id=V...nepage&q=ludendorff settlement crimea&f=false

Indeed, giving free or cheap land in Mitteleuropa to ethnic Germans doesn't have to be an exclusively right-wing idea.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
There would be some, but it would not be especially significant, as example in our modern times you see Dutch farmers buy land in Denmark, because it's cheaper and both Dutch and Danish farmers buys land in Poland and Ukraine for the same reason, we will likely see something similar here, with German and Dutch farmers buying up land in Poland, Ukraine and the Baltics, as large estates owned by Russian nobles and the Tsar are either sold off or nationalized (and sold). This serve severl purpose for the new states to get rid of Russian influence, getting money from the sale and getting the more skilled western farmers to bring new know how to the country. As for the number of these migrants, we're likely talking a few hundred thousands at most.
To be fair, though, even several hundred thousand German settlers could add economic stimulus and vitality to the various Mitteleuropa countries as well as to strengthen the existing ethnic German communities there.

In addition to this, what about urban settlement? Indeed, how many ethnic Germans would be willing to move to cities and suburbs of Mitteleuropa? Also, what about after the standards of living in Mitteleuropa begin approaching the level of standards of living in Germany?
 
In addition to this, what about urban settlement? Indeed, how many ethnic Germans would be willing to move to cities and suburbs of Mitteleuropa? Also, what about after the standards of living in Mitteleuropa begin approaching the level of standards of living in Germany?
Those would be Engineer, scienticist and other white or high level blue collar worker would move.

The Baltic German nobility (Baltic Barons) appear to have agreed to donate a third of their lands for ethnic German settlement, though:

https://books.google.com/books?id=y...=baltic barons german settlement 1918&f=false

Also, I don't see why an SPD-led German government can't decide to accept ideas such as that of Ludendorff where he wanted to settle ethnic Germans in Crimea:

https://books.google.com/books?id=V...nepage&q=ludendorff settlement crimea&f=false

Indeed, giving free or cheap land in Mitteleuropa to ethnic Germans doesn't have to be an exclusively right-wing idea.
So the SPD-Zentrum would suport it for appease the right and some sector both center and left? interesting.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Those would be Engineer, scienticist and other white or high level blue collar worker would move.

Like in Russian/Soviet Central Asia?

So the SPD-Zentrum would suport it for appease the right and some sector both center and left? interesting.

Yeah, I mean, the Left and Center could certainly support this in order to try getting more votes for themselves.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Don't know about it but i thing would be more like how Soviet send their 'mens' among Eastern Europe. Can elaborate that point? would give me ideas.
I'm honestly unsure how many scientists and whatnot the Soviet Union sent to Eastern Europe, though.
 
How much ethnic German settlement in Mitteleuropa would there be after a German WWI victory?
Any thoughts on all of this?

Don't know. How many can you resettle before Germany itself runs out of Germans?

From what I gather, it was more about giving the ethnic German or at least Germanic minorities in the different regions a claim for effectively taking over their greater neighborhood. Eventually there would be a cultural and personal mixing between the Germany-Germans and ethnic ukraine-Germans, Volga-Germans, Transylvania-Germans and possibly Dutch, Danes and Flemings possibly with a lot of intermarrying, but the first contingent would still be the German locals.
 
The Baltic German nobility (Baltic Barons) appear to have agreed to donate a third of their lands for ethnic German settlement, though:

https://books.google.com/books?id=y...=baltic barons german settlement 1918&f=false

Also, I don't see why an SPD-led German government can't decide to accept ideas such as that of Ludendorff where he wanted to settle ethnic Germans in Crimea:

https://books.google.com/books?id=V...nepage&q=ludendorff settlement crimea&f=false

Indeed, giving free or cheap land in Mitteleuropa to ethnic Germans doesn't have to be an exclusively right-wing idea.

That book says lists were started in Ober Ost for settlers in these lands, what was the take-up like? Would they be soldier-settlements which tend to fare poorly and get abandoned in about a decade?

We seem to be assuming that Hindy and Ludy manage to take power and achieve victory for the CP; I'd suggest that a CP victory would have to be generated without them thus his odd musings mean nothing in the CP victory ATL. SPD of TTL could decide to do what Ludy mused IOTL, but it would be out of character for them, particularly since they would have just gained power for the first time and would want to make the most of this. I imagine the SPD Chancellor would be busy ingraining core SPD things into the German political landscape and not bother with bizarre far-right dreams of the man who IOTL took unfair advantage of the 1851 Prussian Siege Law but ITTL would be another general in the herd.

Cheap land doesn't have to be a right wing idea, but it was and as I've said above the SPD would have bigger fish to fry to gain/retain the support of its voter base.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
That book says lists were started in Ober Ost for settlers in these lands, what was the take-up like? Would they be soldier-settlements which tend to fare poorly and get abandoned in about a decade?

That I honestly don't know.

We seem to be assuming that Hindy and Ludy manage to take power and achieve victory for the CP; I'd suggest that a CP victory would have to be generated without them thus his odd musings mean nothing in the CP victory ATL.

You want to keep Falkenhayn in charge for a longer time period?

Also, when I think of a CP victory, I primarily think of Kaiser Bill having enough backbone to overrule the military on resuming USW in early 1917.

SPD of TTL could decide to do what Ludy mused IOTL, but it would be out of character for them, particularly since they would have just gained power for the first time and would want to make the most of this. I imagine the SPD Chancellor would be busy ingraining core SPD things into the German political landscape and not bother with bizarre far-right dreams of the man who IOTL took unfair advantage of the 1851 Prussian Siege Law but ITTL would be another general in the herd.

Cheap land doesn't have to be a right wing idea, but it was and as I've said above the SPD would have bigger fish to fry to gain/retain the support of its voter base.

The SPD could put this as a peripheral item on their agenda and pass it after they passed their important stuff, though.
 
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