Deleted member 1487
It really depends on how a number of things play out. There are too many unknown variables to be able to tell for sure. 1917 is the last possible moment that the Central Powers would possibly start the war, though its really unlikely. The death of Franz Josef and the coronation of Franz Ferdinand happen in 1917 ITTL, which may mean that Serbia starts the war when the Hungarians and Austrians have it out over renewing the Ausgleich; its very likely to be short thanks to Austrian plans for violence (Plan U) and Serbia had started to pull away from confrontation in 1914 (unfortunately the rogue intelligence agency decided to bypass the civilian government), so they might let the moment pass, but maybe not.
After that the pressure for war is minimal. The French don't really care about Alsace except for some marginalized nationalists. The Naval Race is over. The Germans realized that by 1916 the Schlieffen Plan is defunct due to Russian rail building, so they cannot win a war, meaning they will not start one. Russia has no need to start a war with Germany and has too many internal problems that are getting worse every year. Austria is likely revitalized by Franz Ferdinand because he takes on the Hungarians, but it is still weak and won't start any wars. Italy is too weak to start anything. The Ottomans are modernizing and will be enjoying all of their oil very soon. Britain doesn't want war, its bad for business. Without Germany starting a war, there is really no one interested in doing so. Germany realizes that until technology equalizes Russian numbers they cannot do anything aggressive. The Socialists in Germany likely do better every year until they force a constitution; once that happens the government won't be able to fight an aggressive war.
If Europe can avoid war by 1918 then there will likely be no triggers after that. Unless of course new variables pop up, which they likely will.
After that the pressure for war is minimal. The French don't really care about Alsace except for some marginalized nationalists. The Naval Race is over. The Germans realized that by 1916 the Schlieffen Plan is defunct due to Russian rail building, so they cannot win a war, meaning they will not start one. Russia has no need to start a war with Germany and has too many internal problems that are getting worse every year. Austria is likely revitalized by Franz Ferdinand because he takes on the Hungarians, but it is still weak and won't start any wars. Italy is too weak to start anything. The Ottomans are modernizing and will be enjoying all of their oil very soon. Britain doesn't want war, its bad for business. Without Germany starting a war, there is really no one interested in doing so. Germany realizes that until technology equalizes Russian numbers they cannot do anything aggressive. The Socialists in Germany likely do better every year until they force a constitution; once that happens the government won't be able to fight an aggressive war.
If Europe can avoid war by 1918 then there will likely be no triggers after that. Unless of course new variables pop up, which they likely will.