So if the invasion of Britain is given priority over the invasion of Russia in 1941, what's going to happen to the rest of the Wehrmacht in the meantime. Assuming you have until May 1941 , will there be a lot of twiddling of thumbs or is there going to be an attempt to lock down British resources in the Med? With only one Army Group being used for Sealion, that leaves two others (and most of the panzer divisions) unused, so perhaps a limited Barbarossa could be launched, say to get Lenningrad by Christmas?
The 1941 Scenario – not quite so easy
The Battle of Britain is lost(?) and Hitler is somehow persuaded that he should delay the attack on Russia until 1942, so he can secure his southern flank and entry to the Black Sea by getting Turkey into the war. Increased efforts are made to get Spain into the war. The main effort is to be directed at the Balkans, North Africa, and another attack on England. Rommel stays in France (with 7th Panzer Division), and one of the non-Sealion panzer divisions is sent to Africa instead. Only one army group is needed for Sealion so other Troops are found elsewhere for the Balkans campaigns. The Battle of Crete doesn’t happen (unless the Germans take Egypt) but a smaller operation like Hercules might be possible.
Sealion was initially postponed until May 1941 (probably the week before or after 11 May -full moon), which is what Raeder and the Kriegsmarine wanted. What differences would the eight months have made? Would Raeder have found more excuses for further postponement?
Britain
Army
The British army and Home Guard would have overcome most of their problems and be much better equipped.
1. Losses to Egypt, Iceland, India, and the Balkans:
The New Zealanders, Australians and 2nd Armoured Division (including 1st Armoured brigade) went to Egypt, in October- November 1940. IOTL 2nd Armoured Division was destroyed early in 1941 but in this scenario, the German general sent to Africa is likely to obey his orders so perhaps that doesn’t happen. The 70th Bde went to Iceland. The 31st Brigade Group went to India. Any others??
2. Divisions Renamed and Reorganised
3rd London, 35th , and 37th Brigades were merged into the 1st London Division, which was renamed the 56th Infantry (London) Division (this is a best guess, seems to be some confusion about which brigades were renamed 164th and did what). 2nd London Division was renamed 47th (London) Infantry Division 21 November 1940.
3. Reinforcements
The 2nd Canadian Division arrived between August and December 1940 although it wasn’t fully equipped even in 1941. I think it went to the Newhaven area 1941.
4. Five New Armoured Divisions – eight extra months of tank production
The Motor Machine Gun Brigades were replaced with (mostly Mk VI light tank equipped) tank brigades. The 1st MMG becomes the 26th Armoured Bde (equipped with Valentines), the 2nd MMG becomes the 25th Armoured Bde, the 3rd MMG becomes the 28th Armoured Bde, and the 1st Reconn Bde becomes the 27th Armoured Bde. 6th Armoured Division was formed in September – October 1940 from 26th and 20th Armoured Brigades but was not fully equipped until 1942. 27th and 28th Armoured Brigades formed 9th Armoured Division in 1941 but the division was also not fully equipped until 1942. 23rd and 24th Armoured Brigades formed 8th Armoured Division in November 1940. This division was never fully equipped and was broken up not long after arrival in Egypt in 1942. 11th Armoured Division was formed 9 March 1941 in Yorkshire. Guards Armoured Division was formed 17 June 1941 using Guards brigades and equipped with Covenanters. 1st Armoured Division stayed in England until August 1941 The armoured divisions would now be equipped with Matildas, Valentines, Crusaders, and Covenanters and there would be no more “wheeled tank” and “anti-tank lorry” nonsense. However the Germans now have an effective counter to the Matilda and Valentine – the 50mm AT gun. The Daimler armoured car entered service mid-1941. Production of Humber armoured cars didn’t start until 1941 and I’m not sure if any were sent to the units serving in Britain before May.
5. Anti-Invasion County Divisions
In February/March 1941 ten County Divisions were formed in Devon/Cornwall, Dorset, Durham/North Riding, Essex, Hampshire, Lincolnshire, Norfolk, Northumberland, West Sussex, and Yorkshire. All were disbanded December 1941 except the Devon division which became the 77th infantry Division 1 December 1941. They were static and were located on the coast. They did not have the usual troops so should be counted as brigades in strength.
