How Many Terms Could Theodore Roosevelt Get?

[Stolengood]

If Roosevelt had not made his infamous announcement on Election Night 1904, he almost certainly would have run again in 1908 -- and, of course, as we know, he DID run again in 1912.

But how many times could he have run, nd how many times could he have won? And how, and why? All these questions -- including the poll answers -- I'd like you to ask them.

(And now WITH poll! )

 

[dw93]

If Roosevelt had not made his infamous announcement on Election Night 1904, he almost certainly would have run again in 1908 -- and, of course, as we know, he DID run again in 1912.

But how many times could he have run, nd how many times could he have won? And how, and why? All these questions -- including the poll answers -- I'd like you to ask them.

(And now WITH poll! )

I would think no more than four, if there's the same kind of divide in the GOP that there was in 1912 OTL, than he'd only get three.

 

[Stolengood]

Anyone else? Bueller? Bueller?

 

[kodak]

Even if TR was up to a fourth term, Wilson would probably beat him in 1912.

 

[mr.bernham]

Five terms. He could beat Wilson with a united GOP.

 

[Sabot Cat]

Assuming he lives longer than OTL, he could get as many terms as he runs for, I believe.

 

[Cryostorm]

Assuming he lives longer than OTL, he could get as many terms as he runs for, I believe.

Yeah it is amazing how popular he was, what was with the Roosevelts, and since the US economy was good until after his death and would have been on the winning side of a war, regardless of which side he picked, he could have gone till the day he died which would have interesting effects on the twentieth century Republicans by breathing extra life into its progressive faction.

 

[cra0422]

I voted 5, but that's only because he would have died in office because he died in 1919 OTL.

 

[Stolengood]

I voted 5, but that's only because he would have died in office because he died in 1919 OTL.

Nope; butterflies. Were he in office all this time, he'd never have gone on his River of Doubt trip, and THAT was what killed him.

Damn, maybe I should've made an option for seven terms...

 

[mr.bernham]

Nope; butterflies. Were he in office all this time, he'd never have gone on his River of Doubt trip, and THAT was what killed him.

Damn, maybe I should've made an option for seven terms...

Okay, then in this case I say he makes it to 2020 and wins a sixth term...hell I wouldn't be surprised if Teddy made it to 1932.

Though I think that after a certain point he would have to step down. With no River of Doubt trip, the possibility of six or maybe even seven terms becomes a more realistic one given that he was already popular and a US triumph in WWI would just make him look better.

 

[Emperor Constantine]

I'd say five. After that Teddy might not want to run again, having been president for nearly 20 years.

 

[Mikestone8]

Okay, then in this case I say he makes it to 2020 and wins a sixth term...hell I wouldn't be surprised if Teddy made it to 1932.

Though I think that after a certain point he would have to step down. With no River of Doubt trip, the possibility of six or maybe even seven terms becomes a more realistic one given that he was already popular and a US triumph in WWI would just make him look better.

Why? Winning WW1 didn't do the Democrats any good.

And his relations with Congress - even assuming it's Republican - will be getting steadily worse. Even OTL he got little done in his last year of office. His party had had about as much reform as it could stomach. That story will continue in a third term, and by 1912 he may well be thoroughly frustrated and decide to call it a day.

 

[Stolengood]

Even OTL he got little done in his last year of office.

That would be because his party KNEW he was out the door and would not have to deal with him any more. Were he staying, I think his legislative agenda would have passed a lot less bumpier.

 

[loneranger]

I'd say the most likely scenario would be four (but different to how you put it):
1900, 1904, 1912, 1916. If he had done 1900,1904,1908 then he would likely have lost in 1912 due to voter fatigue (IMHO). But if he's in office in time for the start of WWI then I could see him swinging that into an extra term ala FDR.

That said, I think the Presidency might kill him faster it - it's never been kind to the health of the person in office. Probably the stress.

 

[Paul V McNutt]

If he runs in 1908, he gets one more term. He appoints Taft Chief Justice in 1910. Taft is happier. He then endorses Elihu Root in 1912. If Root disappoints him as Taft did OTl and he runs in 1916, he does not get the nomination. He would run as the Progressive Party candidate and split the Republican and pro war vote. Since ITTL, he was not president in 1913, he still goes to Brazil and the trip still ruins his health. He still dies in 1919 and can't run in 1920.

 

[Stolengood]

Root never, EVER wanted to run, though. If it wasn't TR, it was always ever going to be Taft. Roosevelt was his biggest booster.

And, Paul, the River of Doubt trip only came about by chance; it's easily butterfliable. You're wrong to only vote for three terms.

 

[Mikestone8]

That would be because his party KNEW he was out the door and would not have to deal with him any more. Were he staying, I think his legislative agenda would have passed a lot less bumpier.

The popular parts of it might. But Congress is getting fed up with his dramatic expansion of the role of the Executive Branch, and will welcome a chance to cut him down to size. If he attempts to jump into a European war for which public opinion is nowhere near ready, this will be a golden opportunity to do so without much fear of electoral consequences.

 

[Stolengood]

The popular parts of it might. But Congress is getting fed up with his dramatic expansion of the role of the Executive Branch, and will welcome a chance to cut him down to size. If he attempts to jump into a European war for which public opinion is nowhere near ready, this will be a golden opportunity to do so without much fear of electoral consequences.

I'm not certain TR would've launched the U.S. right into WWI without cause, even as he was one agitating for war -- he was more one to try and lead the people on issues they had already decided upon. If the Lusitania happens on schedule ITTL -- or even something like it -- he will probably go to war over that.

 

[Mikestone8]

I'm not certain TR would've launched the U.S. right into WWI without cause, even as he was one agitating for war -- he was more one to try and lead the people on issues they had already decided upon. If the Lusitania happens on schedule ITTL -- or even something like it -- he will probably go to war over that.

He might like to, but Congress - whether Democratic or Republican - would not. Public and Congressional opinion was nowhere near ready.

Even Cabot Lodge spoke only of "upholding rights of neutrals", and wasn't yet ready to advocate war openly. As for TR, at this point he was only saying that, if POTUS, he would have "acted in such a way" that Germany would either have to change her behaviour or fight - a conveniently vague formula.

Keep in mind that the "bully pulpit" only works when you are preaching to the converted, or at least to the receptive. In 1915-16, Americans, in the street or in Congress, weren't even close to that, and TR (whose letters show that he was well aware of this mood) was far too smart to invite a snub by calling for a war resolution which he knew wouldn't pass.

 

[Stolengood]

Keep in mind that the "bully pulpit" only works when you are preaching to the converted, or at least to the receptive. In 1915-16, Americans, in the street or in Congress, weren't even close to that, and TR (whose letters show that he was well aware of this mood) was far too smart to invite a snub by calling for a war resolution which he knew wouldn't pass.

I could've sworn there WAS some movement for "justice" (i.e., war) in the wake of the Lusitania, IOTL...

Even Cabot Lodge spoke only of "upholding rights of neutrals", and wasn't yet ready to advocate war openly.

You do know that TR and Cabot Lodge were really close, in real life, right?