How much does France loose in a CP victory?

Huh.

1. So, what WOULD it take for Algeria to break off after ww1?

2. If they absolutely can't, would the Ottomans accept Algerian refugees escaping French colonization?

1. If it becomes either too expensive (the Germans ask too much money) or if it becomes too hard to maintain control due to army constraints by the peace treaty.

2. Would the Turks even notice them coming? Ottoman administration is notoriously bad, what happens in the far away provinces might not reach Constantinople in time to decide weather or not they're ok with it happening. They could, if they're smart enough to realize the opportunity, settle them in unruly regions to water down ethnic minorities, like in Armenia for example.
 
1. If it becomes either too expensive (the Germans ask too much money) or if it becomes too hard to maintain control due to army constraints by the peace treaty.
Do you think the Algerians would take advantage of a central powers victory and throw a war of indepencance against a weakened downtrodden France?
 
Do you think the Algerians would take advantage of a central powers victory and throw a war of indepencance against a weakened downtrodden France?
Was there even organized opposition back then? If there is then yes of course, all over the Central Powers disgruntled minorities rebelled, there's no reason to assume it wouldnt happen in France as well. Otherwise you can also have lots of unrest (and then formation of organized parties) by the locals, with no formal organization, if the French try to solve their reparations problem by the most obvious course of action - loot the colonies to pay the Germans.
 
Was there even organized opposition back then?

That's a Nope. The Algerians at the time had a very... politically inheiret upper class and only the earliest stages of a modern cultural intelligencia. Given that, and the lack of access to modern arms and ideological divisions among the locals, any functional French countermeasure will be enough to crush a proper uprising. Maybe you could see anarchy slip into the outer reaches of the colony, but a liberation movement? No.
 
I think the main difference of our points boil down to how France moral survives their second defeat. I think too many would see it as hopeless and would not seek a third round when they have been already been beaten twice - especially if the peace threaty wasnt too harsh.

And just to be sure: they realized they cant go at it alone before WWI - they got Russia and Great Brittain in a very remarkable feet of diplomacy to back them - and still lost.

In the immediate term that would certainly be the case, and Germany is certainly better served by giving France terms she can live with (I.E a clearly second tier rank compared to German influences, but something that still let's her sit in the Great Powers club and have her economic interests respected. Think the US terms to Britain post WWI). However, if the context of the thread insists on Germany tossing the metaphorical sword onto the tribute scale and refuse to integrate France into the global system well... that's not better for peace and stability than any other attempt in history to surpress a large nation.

As for German's inassailable position... I think it's important to recognize Germany's new position is far less stable in this new world. She's going to be juggling plenty of balls in the air propping up her Eastern clients (especially once the Reds start actively meddling in the area), handling the disintegration of the Habsburgs and the Balkan squabbling, trying to nail down Africa despite Britain now actively and vigeriously trying to undermine them, dealing with the unanswered domestic problems, rebalancing the busted money supply and converting the economy to something balanced again, ect. They can't keep everything in as tight and defendable an order as they could when their state was compact and inward looking... at some point something will start slipping, and the jackles at the edges of her sphere will be only too happy to start nibbling away and German costs will start ballooning well behyond direct benefits. Overextention is a real phenomina
 
As can be seen in my previous response I do not believe the Entente can win without the USA, we are effectively doomed to at least a stalemate, slightly favoring the CPs but they are hard pressed to outright win without more changes earlier. So if the goal is to vanquish France and we are not doing so in a 1914 miracle play then I would argue for the East First departure as discussed elsewhere on this forum.

With Germany fighting defensively for the first year or two against France, France will bleed itself in fruitless offensives while Germany can maneuver and dismantle the Russians, here A-H does much better and we open the door for a more circumscribed war, the Ottomans and Italy may or may not join. With Russia bowing out then Germany can focus on breaking through and defeating France. Here the blockade might never quite hobble Germany and the naval war might be more aggressive as Britain has less to do on land. Britain cannot be defeated at sea or invaded so it still holds the best cards for any peace, throttling what Germany can make stick beyond territory it seizes.

