How long would a neutral fascist Italy last

Probably to Mussolini's death. But probably not to this day. On some point there will be much pressure transition back to democracy.
 
Probably to Mussolini's death. But probably not to this day. On some point there will be much pressure transition back to democracy.

Similar to Spain and Portugal at a guess.

Agreed on both these counts. Traditional Fascism is built pretty heavily on the charisma/cult of personality of "The Leader" acting as a centeralizing/mobalizing force to bring the wide variety of right-wing groups and ideologies into lock-step with one another. After their death, the delicate network and balance between the different power-players will quickly start to break down and bring about democratizing or at least decenteralizing reforms as perspective heirs play games for power.
 
The potential difference would be that Italy had an existing monarchy where for example Spain had lost it and under Franco it was being groomed to succeed him. Here Mussolini still must act under the King and play to the legality of his post serving a yet higher authority. If we accept that the monarchy will acquiesce to Mussolini's de facto rule then I totally agree, unlike Franco Mussolini faces not simply his own inner party struggles but is always subject to the loss of support from the King who should command loyalty separate from Mussolini. Here the balancing act is even more precarious. So I think the question becomes how well did the Fascists actually rule in place of a democracy and how effective was Mussolini in governing. I fear the people are rather tolerant so long as peace, prosperity and success flow, the King is content so long as the people are and he suffers none for it. If you can paint Mussolini as better than average and Italy prospers then he rules to his death bed.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
IMO depends on IF (rarely one of the 20th century dictators did) and the HOW he would sort out/regulate/organize his successor/succession
 
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