How many immigrants would you have expected America to get if it kept its borders open until 60s

So, the US passed a few acts to curb European immigration in the early 1900s culminating in a very strict quota system. If this were somehow avoided until the 1960s as it was in much of Latin America, how many people would the US likely take in on net?

How many Holocaust victims would could be realistically spared?

Eastern and later Central Europeans spared from Communist murders and famines?

And how different can the US demographic outlook be?
 
The US would have save millions people, the demographic change that people say is coming by 2040 would be coming much sooner. The US would have a lot more Asians, especially Chinese, and later Koreans that would have fled to the US. Hispanics would be generally where they are now and Africans would be the same. Asians might actually be close to Hispanics in population.
 
So, the US passed a few acts to curb European immigration in the early 1900s culminating in a very strict quota system. If this were somehow avoided until the 1960s as it was in much of Latin America, how many people would the US likely take in on net?

How many Holocaust victims would could be realistically spared?

In response to another thread on this, between 1880 and 1925 the US took in nearly 3 million jews primarily from eastern Europe, in the 1930's that dropped to around 21,000.

So the US could have easily seen another 3 million+ jews come over between 1925 and 1945 if not for the restrictions.
 
In response to another thread on this, between 1880 and 1925 the US took in nearly 3 million jews primarily from eastern Europe, in the 1930's that dropped to around 21,000.

So the US could have easily seen another 3 million+ jews come over between 1925 and 1945 if not for the restrictions.

Unlikely. Before WW I, Jewish immigration was predominantly from the Russian Empire, which was notoriously anti-semitic. By the 1920s, the Empire had been overthrown, and the Bolshevik regime that replaced it abolished all discrimination against Jews. Many of its top leaders were Jews - for instance Trotsky, Kamenev, and Zinoviev, three of the seven members of the first Politburo, were all Jews, as was Yagoda, head of the Cheka 1934-1938. So the largest bloc of European Jewry lost its incentive to emigrate. Another large block was in Poland, which had previously been Russian; also the Baltic states and Bessarabia. Antisemitism remained; but overall, conditions improved a lot.

(Please note: this is not a repetition of the paranoid claim that Soviet Communism was a "Jewish conspiracy". Jews were eager participants in revolutionary movements against the oppressive and backwards Imperial government, and as in many other fields, were disproportionately prominent - particularly since the old regime was especially nasty to Jews. The new regime was open to Jewish participation in many previously restricted fields, and lots of able Jews rose to the top.)
 
Unlikely. Before WW I, Jewish immigration was predominantly from the Russian Empire, which was notoriously anti-semitic. By the 1920s, the Empire had been overthrown, and the Bolshevik regime that replaced it abolished all discrimination against Jews. Many of its top leaders were Jews - for instance Trotsky, Kamenev, and Zinoviev, three of the seven members of the first Politburo, were all Jews, as was Yagoda, head of the Cheka 1934-1938. So the largest bloc of European Jewry lost its incentive to emigrate. Another large block was in Poland, which had previously been Russian; also the Baltic states and Bessarabia. Antisemitism remained; but overall, conditions improved a lot.

(Please note: this is not a repetition of the paranoid claim that Soviet Communism was a "Jewish conspiracy". Jews were eager participants in revolutionary movements against the oppressive and backwards Imperial government, and as in many other fields, were disproportionately prominent - particularly since the old regime was especially nasty to Jews. The new regime was open to Jewish participation in many previously restricted fields, and lots of able Jews rose to the top.)

That's a simplistic view with regards to whether Jews in 1930's Europe did want to leave en-masse. As soon as you had the Nazi's rise to power there were many Jews looking to flee Europe and certainly into the prelude to the war you would have had Hitler actively encourage Jews to do so. Not to mention the vast majority of Russian Jews not in positions of political power still had to deal with the centuries of ingrained anti-semitism lingering in the Russian sphere.

I can't speculate on the concrete numbers but you certainly would have magnitudes more Jews enter the US throughout the 30's and 40's than IOTL if not for the restrictions.
 

MERRICA

Banned
I think there would almost certainly be immigration restrictions from certain areas like Asia but European restrictions could be avoided if Calvin Coolidge took a much stronger stance for immigration.
 

raharris1973

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I think there would almost certainly be immigration restrictions from certain areas like Asia but European restrictions could be avoided if Calvin Coolidge took a much stronger stance for immigration.

I'm not sure why he would have, but yes, I generally agree with the idea that higher levels of European immigration are more plausible than higher levels of Asian immigration.

---Regarding East European immigration, I'm not sure how much the Soviet regime restricted emigration during the NEP. On the other hand, I'm not sure if White Russian refugees looking to get into America were held at the gates either.

Jews tended more than other Europeans (like Italians and Greeks) to make emigration to America a one-way trip.

Even if Soviet Jews are either uninterested or unable to emigrate to a US with more open immigration laws in the 1920s and 1930s, more Jews in countries like Poland, the Baltics and Romania would probably continue prior chain migrations and get out of dodge if WWII happens.

As soon as you had the Nazi's rise to power there were many Jews looking to flee Europe

Many were seeking to flee Europe, but most were seeking to flee individual countries where they were having trouble, so for many, going to Netherlands, Belgium or Switzerland and seeing if things took a turn for the better at home were favored options for many German Jews over committing to go across the Atlantic. 1930s Europeans after all, even if they anticipated the situation would become fatal for Jews in Germany, did not know Germany would occupy all of Europe in about 2 years flat.

