How might European military tactics change with earlier gunpowder?

also, an earlier point mentioned holds a great deal of water- If muslims are not perceived well by the ALchemist, going to India would not at all be a bad idea in his mind, especially if he were from a buddhist family.
 
Actually it is super important. It's easy to say that it would get to the Byzantines, but said trainer could go through Africa and all the way to Spain, or head north across the river paths and end up amongst the Rus. The outcome of such wouldn't cause a world of difference.
It is in real life, I agree. But for the purposes of this discussion I'm more interested in what happens once Europe has the stuff.

... if you are scared of Muslims, you are unlikely to travel all the way to Europe from China. There are many Rajs of India who would be much more suitable for such a person.
I think we have already established that this person travelled through the Khazar territories and Rus' to get to Christian Europe. Plus, to get to India after about 650 you have to go through Muslim territory, which the trader wouldn't be very happy about.

Then he is a terrible salesman.

And that isn't a minor point. It's the biggest point if anything.
The Silk Road is Ann absurdly expansive journey filled with dangers without the security nets that we take for granted today.
If you are travelling on the Silk Road but don't intend to sell your wares as you go, you had better be a monarch. Otherwise, you can't guarantee the journey there or back, particularly if banditry occurs as it was often likely to pre-mongol.

So the hypothetical trader has to bring enough that it is going to take up a lot of their cargo. They can't bring 1 sample, because they they are out of it by the time they have demonstrated it to a customer. They can't bring just 2 small samples, because then they have to rely on their first demonstration selling it, otherwise they are screwed.
Any more? Well now you are making a serious investment. You are taking up room which could be used for supplies. Now you have to sell it as you go along or you die before you get anywhere.
I never said the trader brings only gunpowder. As he is on the Silk road at least for some of his journey, he probably carries some silk and maybe some other exotic stuff. These items could be sold to the Turkic peoples between Mongolia and at least the Khazar realm. Then he still has the gunpowder to sell to someone at the end of the journey. As discussed in a few of the other posts, the Frankish kings and the ERE would pay a lot for a new weapon, while the nomads and stuff east of the Khazars would have less need for it. Merchants will seek the highest profit, which makes selling to Europe much more sensible.

Gunpowder wasn't really weaponised to any meaningful degree until 12th Century in China which would put crude handguns and cannon in Europe by maybe 1200-1250 or about 100-200 years earlier than OTL. Metallurgy for the larger cannons will be a big problem.

Assuming the development of gunpowder weapons is broadly similar then you'll need parallel advances in the construction of the weapons locks and other moving parts before they are an effective gamechanger in warfare. I don't really think things would change much at all

Gunpowder was known to be explosive by the 9th century (which is roughly where I have placed the POD). This doesn't mean the weapons will be the same. Rockets and grenades have been discussed earlier as different uses that could be found for it, that need lesser quality metal than a cannon. Both of these would scare horses, and probably men as well. So it would certainly have an impact, although one different in appearance to that of OTL.

also, an earlier point mentioned holds a great deal of water- If muslims are not perceived well by the ALchemist, going to India would not at all be a bad idea in his mind, especially if he were from a buddhist family.

This does raise an interesting point (although I still question how it gets to them while avoiding Muslim Persia) - what might the Indians do with it if they get it?

- BNC
 
It is in real life, I agree. But for the purposes of this discussion I'm more interested in what happens once Europe has the stuff.
But if you acknowledge that it would in real life, then you must surely also agree that we can't answer this question without that detail?


I think we have already established that this person travelled through the Khazar territories and Rus' to get to Christian Europe. Plus, to get to India after about 650 you have to go through Muslim territory, which the trader wouldn't be very happy about.
Not from China. Particularly if like many chinese merchants of the era you go by sea. Still, by going through the Khazars he is certainly running into Muslims on the way.


