How lucky can the allies get in the early stages of the pacific war

Proved [sic] is a strong word. Wikipedia says Indomitable couldn't have made it as she was off Jamaica on Nov 3rd.

However, according to https://sea-distances.org/ at 20 knots, Jamaica to Singapore via Cape of Good Hope is 24 days 17 hours. Now it is 11860 nautical miles, so Indomitable will need to take a day or two to refuel in South Africa or Ceylon, so let's make it 28-30 days. Indomitable thus arrives at Singapore on Dec. 3rd. - Just in time for this thread's lucky time for the RN starting Dec 6th.

However, since the good luck doesn't start until Dec 6th, Indomitable still hits her sand bar, and thus can't make it.


That's true, but I think, since it was just commissioned on October 10, there was to be a 3-week working up period at Jamaica. If this continued as planned, then it would be too late to get to Singapore.
 

GarethC

Donor
Lucky... okay, so straining the bounds of probability...

A change of chef at Raffles results in Percival and Shenton Thomas getting food poisoning and being invalided back to Blighty in 1940. Brooke-Popham succeeds the latter. After a particularly scathing remark causes offence at Horse Guards' , Bernard Montgomery is banished to the backwater of GOC Malaya.

HMS Formidable avoids a rock.

After being fired from Raffles, the wayward cook ends up a club in Manila, where his fondness for inappropriate fungi strikes down MacArthrur and his chief of staff.

When the war warning is issued, Kimmel and Short ask Layton and Rochefort where Kido Butai is, are told "we don't know", and, worried, have a think about Taranto and Port Arthur.

Short establishes permanent phone lines between the radar stations and the air control room, and conducts daily small-scale air intercept exercises with a large one on Dec 4th.

Britain invades Thailand in early December.

The Kota Bharu landings are struck by the RAF, and several transports are sunk still mostly-loaded.

While not going to a full wartime patrol schedule, on Sunday morning the PBYs range out looking for Nagumo, and the pursuit squadrons muster at dawn. While the Catalinas don't find him, they find Fuchida's airstrike. With the warning of the doomed PBY received, the radar stations are manned and not confused about B-17s, and the Pearl attack is not successful - the first wave is mauled and the second aborts. There are no blue-on-blue incidents with B-17s or planes from Enterprise.

Brererton launches an early-morning air attack on the Japanese airfields on Formosa. The fog that has shrouded the airfields all morning just burns off as the B-17s make their final turns, and most IJA bombers on the island are still taxiing, fully loaded, when the bombs start going off. In 5 minutes more than half the IJA bomber strength is destroyed still on the ground.

The remainder of the G3M force gets into the air and trails the B-17s back to Manila. However, they are intercepted by three pursuit squadrons and take terrible losses, though they do damage Clark field and a number of re-arming B-17s are lost.

The US Army in the Philippines begins its planned withdrawal to the Bataan redoubt.

The Indian Army forces in Thailand begin their withdrawal in good order under pressure from the IJA 5th Division.

The US Navy sends a relief convoy to Wake Island, including one of General Short's precious mobile radar stations.

Action off Kuantan - Aerial reconnaissance from Force Z identifies that there are no transports unloading; however, Admiral Ozawa's covering force is spotted, and Force Z turns into the wind. The Albacores strike at night - Haruna and a cruiser are hit, though not mortally, and Ozawa sends them northwest. The covering force remains at alert for more air attacks, but is completely surprised when Kongo is straddled by Prince of Wales's first salvo. In the morning, Phillips has withdrawn south, and between Formidable's fighters and the RAAF, fends off the air attacks; Ozawa has lost two cruisers and a battleship with a third cruiser and second battleship slowly headed for Cam Ranh Bay with aerial torpedo damage.

Battle of Jitra - lacking support from the delayed 5th Division, the IJA forces are stopped at Jitra by the completed network of bunkers, trenches, and anti-tank obstacles. A second infantry advance in appalling rain leads to hand-to-hand combat with the 11th Indian division. Colonel Murray-Lyon is awarded the MC - while rallying the HQ unit when IJA troops appeared out of the rain, he duelled an IJA officer with his dress sword, receiving a wound before killing his opponent and leading a counter-charge.