So we may get the often sketched out German seizure of Paris, a bloody slog across France and the sword put into her heart. Without distractions the British can commit ample troops to slow the Germans but I do not see them stopping it, and that means much more of France is devastated. Here Germany can vanquish France but face virtual isolation from Britain unless they compromise, Germany cannot regain her colonies or get any of France's unless Britain lifts her seaborne check. And that is where we get wiggle room.

Germany can opt to carve up Europe and prepare to face off with Britain, punish France but yield to British demands and secure true peace, or muddle something not any of the two. Personally I do not think Germany knew what it wanted, their wants and their demands are quite malleable. Wilhelm wants more grandeur and more Princes that answer to his throne, he wants to visit Paris as a Caesar. He wants all to flatter his greatness. And he is in position to get what he craves.

Interestingly I have Germany not moving through Belgium so much of what Britain fears is just the French channel coast now, her justification to this war more threadbare, the naval war was never that far or such a close threat, Germany is not vilified, this is a different war. Germany can carve off more of Lorraine and likely demand a harsh indemnity, restrict France to a defensive Army and token Navy, but what it gains from France's Empire is reliant upon British agreement. One could toy with an occupied France akin to post-1940, that might be how Britain salvages things beyond the continent and German virtually absorbs France. Here Wilhelm's reputation is stronger and his dynastic inclination might get you a monarchy restored in France. If he made peace with Nicholas and Russia does not implode, we see an odd resetting of the clock to renew the age of Kings and Empires. So I could craft a French royal vassal state that begins to narrate itself a rebirth of the true Kaiserreich, the Holy Roman Empire resurrected. That makes for some strange fiction. Thus for me the map is far less dictated by what we know as we change things, to get a CP victory does not get us the same war, the same outcomes or even things so easily predicted. Therefore a CP victory is a change in magnitude rather than degree, it should truly reorder the future rather than tweak the details so things simply become the same.
 
In the immediate term that would certainly be the case, and Germany is certainly better served by giving France terms she can live with (I.E a clearly second tier rank compared to German influences, but something that still let's her sit in the Great Powers club and have her economic interests respected. Think the US terms to Britain post WWI). However, if the context of the thread insists on Germany tossing the metaphorical sword onto the tribute scale and refuse to integrate France into the global system well... that's not better for peace and stability than any other attempt in history to surpress a large nation.

As for German's inassailable position... I think it's important to recognize Germany's new position is far less stable in this new world. She's going to be juggling plenty of balls in the air propping up her Eastern clients (especially once the Reds start actively meddling in the area), handling the disintegration of the Habsburgs and the Balkan squabbling, trying to nail down Africa despite Britain now actively and vigeriously trying to undermine them, dealing with the unanswered domestic problems, rebalancing the busted money supply and converting the economy to something balanced again, ect. They can't keep everything in as tight and defendable an order as they could when their state was compact and inward looking... at some point something will start slipping, and the jackles at the edges of her sphere will be only too happy to start nibbling away and German costs will start ballooning well behyond direct benefits. Overextention is a real phenomina

This is the broad outline I chose for my own post-Great War, keeping as much of OTL as I could, thus my beating on about a stalemate end, everything more sends us to different orbits. A merely undefeated Germany has its hands full in a swamp chocked full of alligators. A-H is ripe for Soviet agitation and clandestine warfare, so might the Ottomans. The East needs rebuilt before it can be the foundation for German industry, and that process alienates a lot of folks. Germany is reliant on foreign trade and distant markets that Europe can only partly replace. France is a prickly one, Poland a restless one, the Baltic states vacillate, and Germany has everything demanding reform, investment or attention, at home and abroad. My best guide is the USA post-WW2, hoping to return home to peace it gets sucked into a global effort at stability that devolves into endless entanglement, Germany becomes a global bully more often than the champion it tells itself it is. i find this complicated future rather fascinating, still filled with potential and often just as many opportunities lost.
 
