How long would Fascist Italy remain independent after a Nazi victory in WWII?

In the aftermath of a Nazi victory in WWII would Italy remain Nazi Germany's partner/ally or would the Germans eventually absorb Italy into the Reich?

the purpose of this thread is not to say how the Nazis win but let's go with the classic alternate history scenario where England has surrendered sometime after the fall of France, Stalin is dead and the Soviets pushed beyond the Urals, The United States and the former commonwealth countries are in a Cold War with Nazi Germany and Japan was stilled nuked and defeated.

would Italian Fascism survive especially after the death of Mussolini as a separate entity like Mao"s Red China OTL or would Nazism become the new party: Italians who meet the Aryan standard become honorary supermen. They are sent to Berlin to colleges and military schools. Eventually they come to rule Italy. Darker Italians become Italy's Slavs. Or would the Nazis simply occupy the country?
 
There is a strong possibility of Italian Fascism falling after Mussolini's death. If so, Germany may keep Italy aligned with its league of fascist European states by force.

This depends on a lot of things, though. A Nazi-West Cold War probably either won't last long, or won't be as intense, since Germany will certainly mellow out soon after Hitlers death. And that isn't long after 1945. The NSDAP will probably be sidelined by the military, and a conservative, but still officially Nazi, regime will be established. Post fascist Italy may see value in a continued alliance with a more moderate Germany. Or it could become non-aligned, like OTLs Yugoslavia.

From the 50s onward, the world is probably looking at a geopolitical rivalry of similar intensity to the modern Russia/US one, rather than Cuban missile crisis levels of near hostility. Italy will play a major role in this because of its strategic location and influence around the Mediterranean, so influence over Italy will be a priority for both sides.
 

TinyTartar

Banned
The Italians would have to accept being basically puppets, being allowed to carry out a policy of glorious expansion against African tribes with German blessing, but not messing with what Hitler cared about in Europe.

Hitler did not want Italy in the Reich, did not even really push for South Tyrol, although I can see this becoming an issue one day, and admired Mussolini for most of his life. Hitler would likely allow Italy to keep their French concession and Balkan holdings, as well as wipe up the scraps of the British Mediterranean that they desired, such as Malta, Egypt, and Cyprus. Perhaps they would even get Tunisia from the French.

A Nazi win is going to remake Europe, and likely lead to a Fascist France as well. This is going to make Italy a "brother" among Fascist nations as long as territorial goals are kept from becoming too onerous on others. Spain, France, Italy, Germany, Hungary, Romania, Slovakia, etc. can cooperate and find common ground as long as everyone respects who is really in charge.
 

TinyTartar

Banned
There is a strong possibility of Italian Fascism falling after Mussolini's death. If so, Germany may keep Italy aligned with its league of fascist European states by force.

This depends on a lot of things, though. A Nazi-West Cold War probably either won't last long, or won't be as intense, since Germany will certainly mellow out soon after Hitlers death. And that isn't long after 1945. The NSDAP will probably be sidelined by the military, and a conservative, but still officially Nazi, regime will be established. Post fascist Italy may see value in a continued alliance with a more moderate Germany. Or it could become non-aligned, like OTLs Yugoslavia.

From the 50s onward, the world is probably looking at a geopolitical rivalry of similar intensity to the modern Russia/US one, rather than Cuban missile crisis levels of near hostility. Italy will play a major role in this because of its strategic location and influence around the Mediterranean, so influence over Italy will be a priority for both sides.

The thing that people often mistake about a Nazi victory is that Hitler was the peak of madness. He wasn't, and the party could get much nastier and much more efficient under different leadership. The military would still be dominant, but the officer class would be increasingly Nazi in sympathy. Remember that the longer the Nazis go on, the more entrenched into society they become, as the Hitler Youth program was making a lot of loyal Nazis out of German children.

A more Nazi military doesn't mean that it is worse; the SS became a very crack force by the end of the war, and multiple talented officers without ties to the Prussian Junker class who were devoted Nazis indeed existed, most prominently Walter Model.
 
I see Italy and its "New Roman Empire" as surviving but definitely the tail of the Nazi dog. The Germans are going to be very busy for a long time remaking Europe - physically incorporating the "aryans/nordics", getting ridding of the excess Slavs and rebuilding Poland and Russia, etc. It's much easier to have the Italians do their thing, it doesn't really affect them negatively, and from an ideological standpoint no reason to do so. Leaving the "New Roman Empire" be is much better than trying to take them over.
 
This depends on a lot of things, though. A Nazi-West Cold War probably either won't last long, or won't be as intense, since Germany will certainly mellow out soon after Hitlers death.

Based on what exactly. It's not like Hitler was even the worst of his inner circle. More likely someone worse takes power, since the moderates would have been either sidelined or shot by this point for some made up (or not so made up, these are Nazis we're talking about) crime/failing or another.

And that isn't long after 1945. The NSDAP will probably be sidelined by the military, and a conservative, but still officially Nazi, regime will be established.

This meme needs to die. The military wasn't going to be leading any glorious revolutions against the Nazis. The military was going to be dismantled and replaced by party fanatics. The Old Guard of the army, navy, and Air Force were too not Nazi to be left intact even (maybe especially) after winning the war.

Anyway, on topic: indefinitely, or at least so long as European fascism survives. If they are lucky this means a quick clobbering (and tens of millions dead) by the Western Allies. If not...economic collapse, followed by civil war fought by men who had no issue with murdering (by this point) 100 million people.
 