First Naval Battle of Wake Island - the USN convoy is unloaded and the SCR-70 is running when it picks up an airstrike from due West. The reinforced Marine detachment takes off as Wake transmits the details of the attack. Even before the opposing forces had merged, Scouting Six off Enterprise was getting airborne to hunt for a carrier force that could be its origin as Halsey ordered an air strike armed, fuelled, and spotted despite the risk should Saratoga and Enterprise come under air attack. Facilities on the island are damaged, but the majority of fixed defences are still functional. An Enterprise SBD spots Hiryu and the USN launches its first carrier strike of the war, which arrives as the last attackers are being struck below. The two torpedo squadrons and the mix of Buffalo and Wildcat escorts are met by the CAP - no torpedo hits are scored, but Hiryu takes three bomb hits and Soryu two - neither is able to conduct flight operations and both retreat to the northwest. The IJN force withdraws, but not before Fletcher is able to land a second strike at the invasion force, sinking a destroyer and a transport, with the loss of several hundred soldiers.

I'm running out of steam here, but basically Yamashita is stopped in Northern Malaya and the Coral Sea - Midway - Eastern Solomons carrier battles happen around Wake and the counterinvasion of Guam without ever getting as far as Lae & Salamua, and the US wins them all. Singapore never falls and its land-based air makes the DEI campaign a long-drawn out stalemate (and gives ABDACOM a victory in the Java Sea when Phillips challenges one force).

Allied submarines, retaining forward basing in Malaya and the DEI reveal the US torpedo problem by New Year. Japanese operations in Malaya are continually hamstrung by the inability to regularly get supplies either past the submarine cordon or down the single rail line in Thailand and the follow-up thrust into Burma is stopped at the Sittang River. Burma and Malaya then stop in the monsoon.

At this point we are so butterflied that the crystal ball becomes foggy - the US, regardless of luck, really isn't going forward with an ur-Watchtower before August anyway, though the UK might just be able to get tanks enough into Singapore to head north when the rains ease off if their Malayan contingent doesn't surrender.

The night-surface actions are not in the Solomons but in the South China Sea, and they go worse for the IJN against the night-ops trained and Med-experienced RN if they don't just get wiped out as OTL.
 
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That's true, but I think, since it was just commissioned on October 10, there was to be a 3-week working up period at Jamaica. If this continued as planned, then it would be too late to get to Singapore.
It's too bad PoW and Repulse didn't train alongside Indomitable during her working up period.
 
It's too bad PoW and Repulse didn't train alongside Indomitable during her working up period.
IIRC Pound wanted to assemble the Eastern Fleet at Ceylon and then move it to Singapore. Perhaps Pound and Phillips could have contrived an excuse to delay their arrival at Singapore so that they were still at Trincomalee or even Durban on 6th December 1941. E.g. pretend that they had machinery trouble.
 
IIRC Pound wanted to assemble the Eastern Fleet at Ceylon and then move it to Singapore. Perhaps Pound and Phillips could have contrived an excuse to delay their arrival at Singapore so that they were still at Trincomalee or even Durban on 6th December 1941. E.g. pretend that they had machinery trouble.
It would have also been a perfect opportunity to bring some Martlets or other fighters for Hermes. Throw in a couple of Dido AA-cruisers and you've got something credible sitting at Ceylon when Pearl Harbour occurs.
 
Would Courageous have survived if one of the torpedoes that hit her had been a dud? Given the unreliability of German torpedoes at the time that might be plausible.

It's been proved that Indomitable could not have made it to Singapore in time to join Force Z even if she hadn't run aground. Neither would Illustrious and Formidable had they not collided with each other on their post refit trials after being badly damaged by the Luftwaffe in the Mediterranean.

Keeping Formidable, Illustrious, Queen Elizabeth, Valiant and Warspite damage free in 1941 is a lot to ask. Except if we combine this thread with the Allies Hold Crete thread. That won't stop Illustrious being badly damaged off Malta in January 1941, but it might prevent the others.

I also think it was poor damage control that sank Ark Royal. Otherwise I think she would have made it to Gibraltar and been patched up. I don't believe that she would have been sent to the Pacific, but instead been kept at Gibraltar, but it might mean that Wasp was sent to the Pacific up to 6 months earlier. If not I think Ark Royal and Wasp would have flown Spitfires off to Malta in the first half of 1942 instead of Eagle and Wasp. The Ark with her higher maximum speed and longer flight deck would have done the job much better than Eagle so fewer Spitfires would have crashed on take-off and fewer might have run out of fuel before they reached Malta. Ark Royal would have taken the place of Indomitable in Operation Pedestal. Indomitable either remains in the Eastern Fleet or goes to the Mediterranean Fleet to cover a complimentary convoy run from Alexandria to Malta.