I never said the trader brings only gunpowder. As he is on the Silk road at least for some of his journey, he probably carries some silk and maybe some other exotic stuff.
I got that. The problem is that, aside from small distance travel, trade rarely worked like that. It wasn't often the case really in human history untill the mongols where somebody could expect to carry resources for specific individuals over the whole length of Eurasia. That was one of the things which was so awesome about their rule. At this time, trade isn't a case of going "I will sell this here, I will sell this here and I reckon the people in this city will love this!" unless it is a small route. If you are expecting to be a travelling merchant travelling that distance, your mindset is more likely to be "Ok, I need to sell my wares in this city and make enough of a profit to buy more here to then move on to the next city." In reality, prior to long expeditions in the post-mongol era being possible, we only got resources such as specific spices and silks from India because a merchant in Delhi would make the journey to Samarkand. A merchant in samarkand might trade their wares from that exchange over in Basra, who might trade their wears in Baghdad etc. One merchant carrying Gunpowder all the way from China to the Rus has to be so insane as to make the journey impossible.

As discussed in a few of the other posts, the Frankish kings and the ERE would pay a lot for a new weapon, while the nomads and stuff east of the Khazars would have less need for it. Merchants will seek the highest profit, which makes selling to Europe much more sensible.
I haven't read all the posts, but considering the development of Gunpowder as military tech was almost exclusively against and by nomadic peoples, the idea that nomadic tribes would not want gunpowder is absurd.
 
I would suggest that instead of discussing how it spread to Europe, let's discuss the effects. So let's say that some Lombard dude discover it accidental and how to make it spread all over the Christian World. Who cares, it's in Europe. Let's discuss BiteNibbleChomp question, what is the effect?
 
But if you acknowledge that it would in real life, then you must surely also agree that we can't answer this question without that detail?
Hence I have tried to settle on a way for it to get there: China - Silk Road - Khazaria - Constantinople? - Francia/Italy/wherever. Everyone enjoys asking for more details about that journey.

Still, by going through the Khazars he is certainly running into Muslims on the way.

If he starts out in Northern China, goes through Mongolia (maybe sells silks/coats) and then roughly direct to the Volga and then Europe, he avoids anything owned by the Muslims, at least in 850. The Khazars themselves were a mix of Jews and pagans.

I haven't read all the posts, but considering the development of Gunpowder as military tech was almost exclusively against and by nomadic peoples, the idea that nomadic tribes would not want gunpowder is absurd.
They would have less use for it, not 'zero use'. This is because the ERE and Frankish kings are defending against Vikings, Muslims and each other, while the nomad kings' positions are more secure.

I would suggest that instead of discussing how it spread to Europe, let's discuss the effects. So let's say that some Lombard dude discover it accidental and how to make it spread all over the Christian World. Who cares, it's in Europe. Let's discuss BiteNibbleChomp question, what is the effect?

Yes, I would like to see the discussion go back to how it was intended. Can we please ignore the exact specifics just to find out what would happen if it was used in the Viking Age?

- BNC
 
Hence I have tried to settle on a way for it to get there: China - Silk Road - Khazaria - Constantinople? - Francia/Italy/wherever. Everyone enjoys asking for more details about that journey.
Fair enough.



If he starts out in Northern China, goes through Mongolia (maybe sells silks/coats) and then roughly direct to the Volga and then Europe, he avoids anything owned by the Muslims, at least in 850. The Khazars themselves were a mix of Jews and pagans.
Whilst the Khazars where indeed not Muslims in this period, they would trade for it. The parts you didn't adress (the journey all the way, the nature of trade at this time) still means that in a realistic version of this, the Khazars would get it and then inevitably the Muslims would too.


They would have less use for it, not 'zero use'. This is because the ERE and Frankish kings are defending against Vikings, Muslims and each other, while the nomad kings' positions are more secure.
Nomad kings being secure is very very very rare. Most chieftans are going to be fighting against eachother, hence why they would trade/rob every group they could get for advanced tech.

