How much damage would Seoul suffer in a war with North Korea?

How heavy would the casualties be for the North Korean army in the event of all out war and how significant of a threat would guerilla warfare be in the resulting occupation (both from remaining soldiers and brainwashed citizens)?
 
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The most common scenario, at least when I had access to folks who thought about this, was that if Kim thought the DPRK was going to implode and he (and other higher ups) were going to end up like Nicolai & his wife shot in a basement, that would be a motivator to attack the ROK. As far as Kim & the higher ups are concerned if they are dead/exiled whatever happens to the DPRK is of no matter (think Hitler and his vision of Germany destroyed when he dies). So the equation is, which is more risky doing nothing and possibly getting killed, or invading the south. If the former is close to 100% and the chance of success of the latter is only 10% I think it is clear what Kim would do - he and the upper echelons of the DPRK will not go gently in to that good night.

At least 50% of the population of the ROK lives in the greater Seoul area, and likewise a high percentage of ROK industry. Chem/bio weapons used on Seoul with limited artillery targeting (key government facilities etc) will cause panic and massive casualties while not destroying overmuch of the valuable infrastructure Kim would like to inherit. If the ROK government is decapitated, conventional forces from the DPRK advancing (which they would at least for a time) Kim might expect the ROK to cave - and it is a possibility although IMHO a very slim reed. Nukes which are airbursted will minimize the fallout, but there will still be some which will impact Japan.

China, will not invade North Korea right away. If and when the ROK/US forces are moving north I expect the Chinese would advance to some predetermined line "for humanitarian reasons" to keep North Korean refugees out of China, and make the "border" between the ROK and China some distance from the current border. The Chinese won't dive in until the outcome is clear, and not too many WMD are flying around - why take any risks. And, of course, the horse may learn to sing and Kim wins.

The scenario where the DPRK implodes is another worry, but presents a whole different set of issues.
 
The vast majority of the DPRK's artillery assets are sited in very well designed and located bunkers, ones that take full advantage of the rough terrain for which the Korean Peninsula is justly famous. The tubes are indeed old but they are not going to be used to act as counter battery against mobile forces. They will be striking targets that have been surveyed and updates literally for decades. Many of the shelters use natural caves, meaning it is unlikely that even a 2,000 pound LGB will be able to penetrate the overhead, a number of caves are known to have multiple entrances, with the entrances often modified so there is a dogleg, sometimes with the additional protection of blast doors, meaning any strike on the entrance will potentially fail to destroy the tube.

How useful would neutron warheads be in taking out these dug-in artillery pieces? Say a few hundred low yied, detonated at very low altitude.
 
How useful would neutron warheads be in taking out these dug-in artillery pieces? Say a few hundred low yied, detonated at very low altitude.

Poorly. A whole lotta dirt absorbs neutron radiation really well. Only a few feet of overhead is regarded as enough. Concepts for the use of Enhanced Radiation Warheads involved the user having his troops taking shelter in common underground dugouts when the warhead detonates. Plus, detonate too low and you wind up with a ground burst, which is a really bad idea with thermonukes (which is what a neutron bomb is) due to neutron-activated fallout.
 

nbcman

Donor
CW agents are actually terrific for covering large areas. They readily spread over a wide area with a small bursting charge. The shells can be VT fused ensuring that the ideal dispersal altitude is reached. The agents are heavier than air and will naturally seek out shelters. Vx is shockingly lethal (10 mg, or 0.00035 oz of agent is lethal on bare skin), is surprisingly persistent, forming small oily droplets on the underside of pretty much anything, and will redistribute into smaller, and still lethal droplets of disturbed or if improperly decontaminated, and can be transferred by clothing, skin, boots, or more or less any surface. Mustard gas is far less lethal, but shares many of the same characteristics regarding transmission. Imagine trying to get ALL the contaminated clothing off a victim before they enter an emergency room, before the staff even realizes what the patient has been exposed to, or getting every person to strip and walk through a decontamination shower before entering a shelter while shells are falling (very few hasty shelters will even have proper air filtration, much less complete CW decon gear). One contaminated person walks into a shelter with 100 other people and, at best, half of them are going to be exposed, more likely 3/4 or more.

Chemical weapons are LOUSY battlefield choices, but against a city or any other area denial target they are the cat's ass.

Dirty bombs would likely be via missile warheads. Again the bursting charge can ensure maximum coverage, the nature of the contamination ensures that any movement through the contaminated area results in increased area of exposure.

And if the North Koreans use a thickened version of mustard, it tends to clump up into balls where the outside surface becomes firmer but the remaining mustard agent is still potent. The thickened agents that the Germans disposed of in the Baltic Sea after WW2 are still washing ashore to this day. Seoul and its surroundings would be uninhabitable for quite a long time (weeks to months) to decontaminate the witches brew of agents (G agents, VX, and mustard) if the North Koreans decided to go full crazy.
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
And if the North Koreans use a thickened version of mustard, it tends to clump up into balls where the outside surface becomes firmer but the remaining mustard agent is still potent. The thickened agents that the Germans disposed of in the Baltic Sea after WW2 are still washing ashore to this day. Seoul and its surroundings would be uninhabitable for quite a long time (weeks to months) to decontaminate the witches brew of agents (G agents, VX, and mustard) if the North Koreans decided to go full crazy.
Absolutely. It is the CW version of a neutron bomb.
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
The most common scenario, at least when I had access to folks who thought about this, was that if Kim thought the DPRK was going to implode and he (and other higher ups) were going to end up like Nicolai & his wife shot in a basement, that would be a motivator to attack the ROK. As far as Kim & the higher ups are concerned if they are dead/exiled whatever happens to the DPRK is of no matter (think Hitler and his vision of Germany destroyed when he dies). So the equation is, which is more risky doing nothing and possibly getting killed, or invading the south. If the former is close to 100% and the chance of success of the latter is only 10% I think it is clear what Kim would do - he and the upper echelons of the DPRK will not go gently in to that good night.

At least 50% of the population of the ROK lives in the greater Seoul area, and likewise a high percentage of ROK industry. Chem/bio weapons used on Seoul with limited artillery targeting (key government facilities etc) will cause panic and massive casualties while not destroying overmuch of the valuable infrastructure Kim would like to inherit. If the ROK government is decapitated, conventional forces from the DPRK advancing (which they would at least for a time) Kim might expect the ROK to cave - and it is a possibility although IMHO a very slim reed. Nukes which are airbursted will minimize the fallout, but there will still be some which will impact Japan.

China, will not invade North Korea right away. If and when the ROK/US forces are moving north I expect the Chinese would advance to some predetermined line "for humanitarian reasons" to keep North Korean refugees out of China, and make the "border" between the ROK and China some distance from the current border. The Chinese won't dive in until the outcome is clear, and not too many WMD are flying around - why take any risks. And, of course, the horse may learn to sing and Kim wins.

The scenario where the DPRK implodes is another worry, but presents a whole different set of issues.
The PRC is likely to do what it actually wanted to do before the intervention in the Korean War. Set up a 100-150km deep "North Korea" puppet state that would give them a buffer between the West and the PRC that would also allow them to control efforts at illegal immigration, forcing those who want to escape to the ROK.
 
When I consider who's running the DPRK these days, it doesn't take much imagination to think that he could something completely irrational. Especially if he thinks that his position is threatened by outside forces.
 

Archibald

Banned
This thread is scary and depressing at the same time. Kim-Young-Ill has all four horsemen of apocalypse under his control: nuke, dirty bomb, CW, and BW.
Does the f*cker has neutron bombs ?
 
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