How much could a neutral Italy get away with in WW2?

With Italy and hence Greece out of the war, do the British even bother encouraging the Yugoslav coup that brought about German intervention, and without the threat of a British presence in Greece, does Hitler care enough about the Balkans to get involved?

See above post about chrome.
 
Thanks for all the posts.

The Italian Army was a paper tiger and Mussolini knew it. His greatest gamble ended in tears. In TTL where Italy doesn't enter the war, would the Italian military have a strong image? Perhaps the resident experts here can educate me. Was it well known in OTL the Italian military was severly inadequate prior to the war?

ETHIOPIA.

Everyone knew Italy was a paper tiger.
 
The allies didn't know Italy's army wasn't up to par until AFTER shooting started... the Italians WON in Spain (even if some of their first battles where clumsy, the ones towards the end of the war where successful)

Churchill was rather interested in keeping Benny out of the war, and was content to recognize his fait complits in return for him not declaring war on Britain... if Greece and the attacks into the alps displayed the weakness of the army, then the Italians should be credited for keeping up excellent appearances before hand... enough where the British and Americans wanted them to stay out and would have been willing to offer at least some concessions to buy Benny's neutrality

ETHIOPIA. That campaign already exposed the Italian Army as a joke, considering their opposition.
 
Lets say mussolini is suddenly has a spurt of sanity and decides after his annexations of Albania & Ethiopia he stops thare and does not cause any more trouble until war breaks out. The war goes on like usual france falls,battle of britian... mussolini says he is considering joining the germans in the war and he will unless several territorial issues are settled.
the allies respond that they will not give him all he wants ( malta,egypt,girbaltar,suez...) the brits kick sand in the face of the frence make several concessions of french colonies (tunisia,Djibouti,syria,madasgar,french guyana) will all go to italy & allies recoginize italian annexation of albani ,ethiopia
Musso wants more but the brits tell him take it or leave it and risk war.
Would the brits offer such terms? the french wouldnt like the terms but what could they do? (NOTHING):D
could this push the french into the axis quicker?:(
might spain look for some concessions of colonies(rest of morocco)

Winston was too tied to the Free French to go trading away THEIR colonies.

And FRENCH GUYANA?? Well, it'll get Italy into the war, along with the USA!:eek:
 
And FRENCH GUYANA?? Well, it'll get Italy into the war, along with the USA!:eek:

Agreed. During war in Europe involving someone like Hitler and his Nazis, the Americans would be even more adamant about their Monroe Doctrine and protecting the Western Hemisphere. Good luck getting them to let French Guyana be traded away, especially if it is to keep Italy out of the Nazi camp.
 
ETHIOPIA. That campaign already exposed the Italian Army as a joke, considering their opposition.

That was in 1935... and it didn't have the direct observation that would generally lower Italy's military standing amongst her neighbors

from 36-39 there was plenty of media and observers who saw Italian soldiers perform decent enough in Spain, and saw them be a big contributing factor towards Franco's victory

The Italian army's main structural faults where not particularly displayed in Spain
1. Officers distant from their men and not properly trained, and few with any experience... the CVT concentrated a lot of Italy's more regular officers who where at least semi competent
2. Italian artillery was obsolete... against the opposition it was employed against it worked fine and thus it wouldn't come up or be noticed
3. Italian aircraft where inferior to newer designs comming online... for the period their aircraft where on par with the gladiator and HE-51, and they like their neighbors had new untested designs comming on line
4. Italian tanks where inferior... they where satisfactory for the conflict and used successfully to win the war... Italy learned from their weaknesses and had newer more powerful models comming online just like her neighbors, and didn't embarass themselves

NOBODY in the British camp was itching for a war with Italy especially Churchill. That we have this low opinion of the value of their army now is HINDSIGHT, after the whoopings they got in Greece and during Operation Compass... however both of those events SURPRISED the British, whose general staff had previously rated the Italian army as at least competent

Therefore, if Churchill had the chance to buy Benny off to ensure good behavior and the price was affordable, he most certainly would have... his own memoirs are more than authoritive on this subject
 
-snip-

It appears Italy would be well served by not directly intervening at all. Even a limited intervention against Germany in Yugoslavia near the end of the war could backfire as it would highlight the Italian army's deficiencies. Perhaps Mussolini supports a covert Croatian resistance movement to prevent a communist serbia takeover. If there is a civil war after the war I would think Tito would prevail im the long term. His organisation would be better and Stalin would most definately support him. The Croatians would be splintered because a lot of them had supported Germany during the war and it may be too risky for Mussolini to aid them too much.

I might look at creating a timeline over the weekend as there does appear to be a bit of interest in one. I'm searching for a plausible pod for Mussolini to be distrustful of Hitler. I'm thinking of a bungling or more violent murder of the Austrian Dollfuss. In OTL Mussolini and he were friends and after his assassination relations with Hitler went frosty for a while. In fact they didn't pick up until the west condemned Italy's invasion of Ethiopia. Perhaps the west's reaction could be the pod. It might be enough to keep Mussolini neutral.

A butterfly of one of these pods would be the King making his objection of entering the war stronger then it was OTL. The King had said he was against it but he appeared to fold when France fell and it looked like Britain would shortly thereafter sue for peace. I'm not an expert on Italian politics in this period, but if the King was totally against a proposal could or would Mussolini still push it through?

Joining the Allies against Germany wouldn't necessarily have to be that bad. One of the reasons why the Italian army was so crappy was because Mussolini expected war to erupt in 1943 or thereabouts and not 1939. Neutrality gives him enough time to iron out the major defects in his army while the Allies and Axis are killing each other. He could then intervene in '44/'45 when the Germans are already headed for a fall.

The PoDs seem to be good although they don't have to be that complex. Just have Mussolini have a bump on the head as a kid which makes him knocks some common sensen into him or something...
 
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