To specify, I am not trying to p oop on your idea. I think it is a really cool one. I just don't think without ASB there is any way that gunpowder is going to somehow get to Christendom earlier than the Islamic world.

Saying that though, if the general thing you are interested here is a stronger west you do already have that. If for instance the city states of the Rus develop the "star style" fort or are encouraged to develop low armour, high mobility/depolyment style warfare off the cossacks, they are going to have a much stronger time against the central eurasian hordes.

More than that, although you are looking more for military use in general, I am firmly of the beleif that a longer lived Rus city state environment which truly gets to reap the benefits of something like the Mongols is going to do VERY well for itself. In terms of military use, I think a surviving Rus in such a world are more likely to pick up general military tactics and development from the East whilst also being in the nice position of being able to buy Nomadic forces for whatever petty wars in Europe they need.
 
Europe could have its advantage for a decade without gunpowder reaching Baghdad, Damascus or Cordoba, and I don't think ASBs are needed for that. While a Chinese merchant may not trade with Muslims because of a previous event in his life, the Christian princes and merchants that are deeply involved with the religious politics of the time are not going to trade with the infidel for something that represents such an advantage in warfare. Trading for spice or silk or ancient writings is very different to trading for a decisive weapon. It would be like the USA selling a nuke to West Germany in 1946 - a massive profit could be made but these guys can't be trusted with so much power.

Saying that though, if the general thing you are interested here is a stronger west you do already have that. If for instance the city states of the Rus develop the "star style" fort or are encouraged to develop low armour, high mobility/depolyment style warfare off the cossacks, they are going to have a much stronger time against the central eurasian hordes.

More than that, although you are looking more for military use in general, I am firmly of the beleif that a longer lived Rus city state environment which truly gets to reap the benefits of something like the Mongols is going to do VERY well for itself. In terms of military use, I think a surviving Rus in such a world are more likely to pick up general military tactics and development from the East whilst also being in the nice position of being able to buy Nomadic forces for whatever petty wars in Europe they need.

Would the star fort end up replacing castles, or would forts just not end up being used very much at all? In the 18th century there were far fewer forts than in the 14th, and gunpowder probably had something to do with that. Or do we see ridiculously complex forts rising to fight against the bombs? After all, the bombs won't be as effective as a 16th century cannon.

- BNC
 
Europe could have its advantage for a decade without gunpowder reaching Baghdad, Damascus or Cordoba, and I don't think ASBs are needed for that. While a Chinese merchant may not trade with Muslims because of a previous event in his life
I know you have kept giving that as an example, but it doesn't hold up as a decent one.

As said many times, that isn't really the attitude of a trader. Limiting your customers when to live is to trade is not a strong move. You are asking for an individual who is wanting to make an incredibly long journey to a land they have only really heard of, largely through area that at least economically is dominated by islamic merchants (yes, the Steppes economy had a lot of islamic influence even during this time) without trading a vital good to survive. More than this, you are asking somebody to make such an insane journey when (if their prejudice is so strong) there are known and much better trade partners near by, on journeys which they can sustain without likely dying or being robbed, without having to go through extremely hostile terrain that is dominated by raiding, where they are more likely to guarantee a return journey.
It really really really doesn't matter if said chinese merchant is the best merchant in the world. That is not how trade works in the period you are looking at.

Just put yourself in their shoes. You are given two options.
A) Trade with the Indian city near by. You have a smaller journey, you can guarantee that the roads you take will be relatively protected, you have enough cities en-route and enough time that you can pack an excess to what you need to trade/survive. More th an this, you KNOW that in India you will pick up stuff for the return journey which you can sell at home.
B) Travel west to a place you don't neccesarily know exists, through regions where civilisation is sparse, the wilderness is harsh and slavery is the backbone of the mercantile economy. Not only do you not know if said mythical place to the west exists, but you also have not heard of nearly as decent trade, don't know if you will have ANYTHING to trade on the way back, will easily have a multiple year journey through a land known for hard winters.

