My apologies then. There's a bit of etiquette I've missed apparently. I'll have to do a refresher.
How long would Slavery Last in a Victorious Confederacy?
- Thread starter aspie3000
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My apologies then. There's a bit of etiquette I've missed apparently. I'll have to do a refresher.
Think about the political influence, the voices and the intensity of the Cuban exile community in Miami. Then multiply that by at least a hundred. Against a state which is essentially North Korea on the Southern Border. The Cubans can at least make a case for their socialism. The CSA will never make a case. It's just going to be an unalloyed turd.
Essentially North Korea? I don't think the South is going to start worshiping a President for life who ends up as a dynasty. Nor am I aware of North Korea having any minorities to enslave.
Per day... simultaneously on many sections of border. Hundreds of thousands each year in the very least.
If CSA is expelling former slaves en-masse, its only because there is already sanctions and blockade, so they cannot even sell cotton or other products that slave labour would produce, USA is smuggling in weapons to support slave rebellion, and CSA have nothing to lose by further infuriating US, if expelling all slaves at very least removes risk of rebellion.
South will, in their own minds, feel justified: "If they have it so bad here that you blockaded our country and are smuggling in weapons, then why won't you take them in?!", and won't give up just because US makes photo-shots.
North Korea in terms of being backwards, regressive, based on oppression and brutality, starving and murdering elements of its own population. Or that's how all those escaped slaves are going to be telling it.... a drumbeat that will go on in every town and city of America, ceaselessly, with endlessly updated proofs, every time someone else escapes. A crazy state turned every inwards, built upon its own isolation and arrogance. A state without a friend in the world. A pariah state.
Think about that eventual voting constituency. Think about those hundreds of thousands joining the army.
So a dysfunctioning society in its dysfunctional death throes. Kind of like Nazi Germany.
At which point white southerners supply their own cheap labour? Good luck with that.
If the Confederacy wants to export hundreds of thousands of combat age males who hate it's guts, to the one country on earth that hates the Confederacy just as much.....
I don't know, after 3 decades of co-existence (if the CSA just doesn't default on all debt and then implode from the impending collapse in cotton prices), the Northerners might end up looking at their budget line more than the fate of escaped slaves. Northern abolitionism was always weaker than their British counterparts. I can see public opinion going either way really.
You keep projecting Donald Trump's America onto the scene. Without the Confederacy, it's likely that the north would be considerably more progressive.
North Korea has some friends (China, Cuba), and some who're ambivalent enough (Russia, Vietnam) to not overlook a good deal just because its NK who offers it.
Your analogy is flawed. CSA would have enough friends to trade with, USA would have to be willing to pay the costs of maintaining naval blockade. Warships burn a lot of coal/fuel.
Keep in mind in OTL, they didn't exactly welcome labor influxes. I forgot where, but an unofficial policy off the Pacific was to let ships carrying immigrants sink, because they knew that if a group came when the quota was filled, it would have to be sent back. If in OTL American coast guard sees a ship, looks at is and is like "oh, that's immigrants" and let it sink, why wouldn't TTL North get rid of possible voting constituencies? A South winning the civil war (somehow... it's hopeless without outside help) would likely corrode the morals of the South (obviously) and the North
Who? Who would support the Confederacy? Canada? Britain? Europe? China? The freed former colonies of Africa and Asia? Latin America with their considerable minority populations? Come on. The best analogue for the Confederacy is South Africa, but more isolated.
My gosh. I would be completely impressed and grateful if you would provide a citation for that? That's the sort of thing that people would notice.
My god, I just realized we've drifted miles off the OP. I think that I'll step out of this conversation.
If someone wants to start a thread about what a hypothetical United States would do with hypothetical waves of refugees fleeing a North Korea-esque Confederacy... fine with me.
If someone wants to start a thread about what a hypothetical United States would do with hypothetical waves of refugees fleeing a North Korea-esque Confederacy... fine with me.
Anyone? Butterflies made predictions hard, but Imperial Germany, Belgium under Leopold, Japanese Empire, Russia under vodzh Savinkov. Someone will benefit from making friends with CSA, and who it is, will depend on web of alliances.
Nazi equivalent CSA would have more... Freedomite solutions.
The point is that naval blockade would render cheap labour moot, with no way to export cotton, and North fermenting dissent would render that manpower dangerous.
Very important point: all that is worst case for CSA scenario, with very aggressive USA. Most likely, North would not care that much what South does. They'll dislike them, but not to the point to go to war with great power that wouldn't respect their naval blockade.
CSA wouldn't be a great power. And if you mean Britain after OTL civil war the British bought their cotton in... Egypt.
There's primarily-agrarian Brazil, which only abolished slavery in 1888, and, even then, not without certain opposition (cue the undertone of the republican coup of 1889).
Britain and France could also give small support to the CSA behind the curtains, to prevent the Monroe Doctrine from coming back and open up the latin american markets.
No. Not great power. Local power. Eclipsed by US, but still stronger than, say, Mexico.
Who? Anyone who dislikes US would, at very least, want CSA strong enough to weaken USA. I can't tell who'll be with all the butterflies. Britain would be last to support them. Unless US invaded Canada for some reason, then UK might out of realpolitik support the CSA.
I guess a lot comes down to the time frame that this is all supposed to happen in. The United States for a large part of its history had massive demands for labour, and so you had a lot of immigration, including vast numbers of Italians, Poles, Hispanics. Blacks were a large part of the internal migration, if you read up on 'The Great Migration' over the course of a generation, there was a huge flight of black's from the South. There was an entire country to fill up. There was a robust manufacturing and export economy. So if this tactic of the Confederacy's is occurring anywhere between 1870 and the 1930, odds are that the fleeing refugee slaves will be absorbed without a ripple.
You'd probably also see a willingness to accept an influx between say 1940 and 1975 and the economic malaise that followed.
Eventually, you'd get to the Trumpland we all know and that you're living in. But that doesn't represent most of American history.