How many forces would the Germans have needed in France to defeat Overlord?

[thaddeus]

Ive never gamed or seen gamed this question with increased German forces. Have tackled it with decreased Allied forces, which is a back door way of looking at the proposition here. In general a careful Allied player can make a significantly smaller Overlord invasion stick. One just needs to have smaller strategic expectations and act accordingly. Where the success lay was in the multi axis approach represented by Operations ANVIL, DIADEM, BAGRATION, DRAGOON, ECT... raw numbers helped the defense less than one might think. Its like a heavy weight boxer instead of a middleweight. Repeated blows still hurt even if none are a individual knockout.

I've always wondered about the effects of an actual "failed" Operation Shingle (Anzio), in which they have to withdraw or are simply stalled there past June? (will confess a certain ignorance about the use of landing craft? the Allies had minimal loss of such on the initial Anzio landings but did they have to use them supplying the beachhead there as the ships were kept far ashore due to bombing attacks with the guided munitions?)

the LW had been successful attacking Bari just months before, have always speculated that Operation Steinbock could have been reoriented towards Italy, especially after the Anzio landings, and spoil the Allied schedule, as they had intended to do in Tunisia?

of course if Germany had embraced the mini-submarine concept (as Italy and Japan had) or developed the smaller Elektroboote first (transportable overland), the Allies would have been facing those rather than the futile Neger attacks they did historically.

 

[Reggieperrin]

Holding from 1940 would make a difference.

However, assuming a POD in 1944, with alternatives to Overlord being considered, an attack on Norway is a bit of a dead-end.

I completely agree, that was just a bit of a digression onwards from considering how little impact the Norwegian garrison would have if the Germans decided to use them elsewhere.
And Norway wasn’t a bit of a dead end by 1944, it was a whole of a dead end. The fact Churchill was mustard keen on invading the place is a very good indicator it was about as relevant as Wyoming to the defeat of Germany.

 

[Juan de Mariana]

I've always wondered about the effects of an actual "failed" Operation Shingle (Anzio), in which they have to withdraw or are simply stalled there past June? (will confess a certain ignorance about the use of landing craft? the Allies had minimal loss of such on the initial Anzio landings but did they have to use them supplying the beachhead there as the ships were kept far ashore due to bombing attacks with the guided munitions?)

the LW had been successful attacking Bari just months before, have always speculated that Operation Steinbock could have been reoriented towards Italy, especially after the Anzio landings, and spoil the Allied schedule, as they had intended to do in Tunisia?

of course if Germany had embraced the mini-submarine concept (as Italy and Japan had) or developed the smaller Elektroboote first (transportable overland), the Allies would have been facing those rather than the futile Neger attacks they did historically.

I know that is off topic, but would it have been possible to make the Wallies withdraw from Anzio?

 

[thaddeus]

I know that is off topic, but would it have been possible to make the Wallies withdraw from Anzio?

was trying to make the point the Allies were stalled there, not sure if it was an even worse scenario if that might stall the D-Day plans in turn?

if the aircraft lost over UK for Steinbock were lost over Anzio further bombarding the Allies, the LW is not any worse off but unknown if the Allies would actually withdraw?

my guess would be it could cause Dragoon in S.France to be delayed instead of D-Day as Italy requires more forces, and the Allies cling to Anzio unable to breakout until the Germans forced to withdraw north.

 

[Post]

And Norway wasn’t a bit of a dead end by 1944, it was a whole of a dead end. The fact Churchill was mustard keen on invading the place is a very good indicator it was about as relevant as Wyoming to the defeat of Germany.

If Norway was in allied hands in 1940 it could have a major impact on the Battle of the Atlantic and certainly would have a major impact on the convoys to Murmansk.

 

[Juan de Mariana]

was trying to make the point the Allies were stalled there, not sure if it was an even worse scenario if that might stall the D-Day plans in turn?

if the aircraft lost over UK for Steinbock were lost over Anzio further bombarding the Allies, the LW is not any worse off but unknown if the Allies would actually withdraw?

my guess would be it could cause Dragoon in S.France to be delayed instead of D-Day as Italy requires more forces, and the Allies cling to Anzio unable to breakout until the Germans forced to withdraw north.

It would be good to know the opinión of the experts of the Forum about that. I am pretty ignorant about military matters.