IMHO Churchill threw Prince of Wales and Repulse away. They should have remained at Ceylon until reinforcements arrived, which IIRC is what the Admiralty wanted to do. In that case I think the 4 Resolution class should have been sent to Alexandria leaving Somerville with a fast Eastern Fleet built around Formidable, Illustrious, Indomitable, Prince of Wales, Repulse and Warspite.

Courageous surviving her Torpedoing opens up a lot of possibilities - for example - an extra fleet carrier is available and the losses suffered were keenly felt among the then relatively small number fleet air arm personnel - in fact the order that lead to the premature abandonment of Ark Royal was directly attributed to the speed with which Courageous capsized taking so many of her crew with her.

However my biggest POD for fewer losses in the Med is as I mentioned a more ambitious Taranto raid which involved Ark Royal - adding 26 additional Swordfish and 10 + Skuas so that with more torpedo carrying aircraft the attack wrecks both modern Italian BBs with multiple hits effectively taking them out of the war as well as heavy damage to the other refitted battleships and 3 Heavy Crusiers. This gives the RN 6 odd months grace with regards to the threat of the RM sortieing in force to prevent any convoys from reaching Malta.

OTL with 1 Modern and 1 refitted BB available the RM remained a threat and Convoys to Malta would have to be attempted only with a heavy covering force.

Take this requirement away and far more men supplies aircraft and equipment can be sent to Malta earlier with far less risk for the RM very likely resulting in Sub Flot 10 and Force K being more effective earlier (all by April 41) along with the RAF being far more able to both defend the Island and interdict Axis convoys.

This in turn has a major impact on ops in North Africa with the DAK and Italian 10th Army unable to build up / rebuild as fast and giving Wavell more time and breathing space as it would effectively butterfly Operation Sonnenblume and make the Subsequent Op Crusader (which would have a jump off point somewhere in the region of Al Agheila) that much more successful and likely bring about a much earlier Victory for the Allies in North Africa.

Ultimately this frees up Naval assets and exposes them to a lower risk vs OTL meaning more Capital ships, Carriers, Crusiers and DDs not damaged or sunk in TTL.
 
Courageous surviving her Torpedoing opens up a lot of possibilities - for example - an extra fleet carrier is available and the losses suffered were keenly felt among the then relatively small number fleet air arm personnel - in fact the order that lead to the premature abandonment of Ark Royal was directly attributed to the speed with which Courageous capsized taking so many of her crew with her.

However my biggest POD for fewer losses in the Med is as I mentioned a more ambitious Taranto raid which involved Ark Royal - adding 26 additional Swordfish and 10 + Skuas so that with more torpedo carrying aircraft the attack wrecks both modern Italian BBs with multiple hits effectively taking them out of the war as well as heavy damage to the other refitted battleships and 3 Heavy Crusiers. This gives the RN 6 odd months grace with regards to the threat of the RM sortieing in force to prevent any convoys from reaching Malta.

OTL with 1 Modern and 1 refitted BB available the RM remained a threat and Convoys to Malta would have to be attempted only with a heavy covering force.

Take this requirement away and far more men supplies aircraft and equipment can be sent to Malta earlier with far less risk for the RM very likely resulting in Sub Flot 10 and Force K being more effective earlier (all by April 41) along with the RAF being far more able to both defend the Island and interdict Axis convoys.

This in turn has a major impact on ops in North Africa with the DAK and Italian 10th Army unable to build up / rebuild as fast and giving Wavell more time and breathing space as it would effectively butterfly Operation Sonnenblume and make the Subsequent Op Crusader (which would have a jump off point somewhere in the region of Al Agheila) that much more successful and likely bring about a much earlier Victory for the Allies in North Africa.

Ultimately this frees up Naval assets and exposes them to a lower risk vs OTL meaning more Capital ships, Carriers, Crusiers and DDs not damaged or sunk in TTL.
Courageous had two Swordfish squadrons aboard when she was sunk. Both of which were disbanded and a new squadron formed from the surviving personnel.

Heavier damage to the Italian fleet at Taranto is a good thing for the British in the Mediterranean. Unfortunately, most of the British ships that were sunk or damaged were victims of air attack. E.g. the aircraft carrier Illustrious damaged and the Southampton sunk off Malta by Fliegerkorps X in January 1941 and the heavy damage inflicted to the Mediterranean Fleet off Crete.
 
