How long would peace have lasted without Archduke Ferdinand's assassination?

How long would peace have lasted without Archduke Ferdinand's assassination?

  • < 1 year

    Votes: 10 6.4%
  • 1-5 years

    Votes: 76 48.7%
  • 5-10 years

    Votes: 34 21.8%
  • 10-20 years

    Votes: 4 2.6%
  • 20-50 years

    Votes: 3 1.9%
  • 50+ years

    Votes: 6 3.8%
  • Other (e.g. Numerous smaller conflicts instead of a Great War)

    Votes: 23 14.7%

  • Total voters
    156

Deleted member 1487

It really depends on how a number of things play out. There are too many unknown variables to be able to tell for sure. 1917 is the last possible moment that the Central Powers would possibly start the war, though its really unlikely. The death of Franz Josef and the coronation of Franz Ferdinand happen in 1917 ITTL, which may mean that Serbia starts the war when the Hungarians and Austrians have it out over renewing the Ausgleich; its very likely to be short thanks to Austrian plans for violence (Plan U) and Serbia had started to pull away from confrontation in 1914 (unfortunately the rogue intelligence agency decided to bypass the civilian government), so they might let the moment pass, but maybe not.

After that the pressure for war is minimal. The French don't really care about Alsace except for some marginalized nationalists. The Naval Race is over. The Germans realized that by 1916 the Schlieffen Plan is defunct due to Russian rail building, so they cannot win a war, meaning they will not start one. Russia has no need to start a war with Germany and has too many internal problems that are getting worse every year. Austria is likely revitalized by Franz Ferdinand because he takes on the Hungarians, but it is still weak and won't start any wars. Italy is too weak to start anything. The Ottomans are modernizing and will be enjoying all of their oil very soon. Britain doesn't want war, its bad for business. Without Germany starting a war, there is really no one interested in doing so. Germany realizes that until technology equalizes Russian numbers they cannot do anything aggressive. The Socialists in Germany likely do better every year until they force a constitution; once that happens the government won't be able to fight an aggressive war.

If Europe can avoid war by 1918 then there will likely be no triggers after that. Unless of course new variables pop up, which they likely will.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
This is true, in a narrow sense. None of these states used significant numbers of troops, the fighting was in a rather narrow geographical region, and in the event more technologically primitive and outgeneraled Russian troops did far better than a military analysis would lead one to expect. It was this reality and the failure of both British and French troops to ever inflict a strategic, as opposed to tactical, defeat on the Russians and war-weariness that led them to call the war quits.

...

So there was experienced of protracted war and combat between huge, firepower-dependent conscript armies. The problem was WWI was on a scale that was unimaginable beforehand, and it's this scale that was the problem for all sides.

What you say is true, and there still remains the issue of why? In the Crimean war, the French/British decided to keep it localized to the Crimea and some Baltic islands, as opposed to doing a general conscription. In WW1, Russia or Germany or France could have chosen to kept it a local war. Or in 1915 or 1916, the sides could have admitted the inability to "inflict a strategic, as opposed to tactical defeat". If both sides had been willing to give a little, a peace treaty was doable. The Crimean War was limited in 1855, and the USA/CSA raised very large conscription armies, so it was possible for France and Britain. What changed between the 1855 to 1870 time period compared to 1914?
 
I went with the last option, as said above by 1916/17 France and Russia would have been too strong for Germany to fight simultaneously. There probably would have been another Balkan War and several colonial flashpoints but if the Great Powers are smart then they will use diplomacy to avoid a major war.

It is rather poignant to think that if peace had held for about another 30 months then the Great War could have been avoided. :(

Eh, it depends if the UK gets involved. I think the Germans can still beat those two in 1917 if Britain is not involved.
 
What you say is true, and there still remains the issue of why? In the Crimean war, the French/British decided to keep it localized to the Crimea and some Baltic islands, as opposed to doing a general conscription. In WW1, Russia or Germany or France could have chosen to kept it a local war. Or in 1915 or 1916, the sides could have admitted the inability to "inflict a strategic, as opposed to tactical defeat". If both sides had been willing to give a little, a peace treaty was doable. The Crimean War was limited in 1855, and the USA/CSA raised very large conscription armies, so it was possible for France and Britain. What changed between the 1855 to 1870 time period compared to 1914?

In the Crimean War the logistical idiocy of the British and the failings of Napoleon III's army limited their ability to fight, Russia's obsolete military structure and weaponry limited its ability to fight. There was no tacit agreement to limit the war. There almost never is in terms of the actual war itself when viewed from a historical perspective.

The USA and CSA are completely different scenarios to what happened in Europe. Their war was one where no means of cutting it short was possible, there was no sufficiently powerful leadership willing and able to call it quits, and in the ensuing death match the USA kicked CS ass everywhere save Virginia.
 
Eh, it depends if the UK gets involved. I think the Germans can still beat those two in 1917 if Britain is not involved.

It's entirely possible, but we can tell with the benefit of hindsight. What matters here is the perception among the ruling circles in Germany that after 1917, they had no chance at victory. Therefore, once 1917 rolls over, Germany would attempt to avoid triggering a general confrontation.

Not to mention that in 1917, their one reliable (for a certain value of the word reliable) ally would be temporarily (or, if things get really bad, permanently) knocked out of the game. After all, the Ausgleich was coming up for re-negotiation.
 
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