 

[TerenceofGod]

It was less a problem of number of forces, but where to put them. If the Germans can accurately determine which beaches or ports the Wallies will try to invade from they can probably keep delaying D-Day.

The Wallies needed the Germans to be reactive to their invasion not proactive, the initiative must be with the Wallies from the beginning or not at all. The massive counter-intelligence effort put forth by the Wallies kept the German guessing where the invasion was going to land.

As everybody said here the landing was either going to succeed or get delayed, because if they were repelled it would be another 3-4 months of planning, if pushed back into the sea after initial successes it would take another 1-3 years to prepare another sizeable invasion. The probable losses in war material for outcome 2 would make Dunkirk seem trivial by comparison.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

was trying to make the point the Allies were stalled there, not sure if it was an even worse scenario if that might stall the D-Day plans in turn?

if the aircraft lost over UK for Steinbock were lost over Anzio further bombarding the Allies, the LW is not any worse off but unknown if the Allies would actually withdraw?

my guess would be it could cause Dragoon in S.France to be delayed instead of D-Day as Italy requires more forces, and the Allies cling to Anzio unable to breakout until the Germans forced to withdraw north.

A quick check indicates 393 bombers with the groups assigned to Op STEINBOK. For perspective the Allies had approx 500 bombers on Corsica alone in January 1944. From Sardinia south across Sicilly,Italy & Africa the Allies had another 1500+ bombers. More important they could ship in replacements of air craft and aircrew faster than they ordinarily lost them. The Germans could not sustain any significant losses. This is one of the reasons why they could not translate tactical successes like the Bari raid, or the attacks on the invasion fleet at the start of Op HUSKY into sustained operational of strategic success. Each air offensive ended when the threat of running out of aircraft and aircrew quickly emerged. Look at the numbers for mission and sortie losses for the historical STEINBOK operation. A look at actual bomb hits on the targets is useful here as well.

Unlike the German air force the Allies could achieve operational success with air offensives because they could provide the replacements to keep them going for weeks or months. The Transportation Offensive over north west France & Op STRANGLE in Italy during the spring of 1944 were not won in a few days. It took weeks of sustained effort to get results.

 

[Pauh the federalist]

As others have said your best chance of stopping overlord is on the beaches, your last chance is is before they break out of Normandy, once they are beyond Normandy its all over because you cant attempt to even bottle up the allied forces.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

was trying to make the point the Allies were stalled there, not sure if it was an even worse scenario if that might stall the D-Day plans in turn?

if the aircraft lost over UK for Steinbock were lost over Anzio further bombarding the Allies, the LW is not any worse off but unknown if the Allies would actually withdraw?

my guess would be it could cause Dragoon in S.France to be delayed instead of D-Day as Italy requires more forces, and the Allies cling to Anzio unable to breakout until the Germans forced to withdraw north.

Op DRAGOON as a subset of Op OVERLORD had absolute priority over operations in Italy. Wilson & Alexander understood this, and understood that Eisenhowers 'requirements' trumped anything they planned. The Joint Chiefs made that clear December 1943 when the date for OVERLORD was set & Ike appointed commander. WGF Jackson titled a chapter 'The Tyranny of Overlord' in his 'The Battle For Italy. Which I think sums it up. That Lt Gen Devers was dual hatted as Alexanders deputy, and as the commander of the 6th Army Group and responsible for seeing Op DRAGOON through was additional insurance. With direct access to Alexanders staff and inventory not much could be concealed & the Joint Chiefs were willing to answer Devers complaints.

As far as forces go, DRAGOON was executed with amphib lift returned from the UK during June & July after Op NEPTUNE WAS executed. If any US ground forces in Italy became unavailable they could be made up by reassigning the French units uncommitted to Italy, and redirecting a few of the reinforcements from the US destined for the UK. Patch might miss the three veteran US divisions. but the French 1st Army was highly motivated and may have done even better.

 

[Coulsdon Eagle]

As others have said your best chance of stopping overlord is on the beaches, your last chance is is before they break out of Normandy, once they are beyond Normandy its all over because you cant attempt to even bottle up the allied forces.

If the Allies can reinforce over the beaches & mulberries faster than the Heer can be maintained over interdicted French rail lines, the chance of defeating Overlord evaporates. By stopping Overlord at the beaches, or denying the Allies a hinterland to build up forces, the space to deploy these forces is denied while German forces would grow relatively faster.