How much can China expand before the 19th Century?

The Qianlong Empror had already all but doubled the size of China in the 18th century, adding Tibet, Mongolia and Xinjiang province, all of which had huge numbers of troublesome minorities. I don't think that the Qing could have expanded much more northwards, or else that would have meant coming into conflict with the Russians, of which the Manchus had experienced even before the Qing Empire came into existence.

Thus, I think that China expanded as much as it could have possibly done by the end of the 18th century.

One of the reasons why China had suffered as much as it did under the European powers were for several reasons afterwards. China had a series of poor emperors and corrupt officials during the early 19th century. Furthermore, the Grand Canal, which connected the Yangzte and Yellow Rivers and was the economic engine of China connecting north and south completely collapsed, causing peasant rebellions and scoring a major hit to its economy. Thus, by the time the Opium War broke out China had already experienced a series of calamities, and the Europeans had come at the worst possible moment in Chinese history, at the beginning of the downswing of the Qing.

Had the Europeans arrived at a time when the Qing was at its peak and a capable Emperor such as Qianlong had been on the throne the situation would have been different and China would likely have made the adjustment quickly.
 
I suppose if you delay the Europeans forcing open China you could see them expanding a little. Nepal could be just about doable I think as the Nepalese raided the south western Chinese empire. They could possibly shift the borders of Xingjiang a bit (the Tang after all were able to push quite deep into modern day afghanistan) during the Qing Era.

However, major expansion of China is propably not going to happen. The Qing empire, the largest Chinese empire not that stable. Many of the outlying regions of the empire (Tibet for example) had a fair amount of autonomy. Trying to conquer, and then control, more land would be too much trouble for Beijing to handle
 
They could have expanded further South.
The 18th century saw one or two emperors attack a few of the Southern Kingdoms only to be defeated.
I believe Siam was the country they attacked the most, but I'm going by memory here.
 
Another argument against going beyond China's OTL traditional borders is a lack of need. To the north there wasn't that much in the way of goods that Chinese citizens could not make or grow themselves, rendering the only reason why successive Chinese armies conquered or fought the steppe tribes there being prestige, which was quite expensive, or defence, which was necessary. The same situation pervaded in the west, in Sinkiang and Central Asia. If you're an Emperor and going to bring those places under heel, and have the excuse to do so, you're also eventually going to have to contend with distance and the usefulness of the place under direct rule combined. From what I know from histories of Genghis Khan, Central Asia was a veritable trading hub and advanced centre of civilisation just before the time he went around and killed everyone, and it was relatively the same under Tang rule. But again, garrisons are hard to maintain all the way out there and frowned upon anyway, which'll eventually make even the holding of places like Sinkiang increasingly hard to justify. Not that these areas weren't conquered; the Han, the Tang, the Yuan and the Qing all did so, but other dynasties like the Song, the Liao, the Ming, did not. Some of that was because of massive internal and external pressures, and some because there wasn't that much of a need; the tributary system satisfied. To the south lies South-east Asia, which looks a lot better; then again, Vietnam has a history of fighting very very well a long time before the Americans arrived. The proud martial history of the Vietnamese stretches back all the way to the first Chinese invasions, which inflicted so many casualties on successive armies that the region was included by the Emperor Hongwu (i think) on a list of countries to steer clear from..

A far more cohernt and detailed answer than I gave. However, thinking about it a little bit I can see a number of reasons why the empire would want to expand:
Firstly, as I think you mentioned, is defence. The rapid Qing expansion was driven by a desire to prevent other steepe upstarts from invading their empire.
Secondly there is of course trade. Possession of the silk road was important to the Tang and they, or the Yuan could of expanded their influence down it. The other possiblity is controlling the maritime trade routes. This could be done by seizing Veitnam (which was done on occasions) and possibly expanding south into Thailand and Malay. The Song, Yuan and Ming had large navies but lacked the will to create a maritime empire
Thirdly there are resources outside China that can be useful: decent horses from Mongolia and Tibet spring to mind (this is another reason why the Tang spread westwards). Fur from Sibera could be another resoures.
 