6. Better Equipped Home Guard
In September 1940, the Home Guard only had Molotov Cocktails or the No. 76 grenade (a self-igniting Molotov) as their anti-tank weapon. By May 1941, the Home Guard had started to receive heavy weapons, even if many were of the improvised Blacker Bombard etc type. It had also got a good allocation of automatic weapons and small arms.
7. Better Trained and equipped Troops: More British troops have their full complement of modern artillery and AT guns and some have 6 pdr AT guns. Most have their full complement of transport. Many have sub-machine guns. There are plenty of Universal Carriers to go around. Troops raised in 1940 now have many months of proper training, though most still have no battle experience.
8. British Channel Guns and Railway Artillery: The 18” railway gun and the second 14” Dover gun would have been available.
9. More Extensive Fortifications
The stop lines and coastal fortifications continued to be improved and extended in 1941.
10. Gas!
In 1940, gas had to be sprayed onto the beaches prior to the invaders’ arrival. In 1941, there were sufficient gas bombs available for the beaches to be bombed after arrival as well. Presumably there would have been gas shelling, too.
11. Lend-Lease
The Lend Lease Act was signed 11 March 1941, so its benefits were just beginning to be felt May 1941. Lend-Lease products also had to make it across the Atlantic during the first U-Boat “Happy time”.
12. Anything Else?
Navy
A huge number of ships were built in the eight months but we must assume that some would be sunk in the continuing air operations prior to the invasion. Also, Force H would be needed in the Mediterranean, along with other reinforcements, due to increased Axis activity in the Med. The increase in U-Boat production and the return to service of the German surface fleet would mean greater demand for convoy escorts. The increase in RN numbers didn’t prevent successful sorties by the Hipper and Scheer in early 1941. To defeat just the Bismarck required the resources of the entire home fleet plus Force H.
1. Newly-Commissioned Ships: The RN commissioned the following ships between Sept40 and May41 (inculsive) :
Battleships: King George V and Prince of Wales.
Aircraft carriers: Formidable (went to east. Med), Victorious (stayed in home waters)
Cruisers : Dido, Phoebe, Hermione, Kenya, Nigeria, Mauritius (went to the Indian Ocean). Dido and Phoebe stayed in Home waters from September to March 41 before going to the Med, Kenya and Nigeria stayed in Home waters until the end of the period under consideration, except for some brief detachments to Gibraltar or in the Atlantic.
Destroyers : Gurkha (2), Lance, Legion, Lightning, Napier (L), Nerissa/Piorun.
Escort Destroyers : Blencathra, Brocklesby, Cleveland, Cotswold, Cottesmore, Eglinton, Exmoor, Liddesdale, Mendip, Meynell, Pytchley, Quantock, Quorn, Southdown, Tynedale, Whaddon, Eridge, Farndale, Silverton/Krakowiak, Avon Vale, Blankney. 30 of the 50 destroyers made available in the Destroyers for Bases deal were now operational.
Patrol Boats: all the Fairmile “B” class gun boats.
Anything Else?
British Ship availability matrix (R= reinforcement only, with turn No; H=Force H; M= Operation Menace) .Ships not listed are available all scenarios.
Ship July August September October Nov Dec May 1941
Nelson
Barham H H HM HM H H H
Resolution H H
Valiant H H H H H H H
King George V
Revenge
Formidable
Furious
Victorious
Arethusa H
Australia M M
Belfast
Berwick
Birmingham
Bonadventure
Cairo 5
Cardiff
Coventry
Curlew
Curacoa
Devonshire M M
Dido
Emerald
Enterprise H
Galatea
Glasgow 6
Kenya
Manchester
Mauritius
Naiad H
Newcastle
Norfolk
Phoebe
Sheffield H H H H H
Suffolk
Sussex
York
.
So, remove from the 1941 scenario: Resolution, Formidable, Australia, Belfast, Berwick, Bonadventure, Cardiff, Coventy, Curlew, Curacoa, Devonshire, Dido, Emerald, Enterprise
Include or Add to the 1941 scenario: Nelson, King George V, Revenge, Furious, Victorious, Arethusa, Birmingham, Cairo, Galatea, Glasgow
Air Force
A second Battle of Britain would have to be fought. The RAF would be larger, and upgraded, without hurricanes, though more aircraft had to be sent overseas.
