How long would Operation Downfall last?

As for effective Japanese resistance to American/Allied military operations ending, no later than sometime in 1946. Japanese industry had more or less ground to a halt due to the B-29s and blockade. The military could not respond in an effective manner to the Allied military. After that, it becomes the question of the Allies establishing control/military government over whatever territory it chose to do so.
 
I wonder though, if the US still had the stomach for another year or two of hard war. I read that troops in Europe nearly revolted when they were told that after surviving the Germans they would soon face fighting the Japanese. Also back home the US government was running out of money and people were tired of the shortages and all so really they had to use the bombs to end the war quickly.
 

Shackel

Banned
January 1946.

Kyushu a problem? Nuke 'em.

Tokyo a problem? Nuke 'em.

Bunch a bunkers? Nuke 'em.

30 nuclear weapons were going to be used in Operation Downfall, I believe.
 
The Allies will suffer very much. Look at the Okinawa invasion. The lives cost far more than the entire island hopping campaign. An invasion of Japan will be like more a Pyrrhic victory.

Soviets will likely interfere with the invasion of Japan.

More so, we can see a War of East Asia in the later years [NJapan vs. South Japan & NKorea vs. SKorea].
 
Most likely, I can't see Japan surviving longer than than 1946, as it's people would starve and the US could nuke any cities that held out for too long. Although there were a fair few nutcases in the Japanese military who wanted to keep fighting, I suspect they would have ended up getting lynched by people who know it's kill them or be killed. Once their gone, very few Japanese civilians would have kept fighting.

Just as in Germany however, provoking a Russo-American invasion of Japan would have the situation infinitely worse for the Japanese after the war. Hokkadio and possibly parts of the main island would go Communist and the death toll, would be staggering...

[teg shudders violently at the thought of Communist Pokemon...]
 

Shackel

Banned
Most likely, I can't see Japan surviving longer than than 1946, as it's people would starve and the US could nuke any cities that held out for too long. Although there were a fair few nutcases in the Japanese military who wanted to keep fighting, I suspect they would have ended up getting lynched by people who know it's kill them or be killed. Once their gone, very few Japanese civilians would have kept fighting.

Just as in Germany however, provoking a Russo-American invasion of Japan would have the situation infinitely worse for the Japanese after the war. Hokkadio and possibly parts of the main island would go Communist and the death toll, would be staggering...

[teg shudders violently at the thought of Communist Pokemon...]

Not too sure if the Big Island(Forgot its name) itself would have an occupation zone, but Hokkaido may become an itty-bitty commie.

Rather funny, actually.
 

archaeogeek

Banned
Rather funny, actually.

Collectivize Them All!
(In this game you play a pokemon trainer, named Red/Blue, from the Kanto District who is trying to set up a Trainers' Cooperative in Pallet Town, but you must face the approval of the Trainers' Committee by liberating the pokemon of black market trainers for the collective good, while facing off your counter-revolutionary opponent, Blue/Red, who is in league with the Team Rocket, obviously a group of capitalist pig dogs funded by the imperialist powers to hinder the development of both Pokemon Trainer Cooperatives and the socialist revolution! - I can't help but wonder if the communist flag of Japan would be red with a Yellow sun...)
 
Both of those books are excellent. Also, try Code-Name Downfall, by Norman Polmar and Thomas Allen. I've also got copies of the actual OLYMPIC and CORONET staff studies from MacArthur's HQ, along with CINCPAC Operations Plan 10-45 and Amphibious Forces Pacific Op Plan A11-45. Those, along with The Reports of General MacArthur, helped a lot when I did my MA Thesis on the planned invasion. One other point of interest: The US Strategic Bombing Survey concluded that if the invasion had gone ahead, the U.S. casualties in Kyushu would've been about 75,000. Higher than Normandy, but lower than the Bulge. As for CW use: British, Chinese and Soviet consent would've been required, as there was an inter-allied agreement on this, but I don't see the other Allies vetoing it. And a Soviet attack on Hokkaido? They didn't have the amphibious shipping needed to mount that operation, though Stalin wanted to do so. He was convinced by STAVKA to wait until Spring 1946, when shipping would presumably have been available. In any case, the Soviets in that brief Kuriles campaign got a taste of what the U.S. had experienced in the Central Pacific, and only the order to surrender on 15 Aug spared the Sovs from their own island-hopping campaign. They would've had to fight for each island from Kamchatka down to Hokkaido-against an enemy determined to fight to the death, as the Kuriles were considered to be Japanese soil like Okinawa was, so.....


Sure the Soviets had the shipping available. Those troops that you refer to that attacked the Kuriles were originally meant to attack Hokkaido around the port of Rumoi, but Stalin decided to forego the Hokkaido operation and focus on the Kuriles (those troops originally bound for Hokkaido then went to the southern Kuriles, while a different set of troops using different sets of shipping attacked the northern Kuriles) because he got suspicious about Truman's intentions to honour Roosevelt's promise that all of the Kuriles would be transferred to the USSR. That only arose as a result of the bombings and the Manchurian campaign causing Japan to indicate it's willingness to throw in the towel on August 14/15. If the Japanese don't surrender or even hint at surrender in August 14/15 as would be implied by the OP then Stalin would still go for Hokkaido, leaving the southern Kuriles until later.

Plus it isn't like the Soviets only needed shipping to get troops onto Hokkaido. Hokkaido's size makes it much more conducive to paratroops than small islands like the Kuriles, Ryukyus or Marianas. And they certainly did use paratroops in Manchuria and Korea. With a fairly large airborne contingent (they had more airborne soldiers in the entire Red Army than Japan had soldiers on Hokkaido if I'm not mistaken), it is very, very unlikely that Vasilevsky wouldn't have used some airborne troops for the Hokkaido operation, either in the inital assault or in follow-up.
 

Shackel

Banned
Collectivize Them All!
(In this game you play a pokemon trainer, named Red/Blue, from the Kanto District who is trying to set up a Trainers' Cooperative in Pallet Town, but you must face the approval of the Trainers' Committee by liberating the pokemon of black market trainers for the collective good, while facing off your counter-revolutionary opponent, Blue/Red, who is in league with the Team Rocket, obviously a group of capitalist pig dogs funded by the imperialist powers to hinder the development of both Pokemon Trainer Cooperatives and the socialist revolution! - I can't help but wonder if the communist flag of Japan would be red with a Yellow sun...)

Obviously they'd have White.
 
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