How many countries are possible in the Americas?

Actually in Central America and in Spanish South America splintering is already at almost maximum levels except for maybe splitting outstate Argentina from Buenos Aries and vicinity. Fewer states instead of more would be more likely given some butterflies. Splintering Brazil is difficult without multiple colonial powers dividing it pre-independence. Although a Federal State it makes sense as a coherent whole. Mexico, with its federalism vs centralism history, could reasonably split into the Yucatan, Mexico, a state based on Monterrey, and a northwestern desert state. However, there are infinite possibilities for additional splits north of the Rio Grande depending on the POD. Having the entire extent of America north of the Rio Grande consolidated into only 2 states is the unlikely outcome. A more divided North America could happen with a closer balance of indigenous vs colonial states, more diverse lasting colonization of the continent by multiple powers, or the collapse of Anglophone NA into multiple geographic entities (say like the 9 Nations on NA trope, although those divisions only make sense culturally, not as the basis for actual countries).

Brazil had Grao Para and Rio Grande do Sul. There might be other conceivable divisions for Brazil, if it gained independence in as violent (or more?) circumstance as Spanish America. Central America could still have Los Altos, another breakaway republic, as well as the Miskito Coast and the Bay Islands as I mentioned, both of which would be more Caribbean in culture like Belize. Anglophone North America has too many chances to stay coherent--you'd need some way to get more colonisers, i.e., France doing it the British way or something. Older PODs of course allow for more diversity.

Indigenous states seems very cliche. North of Mesoamerica, I don't reasonably see any indigenous states able to survive that could honestly be called an indigenous state without butterflying away Euro colonialism or at least strongly limiting it. I think the examples of Hawaii and Fiji show what the logical result might be, even if it is preferable than OTL. That goes x1000 for any Plains Indian nation, which are pretty much anarchistic by culture and any attempt to make them into a western nation would pretty much result in their self-destruction and conquest. Unless anarchist "states" become huge in the Americas.
 
Splintering Brazil is difficult without multiple colonial powers dividing it pre-independence.

Not really. The organization of Brazil was very similar to the Spanish viceroyalties, with very autonomous provinces (called captaincies) and sense of unity, it was the Portuguese court moving there that established the idea of a single unit composing the Portuguese America, even then there were many attempts at independence after the independence (Rio Grande do Sul, Grão-Pará and some Northeastern provinces, Bahia had pro-Portuguese elements that resisted independence).
 
I'd need more research for the north of south America.

Makes sense to have a state around the basin of the river Amazonas. I see that your POD is after 1600.

About Brazil:

The state of Paraná was part of São Paulo until 1853, so it should be part of the Brazilian Empire. The the western part of the state that lies south of the River Iguaçu is in the same situation as the western part of Santa Catarina.

The state of Santa Cantarina could be its own country, part of Brazil or part of Rio Grande do Sul. The western part of the state could be divided or go with the rest of Santa Catarina, those borders were defined only in April of 1916.

Map of Brazil in 1822

The western part of Brazil can, but probably will not unite in one independent state, it is more probable that it will go to another country or be divided.

Brazilian Northeast can be divided more I think, it was the center of Brazilian development before gold was discovered in the 18th century.
 

IFwanderer

Banned
Thanks for the feedback and the links. Regarding the POD, I'm thinking of having a kind of "patchwork" of minor changes instead of a single POD.
 
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