How long does The Great Patriotic War last if.....

Orry

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Based on Nazi Germany vs Soviet Union with differing levels of western support.

OTL base line. Lend lease, Bomber offensive, fighting in the med, threat and eventual western allied invasion of Europe.

Assuming Wnny never become PM and the UK drops out of the war around the end of July 1941.

Case 1. No Bomber offensive affecting German production, no Africa Corp, no invasion threat - 30% of occupation forces (including all armour and 60% of aircraft) available for the Eastern Front - No British supplies, American Lend Lease delivered to Far East - Japan stays at peace with Russia. Germany does not declare war on America - no u-boat campaign

Case 2. as Case 1 but no Lend Lease as America is isolationist and then goes all out against Japan.

Case 3. as Case 2 but Vichy and Spain act as agents to allow the Germans to purchase limited amounts of fuel and raw materials etc (Germany would not have a lot of exchange to use for purchase so this would be limited to 5% of the OTL supply to Russia)

Case 4. As Case 3 but Germany gets 20% of the Lend lease that went to the Soviet Union in OTL in exchange for all British POW's etc that they held.
 
The Soviet Union ends up on the Oder and stalls, for cases 2 and 3 in my opinion. Case 1, the Soviet Union might get to the Rhine before being halted, but that's about it. Case 4, and Germany might have a chance to stop the Soviet Union, especially if Spain isn't asked to recall the volunteers serving in the East and Italy isn't screwing around in North Africa.
 

Orry

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Given in OTL the war ends May 1945 - when does it end in these cases?

Assuming Hitler does not mess it up WORSE than in OTL......
 
Hard to say...one question that affects the "how much longer would the war last" question is does Hitler still decide to die in Berlin under the circumstances? If not, it could take the Soviets a while longer to conquer the rest of Germany.
 
Depends on estimates

My guess is case #1 an extra year or so

Case #2 An extra two years max, less if the USSR or Germany messes up bad, toss up whether a Nazi or Soviet victory

Case #3 Same as #2 pretty much

Case#4 Possibly shorter than OTL depending on how long it takes the Nazis to win

Of course a Germany victory would be well we lost 90% of our military aged men but the USSR lost all of theirs

Edit: and of course the scenarios are fairly unlikely (as in borderline ASB)
 
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Case 1: Soviets still win and probably take all of Germany, but the war lasts 2 years longer

Case 2: ends up as a stalemate somewhere in Poland

Case 3: ends up as a stalemate somewhere in Poland

Case 4: The Soviets fight their way back to their pre-war borders, and the two powers agree to a truce of exhaustion

Remember that if the war in the West had wrapped up or never happened, the USSR will be much better prepared for the German invasion, and a lot of the devastating early losses that the Soviets took will be averted. Stalin was absolutely convinced that Hitler would not attack him if Britain was still in the fight, and blocked the Red Army from taking even basic precautions against an invasion.
 
Remember that if the war in the West had wrapped up or never happened, the USSR will be much better prepared for the German invasion, and a lot of the devastating early losses that the Soviets took will be averted. Stalin was absolutely convinced that Hitler would not attack him if Britain was still in the fight, and blocked the Red Army from taking even basic precautions against an invasion.
Given the scenario Britain is still in the fight when Barbarossa is launched

The OP mentions Britain exiting in the end of July 41, Barbarossa is June 22nd 41

So Barbarossa still goes as OTL and may be one of the reasons the UK bows out
 
Case 1. No Bomber offensive affecting German production, no Africa Corp, no invasion threat - 30% of occupation forces (including all armour and 60% of aircraft) available for the Eastern Front - No British supplies, American Lend Lease delivered to Far East - Japan stays at peace with Russia. Germany does not declare war on America - no u-boat campaign

The USSR still wins, but it takes longer and they have to pull in more troops from the Far East. In addition, the lack of a bombing campaign hurts the Nazi war effort and less material is produced overall. War over: 1947.

Case 2. as Case 1 but no Lend Lease as America is isolationist and then goes all out against Japan.

The Red Army is forced to fight more cautiously and the increased number of men and women forced to work in industry means the war takes longer to win. This is counterbalanced by Nazi stupidity as Hitler insists on attempting an offensive against the Soviets each time the Red Army halts to resupply. The offensives all go badly and Germany runs out of men faster than in the case above. The war ends slightly earlier in 1947.

Case 3. as Case 2 but Vichy and Spain act as agents to allow the Germans to purchase limited amounts of fuel and raw materials etc (Germany would not have a lot of exchange to use for purchase so this would be limited to 5% of the OTL supply to Russia)

This time the Nazi offensives actually make it somewhere, not far but the advances mean the gas supply is squandered. Additionally, the extra supplies are largely put toward wunderwaffen that have no chance of working. The war ends with Soviet victory in 1948.

Case 4. As Case 3 but Germany gets 20% of the Lend lease that went to the Soviet Union in OTL in exchange for all British POW's etc that they held.

Hmm... The Nazis might actually win this one, well not lose horribly at least. Either they force a Brest-Litovsk style treaty on the Soviets, or Hitler orders his armies to try to make it to the Urals. If the first case Germany wins in 1942 or 1943. In the second case they are winning until '43, but are overextended and driven back into Poland in '47. The war ends there as the Soviets aren't capable of pushing farther forward and the German military overthrows Hitler for incompetence.
 

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Given the scenario Britain is still in the fight when Barbarossa is launched

The OP mentions Britain exiting in the end of July 41, Barbarossa is June 22nd 41

So Barbarossa still goes as OTL and may be one of the reasons the UK bows out

I gave July 1941 as the British bowing out of the war as a point where a Brit government without Winny at the Helm might do so if they get good terms for that very reason. At that point it looks like the Germans are on for another victory and they are fighting against the communists who are not the establishments faviorate people.

I imagine there would be some civil unrest in the UK and possibly an end to the war cabinet as there are calls for support to be given to gallant Russia....
 
Hard to say...one question that affects the "how much longer would the war last" question is does Hitler still decide to die in Berlin under the circumstances? If not, it could take the Soviets a while longer to conquer the rest of Germany.

Perhaps so. Also, welcome to AH.com. :D
 
IMHO the real answer to all these questions is "they both self-destruction and good riddance to bad rubbish." From reading Clark and Glantz I don't think Herr Hitler's armies had it in them to conduct a war all that capably, given that even their own memoirs note their taking pride in undermining Hitler's actual, stated directives, while an army able to mobilize 10 million men in six months and bounce back from that is not destructible by purely military means. Nazi ideology self-imposed on Germany limits of having to use military means to defeat an enemy they needed both political and military weaponry to defeat.

If Germany were led by a sane, rational group intent on invading the USSR, it did have the potential as 1941 illustrates to at the very least win a new Brest-Litvosk that'd be very likely to stick. But such a group wouldn't have had things like the Commissar Order as prerequisites and part of ideological indoctrination, for one thing.
 
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