1. Beauforts Operational At least two squadrons of Bristol Beaufort torpedo bombers available
2. Spitfires replace Hurricanes, don’t know how many squadrons but if there was continuous activity from September 1940 against better, longer range German fighters there might be about the same number or fewer after losses.
3. Blenheim IVF fighters moved to Coastal Command/night fighters.
After a brief period loaned to Army Co-operation Command in September 1940, it was moved to Coastal Command, where it was eventually replaced by the Beaufighter (not by May 1941 though).
4. Stirlings come into operation. The first mission flown by Stirling bombers was in February 1941, but it wasn’t until 1942 that it began to be used in large numbers. 67 out of the 84 aircraft delivered in the first five month’s service were lost to enemy action or crashes, so not that much of a threat by May 1941.
5. New Spitfire Versions
Not sure of the impact, probably just maintained parity, though being more heavily armed with longer range guns would be bad for German bombers.
6. Beaufighter
was in service with a number of squadrons as a nightfighter. 72 aircraft in service.
7. Commonwealth Training Programme
The Commonweath Training Programme was in full swing, eventually providing hundreds of thousands of aircrew, the first of which began arriving in October/November 1940
8. Anything Else?
Germany
Army
The German army still retains its advantages in tactics, numbers, experience, training, organisation, and communications, but it is no longer much better equipped.
1. Panzer Divisions Reorganised The panzers could also have reduced the proportion of light tanks in their forces (e.g. the 7th Panzer had 30 or more Pz 38 (T)) or at least brought up to establishment with Panzer IIIs (Panzer III F/G tanks with 60mm armour) and Panzer IVs. Also, the panzer divisions could be re-organised to have equivalent numbers of panzer regiments in each division (some were under strength, and some over strength in 1940). Their infantry could have received more armoured half tracks (only one company per division was armoured in 1940). More amphibious tanks could be built. More Assault Guns and armoured engineering equipment would have been available.
2. More amphibious training More amphibious training would be possible. Many troops did not get to train with barges until September or October 1940, although they did practice beach landings from July.
3. German Army Receives new Weapons: the 50mm anti-tank gun comes into widespread service. All Panzer III’s are upgraded to 50mm guns. Add at least one Nebelwerfer Regiment each to 16th, 6th and 9th Armies, respectively. There would be more opportunities to replace horses with motorised transport in the assault divisions.
4. 6th Mountain Division and Airborne units up to strength
The 6th Mountain Division received its missing regiment before June 1941. The Airborne units could have been brought up to strength, though I suppose that any new Airborne regiments would be assigned to the Mediterranean theatre. Were any new paratroop regiments recruited in 1941? The airborne troops would have more troops, bigger (tank-carrying) gliders, more gliders, more transport aircraft, and better equipment (e.g. kettenkraftrad, the LG 40 and the 2.8cm sPzB 41 AT gun).
5. Anything Else?
Navy
This would give the Germans enough time to build 500 landing craft and sufficient other equipment for a well-equipped landing - such as the landwasserschepler and the portable jetty. The landing would have properly trained crews, greater shipping capacity, better weather, and properly trained troops. It could be done more quickly and more troops would be landed on the first day, including a panzer division.
1. Amphibious Warfare Preparations It was planned to build 500 landing craft (MFP and other types). This would release the strain on the German economy at least of having to hold back the barges. It would also improve the chances of a successful landing.
2. Captured Ships Added to the Kriegsmarine: It might have been possible to add the ancient ships Thetis, Nymphe, Adler, Nordland, and some Danish torpedo boats to the Kriegsmarine, though these would have been of little use except for the modern torpedo boats.
3. Newly-Commissioned or Repaired Ships Come into Service: The Kriegsmarine could add the BBs’ Bismarck and Tirpitz, BCs’ Scharnhorst and Gneisenau and CA Prinz Eugen to their lineup. 50 U-boats were built in 1940 but 200 were built in 1941 so maybe 100 would be available instead of the 20-50 available in September 1940. Don’t know how many destroyers, S-boats, and minesweepers were also built or repaired before May 1941.