Courageous had two Swordfish squadrons aboard when she was sunk. Both of which were disbanded and a new squadron formed from the surviving personnel.

Heavier damage to the Italian fleet at Taranto is a good thing for the British in the Mediterranean. Unfortunately, most of the British ships that were sunk or damaged were victims of air attack. E.g. the aircraft carrier Illustrious damaged and the Southampton sunk off Malta by Fliegerkorps X in January 1941 and the heavy damage inflicted to the Mediterranean Fleet off Crete.

With the British Army in control of Cyrenaica - Hurricanes can fly the long way round and self deploy (Benghazi to Malta = 420 miles) and the Convoys not now needing to wait for heavy escorts will also enjoy greater protection from RAF fighters

Carriers which would have had to have carried a number of strike aircraft due to the threat of the RM heavy units can now reduce the number and carry more fighters and British battle groups could maneuver with less regard to the RM (several convoys were abandoned due to the threat (real or imagined) of Sortieing RM battleships).

It wouldn't save every ship lots OTL - but it would save some.
 
That's true, but I think, since it was just commissioned on October 10, there was to be a 3-week working up period at Jamaica. If this continued as planned, then it would be too late to get to Singapore.
Don't forget that PoW left to fight Bismarck with builders still on board. Indomitable could work up on her trip to Singapore, as the Durban, Ceylon and Singapore are more than capable of making any tweaks.
 
When the war warning is issued, Kimmel and Short ask Layton and Rochefort where Kido Butai is, are told "we don't know", and, worried, have a think about Taranto and Port Arthur.
LOL. Bravo. (It is a bit outside the OP's "lucky window", tho.:frown:)
Sunday morning the PBYs range out
Also outside the window, I'm afraid, & by 7 Dec, they'd been patrolling steadily for about a week (2?). You'd need Bratton not to have his brainwave a few days, so the 27 Nov message isn't sent til a bit later... Or you'd need DC to be more worried, & tell Kimmel to keep patrolling until further notice (or something).
With the warning of the doomed PBY received, the radar stations are manned and not confused about B-17s, and the Pearl attack is not successful - the first wave is mauled and the second aborts. There are no blue-on-blue incidents with B-17s or planes from Enterprise.
Ward can give you this, with an initial sighting report at 04.30. In fact, an alert that early risks the heavies having steam up & trying to sortie, & being massacred in deep water.:eek::eek:
Brererton launches an early-morning air attack on the Japanese airfields on Formosa. The fog that has shrouded the airfields all morning just burns off as the B-17s make their final turns, and most IJA bombers on the island are still taxiing, fully loaded, when the bombs start going off. In 5 minutes more than half the IJA bomber strength is destroyed still on the ground.
That's not good luck, that's poetic justice. Bravissimo.:cool::cool:
The US Navy sends a relief convoy to Wake Island, including one of General Short's precious mobile radar stations.
And a couple of squadrons of Vindicators & F3As!
Aerial reconnaissance from Force Z identifies that there are no transports unloading; however, Admiral Ozawa's covering force is spotted, and Force Z turns into the wind. The Albacores strike at night
From what carrier?
the SCR-70 is running when it picks up an airstrike from due West.
Am I mistaken shipborne radar could do just as well?
Saratoga and Enterprise
You mean Hornet, don't you? Sara was in Puget Sound.
Allied submarines, retaining forward basing in Malaya and the DEI reveal the US torpedo problem by New Year.
That's just about the worst place to operate subs in I can imagine, short of the Med.:eek::eek: And "revealling" the problem is bound to take longer; getting BuOrd to fix it :)mad:) definitely is.

And were I an S-boat sailor, the idea of working in the tropics would give me sleepless nights: Japanese aircraft everywhere, tropical heat, no air conditioning...:eek:
 
And were I an S-boat sailor, the idea of working in the tropics would give me sleepless nights: Japanese aircraft everywhere, tropical heat, no air conditioning...:eek:

Such was the lives of everyone else but the new US Fleet Boats. I think the point was made that the A/C was there for the TDC, that the crew got cooler air was secondary
 
Such was the lives of everyone else but the new US Fleet Boats. I think the point was made that the A/C was there for the TDC, that the crew got cooler air was secondary
Yeah, Hart was hostile to "comforts".:rolleyes: Forget the benefits to operational efficiency or morale.:rolleyes:
 
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