Had the Europeans arrived at a time when the Qing was at its peak and a capable Emperor such as Qianlong had been on the throne the situation would have been different and China would likely have made the adjustment quickly.

The Europeans did arrive when the Qing was at its peak and a capable Emperor, indeed, Qianlong, was on the throne. Look up the Macartney Embassy. That was indeed, precisely the problem. China was strong, so what need has it to listen to the outlander Barbarians who are rightfully tributary to the Son of Heaven?

What was needed was a capable and strong emperor, but a weak China, so that there is impetus to adjust ossified thinking and the drive to do so.

As for expansion, as mentioned, it's pretty much SEAsia or bust. Expanding further into Siberia is pointless and into Central Asia pretty much impossible. Have Qianlong's historical campaigns there be better though out, and there you go, though conquests are unlikely to last.
 
I think China's Qing-era borders and those of OTL are close to China's "natural limit," as it were. Perhaps China could come to encompass Nepal, if the emperors had been more vocal on enforcing regular tribute and demanding Nepalese submission. In a TL with a stronger China (no Taiping rebellion et al), I could see this happening. Qianlong's Ten Great Campaigns / Shi quan wu gong demonstrated interest in Vietnam and Burma. Had things gone differently during the rule of Quang Trung in Vietnam, the north and south could have remained split between the Tay Son and Nguyen dynasties respectively. Eventually the Tay Son in the north would have fallen into the Chinese sphere (once the Nguyen lords start expanding north with French backing), and the rest would then follow.
 

Typo

Banned
Korea and Annam could probably be included into China, the latter was for a while

Though if you are discussing sphere of influence, that's another matter altogether.
 
Look at the Mongol Empire.

It was ruled from Karakorum. It did effectively control Baghdad and Kiev, and sent forces to Adriatic.

Mongol Empire was logistically possible. It did, however, fall apart relatively quickly.

Note that Genghis Khan dispersed the hostile, subdued tribes, whether Mongol, Tungusic or Turkic speakers, among his tumens.

Now imagine a government which sends cavalry forces riding all the way to Adriatic. Except that, unlike OTL, the overlord is sitting not in his tent in Karakorum, but in Changan, Kaifeng or Beijing - and speaking and writing Chinese. And the cavalry generals on Adriatic also speak and write Chinese (though rank and file horsemen maybe do not).

And very importantly, the horsemen on Adriatic effectively have to obey the government sitting in a palace in China Proper, because their families are back in East Asia, their wages are sent all the way from East Asia and the government sitting in settled China Proper also is supplying them all across the steppes with gunpowder and handgun barrels.

Could any mechanism create such a government?
 
It's hard to expand China further than it already is, but it's not impossible.

Central Asia is a big candidate, as for some time otl Kyrgyzstan and some Uzbek lands were Chinese tributary states. The Uyghurs were conquered by the Qing, it's not unthinkable if China had not decayed so much as iotl they might've hung onto a few more territories. Arunachal Pradesh (Southern Tibet) was for a long time considered part of Tibet, and really the states of Assam, Nagaland, etc. could very well have ended up Chinese with a more proactive Empire (particularly with greater expansion of Yunnan).

Lands up to the Amur and as far east as Greater Manchuria is also not terribly implausible, although both Russians and Japanese will fight over this undoubtedly as time passes.

China holding onto Nepal as a vassal state and keeping it under its influence is possible, but I seriously doubt it ends up incorporated as part of China except in a China-wank/seriously more competent imperial China. It definitely means China needs to hold on to more territory in the Pamirs, especially closer to Khyber Pass and the Afghan trade routes.
 
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I think the best bet is Taiwan and then the Philippines. An earlier expansion to Taiwan would have set a precedent for going further.

This might require a mercantile China, which is somewhat unlikely, and is one of the weaknesses of Saepe Fidelis's TL. However, I'm sure it's not impossible, and his TL is worth reading.

Let China be more interested in the sea a couple of hundred years earlier, and you might get this. (Worse problems with dwarf barbarian (i.e. Japanese) pirates? ??)
 
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