4. Increased Port Capacity: the Germans would have had lots more time to clear the channel ports of debris and sunken ships left after they were captured, and also to build extra port facilities where they are needed. They therefore get an increase in port capacities and a decrease in turn-around time. They may not have needed a week between invasion waves.
5. Portable Unloading Facilities Available The Germans built various “landing bridges” in late 1940 and early 1941, and intended to mass-produce them and unloading equipment such as the LWS. In addition, at Brighton, Eastbourne, and/or Hastings the piers at those locations weren’t destroyed and could easily be fixed with bridging equipment. These and the portable equipment were piers, not portable ports, so were of little use in a storm, but would have helped increase unloading speed and allowed ships to unload directly onto the shore, without having to use empty barges as originally intended.
To enable supplies to get off the ships, there was they navy designed Heavy Landing Bridge and the Army’s Seeschlange floating roadway and Landebrüke 674. For the navy design 1 Krupp, and 1 Dortmunder prototype were built and, after it was found that the latter took a month to erect, eight Krupp units ordered (though later cancelled). It consisted of a platform which was transported to the landing beach by means of 3 linked coasters. At the intended location the 4 legs of the platform were lowered to the sea bed and the platform was raised high enough to allow the coasters to float free. 8 rammed posts secured the legs before the platform was raised to the level required for unloading the ships. The spaces between the platforms and the distance to the shore were spanned by engineer bridges.It was possible (without the need for specialised personnel) to make the Krupp design ready for use at the landing beach within one day. The two prototypes were joined together and used as the “German Jetty” in the Channel Islands until 1979.
One Seeschlange was built and tested in France in 1941. Two others were used in North Africa, and others used in the Balkans and on the Eastern Front. This "floating roadway" was formed from a series of joined modules that could be towed into place to act as a temporary jetty. Moored ships could then either unload their cargo directly onto the roadbed or lower it down onto waiting vehicles via their heavy-duty booms. It could be transported by rail and it was intended to use it in Operation Hercules, the proposed invasion of Malta.
In the winter of 1940/41, the German16th Army (responsible for the largest part of the cross-Channel invasion force) tested a Landebruke 674 mobile prefabricated landing stage. This was to be carried on the pontoons of the invasion’s first wave troops and assembled in about four hours on shore. It could cope with loads of up to 16 tons. VII Corps, part of 16th Army, planned to transport four of these ramps. Another 16th Army solution was fixed landing bridges which would take about eight days to build. Several wooden versions were tested which were capable of withstanding quite rough conditions for many weeks. The Army provided 600m long temporary bridges capable of carrying a 16-ton load; each first wave invasion division was to transport an 80m run of this bridge, plus a 120m run of an 8-ton bridge, 340m of a trackway for bridges of inflatable boats, and 400m for trestle bridges. In addition, although the British blew up one span of the fun piers at Hastings and Eastbourne, the Germans would have been fixed them with bridging equipment and run ships right up to the piers.
Seven Landwasserschlepper (Land-Water-Tractor, or LWS) were available in 1940, 14 made by 1941 (though mass-production was planned for a 1941 invasion). This was huge tracked boat was ordered in 1935 for the German Army Engineers to aid river crossing and bridging operations. On the beaches, they would have been used for pulling ashore unpowered assault barges during the invasion and for towing vehicles across the beaches. They would also carry supplies directly ashore during the six hours of falling tide when the barges were grounded. This involved towing a Kässbohrer amphibious trailer (capable of transporting 10-20 tons of freight) behind the LWS. It carried a 3- 5 man crew and 20 passengers. Supplies hauled to the beaches by the LWS could then have been moved off the beaches by hundreds of captured French armoured tracked munitions carriers (karetten), 81 of which were in the first wave.
6. More training for transport fleets
There would have been more time to train the transport fleet crews in the use of their craft at sea and in the manoeuvres required for landing and co-operation with other craft. This would have made crossings faster, night moves safer and more likely to succeed; and allowed for better protective fire from the close escorts.
Anything Else?
