I think that sanctions would continue to escalate as the commodity boom went on, and tamper much of the economic growth that could have happened. Saddam's repressive apparatus was much better tested, much more effective, and much more ideologically committed (remember, he purged the Republican Guard in the mid to late 90s as his fundamentalism took hold), and could have crushed any Shiite revolt.
I personally think that Saddam was in his last decade anyways in 2003. He I think probably dies before the Arab Spring, and Qusay takes over, and probably carries out a major purge of Saddam's old comrades who were still around (Chemical Ali, al-Douri, al-Tikriti, and some others), while keeping around most of the younger high ups who he had a chance to cultivate.
Qusay would probably be a bit like the younger Assad in that he would present a more mild face to the outside world, but would be utterly ruthless in terms of domestic opposition.
I personally think that Saddam was in his last decade anyways in 2003. He I think probably dies before the Arab Spring, and Qusay takes over, and probably carries out a major purge of Saddam's old comrades who were still around (Chemical Ali, al-Douri, al-Tikriti, and some others), while keeping around most of the younger high ups who he had a chance to cultivate.
Qusay would probably be a bit like the younger Assad in that he would present a more mild face to the outside world, but would be utterly ruthless in terms of domestic opposition.