Tempering the "victory" to one more rather than less likely, I get similarly drawn out and costly war, ending as 1916 closes for practical purposes but extending into 1917 for all the wrong reasons. My "best" POD is Wilson becoming incapacitated after suspending US credit and before solidifying his goal of displacing Germany as the number two power. Without additional easy credit and certainly no unsecured loans beginning in 1916 the Entente are on far less certain footing.Tip a few scales towards Germany and the "victory" is an obviously stalemated but "winnable" war that is wound down for being too costly once Russia yields. I do not doubt that France can defend herself but I think her ability to mount any offensive is gone, the Germans may be slow but the tide is against France, a cold peace is going to be the best option. Britain will not let Germany have free reign but will give her enough to end the war as favorable to British aims as possible. Here it is likely a Provisional Government negotiating a peace with Germany, a peace that may be onerous but likely does not rise to a B-L fate nor preclude further revolution, it gives Poland and the Baltics to Germany/A-H, Finland goes independent and the Ukraine devolves into some anarchy but not certainty it is secured either way. So what does this Germany, grasping victory to the East, having stumbling allies, beginning to feel the blockade, its economy straining, the West a costly stalemate, do?
I would argue that Germany carves off a few choice morsels, some coal mines or iron ore, tens of square kilometers, it finds Britain unyielding in regards to Liege but amenable to a vague status quo. Britain holds the best cards and has the most to lose further, France will not give up territory without Germany occupying it, so I do think colonial Africa is the pressure relief valve. Wilhelm has too little influence to really be in control, the civilian authority is still likely at least equal to the Army's emergency hold, so the real terms should be rather benign at the end of the day. Germany really needs the war over and trade to resume, it needs an end to the arms races and the isolation promised if it does not bend to get a better peace. So it likely surrenders its positions in France to regain its colonies in Africa, how much more France must give is rather uncertain but a few bits like French Congo might not be a good bargain for reparations that cannot really be forced. Britain can give back SWA and the Pacific territories, to get Germany out of Belgium and more, the German position is China is likely gone, Japan can only be pushed so far. But the pins on a map are fluid and less important long term. What has France lost?
France has lost Italy as anything like an ally, it is at best a co-conspirator against Germany/A-H, but it is a dangerous playmate. France has lost its influence over Greece and much if not all its influence in the Balkans. France has lost Russia as any real ally, at best the threat from Germany gives them some warm spots but if Russia further devolves into chaos even that is uncertain. France has lost much of its foreign investment, its place in Ottoman affairs gone, its position in the far east far more tenuous. France here is as ungratefully dependent upon the British as ever, likely forced to be the only continental counter to German hegemony. France will have Belgium as a reluctant friend but the gravity of the German dominated European economy will revert her to neutrality and never true alliance. Britain can pursue detente and next rapprochement, appeasing Germany will be good for Britain, France will never be certain of how far she can depend on the British once more going to war for her salvation.
This depends upon savvy British diplomacy and sober German moves, rare commodities just after such a gruesome war, but France can retain her basic place, she has most of her Empire, she is still a real thorn in Germany's side if pressed, she has the ability to recover, her first priority is to get back as close to 1914 as possible, borders, economy, debt and investment, to get there she can offer up more than pieces of France, she has a few far away pawns to surrender, Germany can be sated on that with what she hauls in from the East, besides her hands will be full, her allies need a lot of rebuilding, her conquests need a lot of investment, the British still control the seas and the USA is the best option to reopen the trade flows that create the wealth that made Germany number two.
So my best guess is that France loses a lot but not as much as is obvious on the map, Germany can be bribed to withdraw, and worst of all France might just hunker down and turn its back on Germany, that might be its worst move, to try and build itself off the Empire and too tied to Britain, this France may lose out on the longer term recovery and boom an integrated Europe can offer. An ersatz cold war looks familiar and feels as hollow. Better if the passage of time allows France to engage Germany and become a major trade partner, she has much to offer and more to profit. But I think we take at least a generation or two before we see such a stable or prosperous Europe built on economic integration, France needs to lose some of its pride, if it can be a mid-sized fish in a bigger pond then perhaps what it lost isn't for nothing. An alternative is France building better bridges to the USA, as always the Americans are a wildcard, a better trade alliance there might create a strange realignment like all butterflies can.