Now here is the catch. Now imagine B) with the caveat that you have specifically cordened off part of your trade caravan. To trade it enough to demonstrate, you will need a sizeable portion. Now you need to take into account all of B, but knowing that you will have less food, less items to survive the journey there and back AND you have no clue if there is a market for this far off land for this oddly specific trade.

In short, you are asking somebody of reasonable means (to be a trader) to choose between a relatively safe and sure fire rich way of living vs an incredibly dangerous and risky journey which doesn't promise as much reward.

It isn't ASB in the literal sense in that it is theoretically possible, but it is ASB in the same way that all the top leaders of the US Confederacy could have decided unanimously without talking to eachother that actually slavery was a bad thing and that they couldn't be bothered to fight the Union. Theoretically possible, but unlikely to the point where it may as well be. Nobody who has the acumen to be a trader is going to be so fundamentally stupid, and if they are so fundamentally stupid they are not going to survive the journey.


, the Christian princes and merchants that are deeply involved with the religious politics of the time are not going to trade with the infidel for something that represents such an advantage in warfare. Trading for spice or silk or ancient writings is very different to trading for a decisive weapon. It would be like the USA selling a nuke to West Germany in 1946 - a massive profit could be made but these guys can't be trusted with so much power.
Comparing Nukes isn't really the best comparrison, as Nukes have a whole other dimension to them.

But unfortunately, once again this does not reflect the reality of the situation. Think for instance on how the Rus became so popular for trading with the initially pagan vikings when they themselves were largely ruled by Christians, through trading Byzantine weaponry, on how Byzantine rulers would likewise buy and arm Vikings for their Varangian guard, or how amazing technology such as Damascus Steel reached across the world.
But even if the princes of the area did go against the historical trend and decide to not trade with the heathans (something which doesn't make much sense with the scenario), this is also the era in which the city states of the Rus are policy/economic wise dominated by the Veche, which were for most extents and purposes often merchant councils, or at least usually dealt in policy which maximised trade for the city states of hte Rus to a very effective extent. Even if the ASB circumstances of the insane trader making his way to the city states of the Rus occurs, and then the princes of said states all go and suddenly become zealots in a way unusual for the time, they then have to somehow NOT introduce it to their local Veche which will trade it on.

I appreciate what you are going for, but the scenario is just ASB. Wouldn't it be far more fruitful just to do it some other way? Hell, something like having a chinese alchemist on the journey go the traditional way (silk road), make a stop on the Volga trade routes and then fall in love with a local woman before settling down and giving the secret is something that (whilst unlikely) is plausible. Not even in such a circumstance I don't see it likely that it would be long untill the Islamic world gets it (I would guess less than a decade, and that it would likely still disseminate through the Islamic world quicker than through the Christian world even with such a delay), but it is at least close to your objective without getting into asb territory.



Would the star fort end up replacing castles, or would forts just not end up being used very much at all? In the 18th century there were far fewer forts than in the 14th, and gunpowder probably had something to do with that. Or do we see ridiculously complex forts rising to fight against the bombs? After all, the bombs won't be as effective as a 16th century cannon.

- BNC
I think it would end up replacing castles eventually. Not immediatly though. I think we would likely see a gradual shift as the technology becomes less and less ignored. Even with the best will in the world, a lot of old castle designs are not well made for gun emplacements and fire arrows were (to the extent of my knowledge) usually not fired from the defending line in case they accidently caused an internal fire.
 
You know, I think him selling to Khazaria does not necessarily preclude Gunpowder getting to and having an independent effect on Central and Western Europe. I mean in OTL it did and it still went through the Islamic world first. It doesn't really matter who gets it first in order for Europe to have some experience with it on its own, simply that it gets to Europe at all. Some even say that the Arabs invented their own gunpowder independently. And, it has been established numerous times that technically, gunpowder can be invented at any point in time in a civilization with an advanced scientific tradition- the key is that its inventor both encounter the coincidence of making it then subsequently survive the ordeal of discovering it.
 