In the immediate term that would certainly be the case, and Germany is certainly better served by giving France terms she can live with (I.E a clearly second tier rank compared to German influences, but something that still let's her sit in the Great Powers club and have her economic interests respected. Think the US terms to Britain post WWI). However, if the context of the thread insists on Germany tossing the metaphorical sword onto the tribute scale and refuse to integrate France into the global system well... that's not better for peace and stability than any other attempt in history to surpress a large nation.

As for German's inassailable position... I think it's important to recognize Germany's new position is far less stable in this new world. She's going to be juggling plenty of balls in the air propping up her Eastern clients (especially once the Reds start actively meddling in the area), handling the disintegration of the Habsburgs and the Balkan squabbling, trying to nail down Africa despite Britain now actively and vigeriously trying to undermine them, dealing with the unanswered domestic problems, rebalancing the busted money supply and converting the economy to something balanced again, ect. They can't keep everything in as tight and defendable an order as they could when their state was compact and inward looking... at some point something will start slipping, and the jackles at the edges of her sphere will be only too happy to start nibbling away and German costs will start ballooning well behyond direct benefits. Overextention is a real phenomina

The problem with that is that even if everything outside of Germany goes to hell Germany has still:
At the very least 1,5 times the populace of france
A bigger and stronger economy
And not least: the strongest army of the world.

So if you take away their newly acquaired client states - whos only other option is Soviet Russia which is not likely to be too lucrative to the local elites - and collapse their closest ally A-H - which by the way would result at the very least of Austria proper joining Germany making it even stronger - , loose out completly on the Balkans and even have to deal with rebellions in Africa - i doubt Brittain would be too eager on supporting the natives but who knows - you still didnt adress how France can be a threat to Germany proper. Domestic problems and money would be solved - OTL the winners did not face collapse or rebellions and especially if this was not a late german win the costs of the war would be much lighter. And even Germany managed to stabilize after its loss - why couldnt he if he has won.

So unless Germany collapses completly on itselfs by screwing up everything possible which is very unlikely France wont be able to pose a credible threat to him.
 
That's a Nope. The Algerians at the time had a very... politically inheiret upper class and only the earliest stages of a modern cultural intelligencia. Given that, and the lack of access to modern arms and ideological divisions among the locals, any functional French countermeasure will be enough to crush a proper uprising. Maybe you could see anarchy slip into the outer reaches of the colony, but a liberation movement? No.
Are you saying that a France which has experienced a massive drain on money, resources and manpower and will likely be too exhausted by war for the moment would crush a rebellion in Algeria right after it was thrashed by Germany?
 
Are you saying that a France which has experienced a massive drain on money, resources and manpower and will likely be too exhausted by war for the moment would crush a rebellion in Algeria right after it was thrashed by Germany?

Well, if they are too exhausted as you say,than it's a tautaloge that they can't. What I'm saying is no sane French government is going to be fighting so long they can't scrape together the forces needed to smash a small army of poorly armed, untrained, poorly lead Algerians that's the best you're going to get out of this. They aren't running an autocracy that can't bend, so it just gets pushed to breaking, and Algeria is their top priority after France itself where there's zero chance of meaningful rebellion
 
The UK will want the Germans to withdraw from Belgium. In exchange for that, Britain will likely return Germans West African colonies (the others are either controlled by the Japanese or the Dominions) and allow the Germans to expand at France's expense. The Germans were particularly interested in Gabon, French Congo, Dahomey, and Upper Volta. Maybe all of French Equatorial Africa could become German.

In Europe, Germany will likely want the western slopes of the Vosges, Briey-Longwy, and Belfort. A boundary on the Moselle River (adjusted to include Briey-Longwy) could work too. At most, I can see the Germans taking all of Lorraine.

On top of that, demilitarized border zone, limitations on the number of troops France has, perhaps a ban on having an airforce, and a steep indemnity could be imposed.


Germany might have France withdraw from Morocco too, but I can't see the British signing off on Germany gaining Morocco (and West African ports).



I can see the ultimate fate of France being either...
  • Belgium v2. Big French-speaking buffer state between France and Germany
  • Member of German-led customs union (potentially in exchange for reduction of indemnity)
 
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