How Many Countries Could The Soviet Union Have Broken Up Into?

Discussion in 'Alternate History Discussion: After 1900' started by theReturner, Oct 28, 2010.

  1. theReturner Well-Known Member

    Oct 17, 2009
    Their are now 15 countries that were once part of the Soviet Union, including Russia. My question is, what is the maximum number of countries the Soviet Union could have broken into fallowing the end of the Cold War?
  2. The Dude Banned

    Aug 21, 2010
    Washington, D.C
    Well, each country would have to have enough room to store one person, so take the population of the Soviet Union at the time of breakup, and...

    Oh, wait, you wanted a realistic answer! Well, that requires a bit more research...
  3. black angel Gay-Jew

    Jan 24, 2006
  4. IchBinDieKaiser Casual Historian

    Jul 22, 2008
    Well, you could have each of Russia's autonomous republics become independent.
  5. Whanztastic BohemianAmerican Defenestrater

    Apr 13, 2009
    Ft. Dearborn
    42 (Filler)
  6. Legosim Upstate New York Nationalist

    May 18, 2009
    American University

    A Jewish state in Siberia would have been interesting.
  7. tqm111 Banned

    Apr 6, 2010
    See: Game board from Risk.
  8. KingByng Go Team Canada!

    Aug 20, 2009
    Republic of Kanata
    Have a much more dramatic breakup of the USSR result in all the little ASSRs going independent as well as the SSRs (ignoring the fact that it was illegal for an ASSR to do so). That results in an additional 22 states, bringing to total of post-Soviet countries to 37.

    There were also eight autonomous oblasts, so if they can manage independence somehow we have nearly 50 states forming out of the wreckage of the Soviet Union. :eek:
  9. freodhoric the Ignored

    Oct 20, 2006
    Transylvania Polygnostic University
    To speculate out of almost total ignorance:
    The SSRs all go separate as does Kalinigrad, and maybe Moscow.
    (15 or 16)

    I don't think all of the ASSRs would split up, but possible. My take:
    Abkhaz ASSR
    Chechen-Ingush ASSR & Kabardino-Balkar ASSR
    Dagestan ASSR
    Nakhchivan ASSR
    Kalmyk ASSR
    Karelian ASSR (with Finland or as part of a North Russia possibly with Komi ASSR)
    Komi ASSR
    Northern Ossetian ASSR & South Ossetia
    Tatar ASSR and Bashkir ASSR
    Udmurt ASSR, Chuvash ASSR, Mari ASSR & Mordovian ASSR
    (9 or 10)

    Russia & Western SSRs would split into some combination of:
    Buryat ASSR, Tuva ASSR, Yakut ASSR, Eastern Russia, Central Russia, and/or Pacific Russia
    (2 to 6)

    Total of 26 to 32 nations.
  10. loughery111 Banned

    Apr 30, 2010
    Realistically? Most likely the OTL ones plus Dagestan, Ingushetia, Chechnya, and maybe (but not likely AT ALL) Tuva. There is also a small possibility that you could get the various bits of Ossetia split out of their current arrangements and united as an independent state. Even Tuva and Ossetia are pretty out there, though. None of these are very likely, even the big three...
  11. Stateless Well-Known Watermelon

    Dec 29, 2007
    Who's asking?
    We had a thread about this a month ago. Back then I said:

    So that gives us another 10. The Tajik Civil War could possibly have resulted in an independent Gorno-Badakhshan (but any such state would have been a mess, with its own civil war between liberal reformists and Islamists). Beyond that it would take regions which are ethnically majority Russian seceding to get extra countries, and then the sky is more or less the limit. I would guess:

    - An East Ukraine (maybe including the Crimea)
    - United North Caucasus republic
    - An independent Russian far-east
    - Kaliningrad
    - Some sort of Volga/Don region.
    - Leningrad region
    - Maybe Siberia if not part of the Russian far-east
  12. Iori ダークアビスの特使。

    Feb 8, 2009
    Id argue that Tuva is one fo the few that both could realistically do so and would.

    Tuva is one of the few Federal Subjects of Russia in which the native peoples form a large majority (64% in 1989, 77% in 2002), it has a land border with another country, it's isolated from the rest of Russia (and thus hard to get to) and actually had the will to do it (the Tyvan constitution is more similar to an independent states than a Federal subject).
  13. Stateless Well-Known Watermelon

    Dec 29, 2007
    Who's asking?
    Maybe possible in 1991, especially if there's a massive collapse of Russia and its economy (more massive than OTL): Tuva does (and did) rely heavily on the Russian government for about 90% of its income, so you'd need a situation where Russia and its economy collapses too much to support the Tuvans.
  14. Strategos' Risk Oriental Orientalist

    Mar 10, 2004
    Okay, so about new post-Soviet nations in 1991: I love all of these suggestions, but it looks like we get lists of countries but end up not really getting anywhere with it. Now, could we do something like we examine each of these proposed alternate nations (or at least the major ones) and think of what could have caused them to become independent? Why didn't any ASSRs become independent in OTL?

    Let's start with an easier one: what could have led Karelia to have become independent in 1991?
  15. Grey Wolf Writer, Poet, Publisher, Cat-sitter

    Jan 1, 2004
    Deepest Wales
    The obvious reason it didn't happen is because Chechnya tried - if they had been allowed to get away with it, others would have followed (Tatars, Dagestan etc) but as the Russians stomped on Chechnya it dispirited the idea

    Best Regards
    Grey Wolf
  16. yourworstnightmare Trubbelmakare

    Jul 4, 2007
    Tusen Sjöars Land
    Exactly as many as OTL: 15 (+2 that secede from Georgia with Russian help, but are not recognized by others).
  17. Grimm Reaper Desperate But Not Serious

    There were jokes in one columnist's future history involving a republic of north central I recall it also mentioned new nuclear powers like Barbados and Rush Limbaugh.:D