Comparing Nukes isn't really the best comparrison, as Nukes have a whole other dimension to them.
It probably isn't *the best*, but a nuke in today's world probably has a similar scare factor to a big explosion in a time when the most horrific injury in battle was simply being cut to pieces.

Wouldn't it be far more fruitful just to do it some other way? Hell, something like having a chinese alchemist on the journey go the traditional way (silk road), make a stop on the Volga trade routes and then fall in love with a local woman before settling down and giving the secret is something that (whilst unlikely) is plausible. Not even in such a circumstance I don't see it likely that it would be long untill the Islamic world gets it (I would guess less than a decade, and that it would likely still disseminate through the Islamic world quicker than through the Christian world even with such a delay), but it is at least close to your objective without getting into asb territory.

Seeing as we have never settled on what happens after the merchant reaches Europe, this will do for an explanation. I would like to point out that the Khazars were traditional allies of the ERE (dating from the time of Leo III), so would be far more likely to send gunpowder secrets to the ERE than to the Muslims. The ERE spent a large time of its history at war with the Caliphate further south, so I really doubt they would be keen to trade it to the enemy within a couple of years of getting it.

Even with the best will in the world, a lot of old castle designs are not well made for gun emplacements and fire arrows were (to the extent of my knowledge) usually not fired from the defending line in case they accidently caused an internal fire.
I can't speak for Chinese tactics, but in Europe it was somewhat common to light the tips of arrows on fire. This would still occur from castle walls.

You know, I think him selling to Khazaria does not necessarily preclude Gunpowder getting to and having an independent effect on Central and Western Europe. I mean in OTL it did and it still went through the Islamic world first. It doesn't really matter who gets it first in order for Europe to have some experience with it on its own, simply that it gets to Europe at all. Some even say that the Arabs invented their own gunpowder independently. And, it has been established numerous times that technically, gunpowder can be invented at any point in time in a civilization with an advanced scientific tradition- the key is that its inventor both encounter the coincidence of making it then subsequently survive the ordeal of discovering it.

I would guess less than a decade, and that it would likely still disseminate through the Islamic world quicker than through the Christian world even with such a delay

In OTL the Muslims got gunpowder twenty years before the Christians (1220 vs 1241). In that time, the technology did not spread north and was still a bit of a legend when it was used against the Hungarians etc. in 1241. The world in 850 was very much less connected than it was in 1250, so a decade is not an unreasonable assumption for how long it could take to spread between the two.

- BNC
 
It probably isn't *the best*, but a nuke in today's world probably has a similar scare factor to a big explosion in a time when the most horrific injury in battle was simply being cut to pieces.
Not historically, but ok.



Seeing as we have never settled on what happens after the merchant reaches Europe, this will do for an explanation. I would like to point out that the Khazars were traditional allies of the ERE (dating from the time of Leo III), so would be far more likely to send gunpowder secrets to the ERE than to the Muslims. The ERE spent a large time of its history at war with the Caliphate further south, so I really doubt they would be keen to trade it to the enemy within a couple of years of getting it.
And if the Khazars were a modern state and not a loose knit confederation of tribes, that would make sense. As they were neither, it does not.


I can't speak for Chinese tactics, but in Europe it was somewhat common to light the tips of arrows on fire. This would still occur from castle walls.
I was talking about the Chinese style. It's relatively safe to set an arrow on fire from a castle wall, but Chinese style fire arrows (what I presume they would show) could potentially backfire.





