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How long would Saddams government last without the Iraq war?

The views seemed to be mixed with a lot of people saying Saddam government would collapsed with the Arab Spring. However I believe it would be able to last longer. While Iraq was weak in 2003, I think that the events over the following years would strengthen it.

For example, oil prices would likely begin to rise at around 2005 thanks to the growth in Asia and resulting increased demand, giving Saddams Iraq nice boost to its economy. Also the sanctions regime was already crumbling by 2003 and I don't foresee it being to last too long especially after the Great Recession.

What are your thoughts?
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