-----Also, thinking of the impact, some of the big impacts of open immigration in the 40s and 50s could be a bigger deal than in prior decades. This could be to Europe's detriment. If there's a WWII, a lot more people might have taken an option to try their luck in America rather than stay and rebuild in their home countries.
 
That's a simplistic view with regards to whether Jews in 1930's Europe did want to leave en-masse. As soon as you had the Nazi's rise to power there were many Jews looking to flee Europe...

No, there was a relatively small number of Jews looking to flee Germany. (Also a very small number looking to flee Italy, but later, as Italy did not enact anti-Jewish racial laws until after allying with Germany in 1936.) Some went to the U.S., but most went only to other parts of Europe. E.g. the family of Solomon Perel, protagonist of the docudrama film Europa, Europa. They left Germany after Kristallnacht - for Poland. And note that they didn't choose to leave in 1933, i.e. "As soon as you had the Nazi's rise to power..." Few Jews realized what Nazi rule would lead to. Most thought it would be like many historical episodes of anti-semitic frenzy: a few years of beatings, vandalism, occasional murders, confiscations, legal discrimination - a storm that could be ridden out. And that was within Germany. Even fewer non-German Jews perceived a danger that justified abandoning one's ancestral home for a distant country.

and certainly into the prelude to the war you would have had Hitler actively encourage Jews to do so.

But that only affected German Jews (and Austrian and Czechian Jews, to be sure, though only in in 1938-1939). Most of them did in fact emigrate before the war. This group amounted to about 500,000-700,000, and of those that emigrated, only a fraction even tried to go to the US.

Not to mention the vast majority of Russian Jews not in positions of political power still had to deal with the centuries of ingrained anti-semitism lingering in the Russian sphere.

In terms of anti-semitism in Russia, the 1920s and 1930s were a period of enormous progress. All discriminatory laws were revoked. Jews were free to participate in every sphere - arts, industry, science, the army, the academies and professions - without restriction. They were free to reside in any part of the country. Residual anti-semitic prejudice persisted, but its real comeback was much later - in the 1950s and 1960s. (And even then, it was sub rosa - a far cry from the Tsarist era, when the Black Hundreds ran wild and the Protocols were disseminated by the state.) There certainly was nothing in the 20s and 30s to cause millions of Jews to emigrate.

I can't speculate on the concrete numbers but you certainly would have magnitudes more Jews enter the US throughout the 30's and 40's than IOTL if not for the restrictions.

Immigration of all sorts declined precipitously in 1929-1933, and remained very low till after WW II, when it rebounded to merely "low". This decline happened well after the restrictive laws were passed in the mid-1920s. Those laws substantially reduced immigration, but it was the Depression which choked it off almost completely. I do not know how many Jews immigrated to the US in 1930-1949, but 10x or 100x ("magnitudes") is highly unrealistic.
 
The US would have save millions people, the demographic change that people say is coming by 2040 would be coming much sooner. The US would have a lot more Asians, especially Chinese, and later Koreans that would have fled to the US. Hispanics would be generally where they are now and Africans would be the same. Asians might actually be close to Hispanics in population.

The Immigration Act of 1924 basically halted Asian immigration, but even before then, there were fairly strict limits on the number of Asians allowed to immigrate. I think it is unrealistic to expect that this would not have continued given the times, which strongly disfavored Asian immigration. What you could realistically expect, assuming no 1924 Act and a continuation of policies in force prior to then, would be a large amount of continued immigration from Southern and Eastern Europe, probably sufficient to materially reduce the death toll of the Holocaust. In fact, Nazi policy could well have been to subsidize Jewish emigration to the United States by providing some amount of money for resettlement plus providing passage. The problem, of course, is that such a mass dumping of people into the US may have prompted a policy revision. The US of the 1930s/40s was not without its own issues with anti-Semitism, as we all know.
 

raharris1973

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The Immigration Act of 1924 basically halted Asian immigration, but even before then, there were fairly strict limits on the number of Asians allowed to immigrate. I think it is unrealistic to expect that this would not have continued given the times, which strongly disfavored Asian immigration. What you could realistically expect, assuming no 1924 Act and a continuation of policies in force prior to then, would be a large amount of continued immigration from Southern and Eastern Europe, probably sufficient to materially reduce the death toll of the Holocaust. In fact, Nazi policy could well have been to subsidize Jewish emigration to the United States by providing some amount of money for resettlement plus providing passage. The problem, of course, is that such a mass dumping of people into the US may have prompted a policy revision. The US of the 1930s/40s was not without its own issues with anti-Semitism, as we all know.


Most realistically, it means the 20s continue as a decade of high-immigration to the US. Much then depends on how this effects the timing of the Great Depression. Once the Great Depression kicks in, immigration restrictions will too, and people will be less mobile when the economy slows down and the US becomes a less attractive destination. So, if we get the Great Depression on time, this means about 6 more years of high immigration through early 1930.

If high immigration 1924-1929 somehow delays the Great Depression, high immigration can continue a few years beyond that. It can either cancel or delay Hitler's rise to power. If high immigration accelerates the oncoming depression, bringing it about in 26 or 27 or 28, immigration takes a sharp downward turn then. Political extremism may rise earlier in Europe in that case too.
 
If the US was able to pull in, say, 40 million extra on net by keeping borders open to Europe for 40 more years (until the 64 immigration act, which would be butterflied away but hand waving it in to give the US otherwise similar demographics), and those extra 40 million made for an extra ~160 million people by today, might New York be considered more widely to be the greatest city in the world? And can Chicago and LA, provided they both get an extra five million in their Metros, enter the "New York, Paris, London, Tokyo" conversation with NY being removed from it?
 
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