How much does it matter?

OK, people always talk about butterflies and all that, so I had a question come to be earlier today. I was playing the Renaissance Total War mod for Medieval II Total War as the Timurids, and I was throughly kicking the crap out of the Ottomans. So, if the Timurids were able to conquer the Ottomans and maybe even North Africa, how much of a difference would it have made. Obviously it would have big impacts on Anatolia, the Balkans, and North Africa (new culture superimposed on Greeks, Turks, Arabs, Jews, etc, making things even more complicated), but how much difference would it have made to the rest of Europe to be fearing the Mongol armies instead of the Turkish ones.
 
OK, people always talk about butterflies and all that, so I had a question come to be earlier today. I was playing the Renaissance Total War mod for Medieval II Total War as the Timurids, and I was throughly kicking the crap out of the Ottomans. So, if the Timurids were able to conquer the Ottomans and maybe even North Africa, how much of a difference would it have made. Obviously it would have big impacts on Anatolia, the Balkans, and North Africa (new culture superimposed on Greeks, Turks, Arabs, Jews, etc, making things even more complicated), but how much difference would it have made to the rest of Europe to be fearing the Mongol armies instead of the Turkish ones.
Umm,...lots.
 
Thanks for the insightful comment.

No need to be sarcastic. But Patton is right, the effects would be immense. For one, Timur never had any designs on North Africa, so it would require a POD far before his conquests began for that to happen.

But if the Ottomans destroyed, pretty much no history from that point forward would resemble OTL's.
 
Thanks for the education George. I'm not a complete idiot, really, and I do read enough to know about butterflies. I am wondering how much of a difference this would make to the rest of european history. That's all. No need to act superior.
 
But if the Ottomans destroyed, pretty much no history from that point forward would resemble OTL's.
Right. Bits and pieces might seem familiar (a Chuchill here, an American Republic there, etc.) but the vast majority would be totally different. Although, if events are based on probability, it is EXTREMELY unlikely, but possible, that large portions of history would look the same. The odds are, however, stacked against it.
Thanks for the education George. I'm not a complete idiot, really, and I do read enough to know about butterflies. I am wondering how much of a difference this would make to the rest of european history. That's all. No need to act superior.
I'm sorry if my attitude seemed superior and condescending. I was just trying to help.
 
Cool. That's what I was looking for. How similar it would look to OTL. Thanks for real this time.

It depends on how much of the butterfly effect you buy into. You could take a basileus-like belief (see here: http://althistory.wikia.com/wiki/Basileus'_Interference_Timeline) in which some historical figures and events appear over a millenium after the initial divergence (although the major divergences happen later). When done correctly, it can still be a well-done timeline.

Or you could take Max Sinister's approach (in his Chaos TL, another great one), in which the butterfly effect spreads in ripples (IE: areas closer to the POD are effected first, while it can take centuries to affect more isolated areas). Although it might be be the most realistic, it is easier to write (and is the one I use).

Then there is the total butterfly effect, in which nothing after the POD is like OTL. I don't know any TL's that use this, as it would be too hard and in-depth to write for most people.

Lastly, there is what I call the Turtledove Butterfly Effect (TM). Events happen very similarly to OTL, even years after the POD. OTL historical figures crop up even in timelines where they would not exist - or would at least be minor figures. And everything is analogous to OTL, usually only thinly veiled. Not the best way to write AH by the forum's standard, but it is good commercially.
 
It depends on how much of the butterfly effect you buy into. You could take a basileus-like belief (see here: http://althistory.wikia.com/wiki/Basileus'_Interference_Timeline) in which some historical figures and events appear over a millenium after the initial divergence (although the major divergences happen later). When done correctly, it can still be a well-done timeline.

Or you could take Max Sinister's approach (in his Chaos TL, another great one), in which the butterfly effect spreads in ripples (IE: areas closer to the POD are effected first, while it can take centuries to affect more isolated areas). Although it might be be the most realistic, it is easier to write (and is the one I use).

Then there is the total butterfly effect, in which nothing after the POD is like OTL. I don't know any TL's that use this, as it would be too hard and in-depth to write for most people.

Lastly, there is what I call the Turtledove Butterfly Effect (TM). Events happen very similarly to OTL, even years after the POD. OTL historical figures crop up even in timelines where they would not exist - or would at least be minor figures. And everything is analogous to OTL, usually only thinly veiled. Not the best way to write AH by the forum's standard, but it is good commercially.

Well, Thande's LTTW, IMO, is a pretty good example of a total butterfly effect - it's been 80 years since the POD and I don't think there's a country on earth that looks even similar to OTL. Which, IMHO, is the way it should be. ;)
 
Well, Thande's LTTW, IMO, is a pretty good example of a total butterfly effect - it's been 80 years since the POD and I don't think there's a country on earth that looks even similar to OTL. Which, IMHO, is the way it should be. ;)
Not to mention those mega-collaborative projects (XXth century, 1493... anything else?) in the Collaborative Projects subforum.
 
Well, Thande's LTTW, IMO, is a pretty good example of a total butterfly effect - it's been 80 years since the POD and I don't think there's a country on earth that looks even similar to OTL. Which, IMHO, is the way it should be. ;)

Well, a French Revolution did happen around the same time as OTL, although a quite different one. That might be someone analogous to OTL.
 
Well, a French Revolution did happen around the same time as OTL, although a quite different one. That might be someone analogous to OTL.

OK... name one other thing Liseaux's France has in common with Napoleon's.

...

No, I didn't think so.
 
OK... name one other thing Liseaux's France has in common with Napoleon's.

...

No, I didn't think so.

I just meant that a revolution happened at around the same time, and expanded into Germany and Spain like in OTL. I know the two states are nothing alike, but that was not what I was trying to get at.
 

Nikephoros

Banned
Well, Thande's LTTW, IMO, is a pretty good example of a total butterfly effect - it's been 80 years since the POD and I don't think there's a country on earth that looks even similar to OTL. Which, IMHO, is the way it should be. ;)

I would expect that to be true, because in the Chaos timeline it could take years to travel, but LTTW communication is much more rapid (though nothing like today:p)

EDIT: Sorry if that is a confusing statement on my part.
 
I would expect that to be true, because in the Chaos timeline it could take years to travel, but LTTW communication is much more rapid (though nothing like today:p)

EDIT: Sorry if that is a confusing statement on my part.

No, makes sense. Obviously it's hard to butterfly the Aztecs away from Europe. Although if you take the view that no one after the POD would be the same as in OTL, just due to different sperm and so forth, I suppose you could...
 
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