Air Force
The Luftwaffe would be much better off, with the Fw 190, introduced in August 1940, and drop tanks. The Fw 190 was superior to all British fighters when it was introduced, although only available in small numbers, like the Me 109F. Also, the Luftwaffe finally acknowledged Setptember 29 1940 that it couldn’t win the war on its own by issuing orders to support Sealion and saying what it would do in the event of an invasion. A more supportive Luftwaffe effort can therefore be expected (though not without continued wrangling with the navy). Perhaps it would spend the eight months bombing ports and naval targets as well as industrial targets and engaging in a new battle against radar and the RAF. Perhaps it only needs to bomb the ports in order to starve the industries of raw materials. What strategy should the Luftwaffe adopt, given that the first few months will be the bad weather of autumn and winter?
7. Drop Tanks For Me-109's:. The Me109 E-7 with auxiliary fuel tank or bomb had become operational in October 1940. The Me 109F was also available in small numbers.
8. German Fighter-bombers: All German fighters can be equipped as fighter-bombers. In addition to Erprobungsgruppe 210, the Me109 E-7 with auxiliary fuel tank or bomb became operational with one unit in October, after training with them in September. The Me 109 E-4/B became available 2 September 1940 and all Me 109 units were ordered to operate one third of their strength as fighter-bombers. These fighter-bombers were able to use their better high altitude performance to stay out of trouble, and took relatively few losses. However it was silly to use fighters as high altitude bombers!! Fighter-bombers could have done damage to installations like Radar stations or been used for low-level attacks on airfields instead.
9. Ju-52 Losses in Holland Replaced: Ju 52 production was about 25 per month, meaning about 225 extra Ju 52s’ built between September 1940 and May 1941. Also 40 Fw 200 Condors were available in October 1940, each able to carry up to 30 fully equipped soldiers.
10. Fw 190 Comes into Service The first Fw 190 flew in 1939, but the first pre-production series wasn’t ordered until November 1940 and the first production series produced until June 1941. If a 1941 Sealion was to be attempted, then it is likely that the Battle of Britain would have continued longer and the need for the new fighter would have become more obvious, spurring development and production. It was tested by top pilots in combat before May 1941. The main problem was with the engine.
11. Heavy Bombers Also available would be a small number of He 177 heavy bombers – perhaps a longer Battle of Britain might help the development of this bomber as well, though not much could be done while it continued to have only two nacelles. In any case, though not as good, the Do 217 had a heavier bombload than other German bombers and was now available.
12. Do 17 out of service
By the summer of 1941, most units equipped with the Do 17 had upgraded to improved models of the Ju 88 or the Do 217.
13. Luftwaffe Torpedo Bombers, and More Ju 88’s available
Ju 88 and He 111 torpedo bombers did not become available until late 1941, but could have become available earlier with the navy’s co-operation.
14. Scourge of the Atlantic: I squadron of Fw-200 Condors are available in France.
15. Go 242 and Me 321 come into service: The Gigant could carry 200 troops or a tank or an 88mm gun and tractor. It came into service in February 1941. 200 were built. The Go 242 first flew for the Luftwaffe in mid-1941. It could carry 23 troops or a Kubelwagen or equivalent. The DFS 230 could only carry 9 troops. Glider numbers can be assumed to have increased significantly over their strength in 1940.
16. The Battle of the Beams
There might have been greater effort to combat the British radar stations with jamming after the British jammed the Luftwaffe radio navigation beams during the Blitz. The Luftwaffe knew how to use “window” in 1940 but didn’t use it for fear it would be used against them!
17. Seilbomben
There would have been more time to test and refine this weapon, if it was to be used at all.
Anything Else?
Italy
The CAI returned to Italy before May 1941 but might have stayed if an invasion was planned. The Atlantic Submarine Group might have assisted an invasion by attacking shipping in the Western Approaches, though it’s more likely that it would stay where it was and keep the RN busy there. It would be slightly more effective as the Germans would have time to upgrade the Italian submarines to their standards and to suit Atlantic operations (they had to modify many of the Italian submarines due to their sub-standard equipment). SM 79 bombers could have been requested to replace the BR 20s so they could use their torpedo bombing ability. The Germans re-equipped some of the Italian fighters with Me 109s so they would be more useful in 1941. A stronger Mediterranean strategy might enable Italian fleet units to operate outside the Mediterranean, drawing away RN units from Britain or perhaps assisting with the invasion.