Despite all mad Plans Hitler & Co had
Italy was mostly not Part of it !

Hitler focus on on East Europe and west part of USSR as neuer Lebensraum, by exterminate the locals
Also on Germanization of Benelux and Scandinavia and Baltic and to incorporate in "Thousand year Reich"
while Himmler wanted "SS-free state of neo Burgund" next to it
from Calais at long Border of "Thousand year Reich" to Marseille next Italian Border.

Hitler was willing to leave South Tirol to Italy in exchange he would settle the south tirol population after War at place former know as "Stalingrad"
there some hints that for war plans for Swiss invasion, Italy would participate in South Swiss (Italian speaking)

This Map below show what Mussolini had in Mind for his "Italian Empire" in 1936
with Dollfuss Austria as buffer state to Nazi Germany, but agreement between Hitler and Mussolini open way for the Anschluss of Austria to The Third Reich
but future of Italy in Nazi dominate Europe is highly speculative
Mussolini dead could end the fascism in Italy what could let The thousand Year Reich to intervene military.
on other hand who succeed Hitler as Führer of The thousand Year Reich could have other plans for Italy as Hitler...

837px-Italy_aims_Europe_1936.png
 
total economic domination comes to mind. the german end goal was to fuel german industry with free resources, the italian one as to relive a 2000 year old dream.
 
Yeah I see Italy being treated more as a friend of Germany than a client, especially so long as Mussolini's alive. Don't see a hostile rivalry building up (Italy would definitely be aware of Germany's overwhelming military superiority), Germany would probably just let Italy expand into Africa and the surrounding areas a fair bit so long as it didn't start to impinge on German interests.
 
The thing that people often mistake about a Nazi victory is that Hitler was the peak of madness. He wasn't, and the party could get much nastier and much more efficient under different leadership. The military would still be dominant, but the officer class would be increasingly Nazi in sympathy. Remember that the longer the Nazis go on, the more entrenched into society they become, as the Hitler Youth program was making a lot of loyal Nazis out of German children.

A more Nazi military doesn't mean that it is worse; the SS became a very crack force by the end of the war, and multiple talented officers without ties to the Prussian Junker class who were devoted Nazis indeed existed, most prominently Walter Model.

I never said he was. A couple of other things he wasn't were incompetent and inefficient. It's hard to get nastier or more efficient than the murder of 6-7+ million Jews and God knows how many others in this timeline.

The Nazi leadership was a patchwork of rival fiefdoms, each member of Hitlers inner circle (the possible successors) having their own power base. When Hitler dies, the power struggle will quickly become a chaotic mess, making space for any number of forces to make their move.

Nazi Germany wasn't like the Soviet Union, where all institutions were creatures of the party. The Nazis were grafted onto an already existing economic and military elite that is alive and well. Much of that elite has long standing grievances with the Nazis, as evidenced by all the coup plots against Hitler involving even legends like Rommel. History shows that the new generation of officers in a totalitarian state doesn't automatically become a layer of fanatics. They will generally adopt the outlook of the existing military leadership, who they view as heroes, and they will go with the times.

In this timeline, Hitler will be secure in his support from the military. Their oaths are to him and they won the war under him. But to think Himmler or Goering can waltz in after Hitlers death, heavily contested by the others, and have the same clout is wishful thinking. German society will continue to revere Hitler, but will badly want change. The military will want what it sees as its rightful relationship to the state. The business class will want a relaxation of economic controls to relieve the ailing economy. The churches will want a normalization of religious life and will oppose the crazy mystic ideologues that have thrived under Hitler. All will oppose the clowns seeking Hitler's mantle. The big bad enemy is gone. Germany is on top. The same kind of things that lead to Churchill's fall after the war IOTL and the general relaxation of things in the Soviet Union after Stalin will drive denazification (a very different version of it) in the couple of years after Hitler's death.
 
In the aftermath of a Nazi victory in WWII would Italy remain Nazi Germany's partner/ally or would the Germans eventually absorb Italy into the Reich?

If by "absorb" you mean annex, the the answer is no. There were no plans to this effect. Italy would probably frefall in power relative to Germany until it was nothing but an extension of Germany's economic and geopolitical policies, but it would never get annexed.
 
The military will want what it sees as its rightful relationship to the state.

The military was too deeply in bed with the Nazis to avoid getting Nazified themselves. We tend to associate political education only with the Communists, but the Nazis had it too. Several times a week their soldiers and officers attended classes with Nazi officials who filled them full of their duty under National Socialism... there's one letter from Guderian to his subordinates where he reminds them that attendance at weekly Nazi class is not optional, and being busy fighting a war is no excuse. By the time Hitler croaks, the German military will be very much in line with Nazi ideology.

The business class will want a relaxation of economic controls to relieve the ailing economy.
Those economic controls were making them quite decent profits, thank-you-very-much.

The churches will want a normalization of religious life and will oppose the crazy mystic ideologues that have thrived under Hitler.
The churches were so much of a non-entity in the Nazi power structure that nobody is going to care.

All will oppose the clowns seeking Hitler's mantle.
Mainly to take it for themselves.

The big bad enemy is gone.
No it isn't. The Judeo-Bolshevik Asiatics are still snooping on the other side of the Urals, undoubtedly plotting to use the slavs in the freshly conquered territory as part of their grand conspiracy to bring about Germany's downfall so Germany will have to deal with them. Meanwhile, the Judeo-Capitalists of the United States are clearly going to try and undermine the Reich from the other direction, so Germany must prepare for war against them. And so-on and so-forth.
 
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