In OTL the Muslims got gunpowder twenty years before the Christians (1220 vs 1241). In that time, the technology did not spread north and was still a bit of a legend when it was used against the Hungarians etc. in 1241. The world in 850 was very much less connected than it was in 1250, so a decade is not an unreasonable assumption for how long it could take to spread between the two.
Ignoring the reality of trade, the reason I think a decade at best is stretching it is because already the Chinese are only starting to use gunpowder for military application themselves.

I think you mentioned 850 earlier as a proposed time? That puts us 50 years out of the Chinese fire arrows and (as far as I know) known military application. Anyone in Europe at this time isn't likely largely to focus on the novelty of gunpowder at first just as the Chinese did.
So a decade of difference doesn't mean much, particularly as the Islamic World has better access to discover military applications than Christendom.
 
I think you mentioned 850 earlier as a proposed time? That puts us 50 years out of the Chinese fire arrows and (as far as I know) known military application. Anyone in Europe at this time isn't likely largely to focus on the novelty of gunpowder at first just as the Chinese did.
So a decade of difference doesn't mean much, particularly as the Islamic World has better access to discover military applications than Christendom.

They knew it was explosive 'some time in the 9th century'. The politics of the world weren't that much different between 850 and 880, so the exact time doesn't matter too much. Anyway, the material could end up used in other ways than fire arrows - a flamethrower type thing would be quite exciting!

- BNC
 
Gunpowder was known to be explosive by the 9th century (which is roughly where I have placed the POD). This doesn't mean the weapons will be the same. Rockets and grenades have been discussed earlier as different uses that could be found for it, that need lesser quality metal than a cannon. Both of these would scare horses, and probably men as well. So it would certainly have an impact, although one different in appearance to that of OTL.

War elephants scared horses (and men) when they were first introduced to Europe. They were effective in a handful of battles and then tactics adapted to compensate.

Early gunpowder is not a big thing. Cannon and man portable slugthrowers are.

Grenades and rockets didn't really see any significant use until 17th-18th centuries and then only in very narrow applications.

Honestly - the early adoption of gunpowder is not a game changer - otherwise it would have been a Chinese world spanning empire not a Mongolian one.
 
They were effective in a handful of battles and then tactics adapted to compensate.
And the whole point of this thread was to discuss these tactics and what they might end up looking like.

Honestly - the early adoption of gunpowder is not a game changer - otherwise it would have been a Chinese world spanning empire not a Mongolian one.
China had no reason to expand, it had all the resources it needed with what territory it already owned. That is probably what stopped it more than anything.

- BNC
 
Cavalry adapted to elephants by continual exposure (think police horse training) or by simply not attacking where they were (limited number of elephants). Infantry adapted to elephants by deploying more mobile anti-elephant infantry armed with missile weapons to prevent them from ever reaching the formed infantry phalanx.

The deployment of crude grenades or rockets can be dealt with in this way - they are either short ranged or inaccurate and the greater rate of fire can overcome the shock value of gunpowder (as the Mongols proved)

The Song with all the advantages that the gunpowder weapons supposedly provided lost to the Khitans (Jin) and later the Mongols (Yuan) - they were not even looking to expand but defend their own provinces. Early gunpowder is not a big deal.

Trained infantry using mass produced slug throwers (backed by pike) and mobile cannon is a big deal but no one invented this until the Spanish / Dutch in Europe and maybe the later Ming in Asia
 
The deployment of crude grenades or rockets can be dealt with in this way - they are either short ranged or inaccurate and the greater rate of fire can overcome the shock value of gunpowder (as the Mongols proved)

Would this work with the Vikings as the opponents? I think they are the most likely victims of it in Europe and were probably capable of dealing with lighter infantry.

- BNC
 
Would this work with the Vikings as the opponents? I think they are the most likely victims of it in Europe and were probably capable of dealing with lighter infantry.

- BNC
If what you are asking is if a combination of rockets grenades and land mines could put the fear of god into a Viking shield wall then I'm tempted to say yes. But Vikings didn't just deploy close order infantry - they could and did deploy large numbers of archers too
 
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