How long does it take for America to declare war on Germany

[Snowstalker]

...without a German declaration of war? Let's say that, with his hands full with the Soviets (and angry that Japan did not help Germany in Barbarossa), Hitler holds off the declaration of war with the United States. With the US and Germany already effectively at war in the Atlantic, how long before war is officially declared? And does FDR have the votes in Congress to do it?

 

[jmc247]

A few months after Pearl Harbor when another U.S. ship gets sunk by a U-Boat it gets played up and FDR will have the votes for war.

But, he likely won't have the support in the country for a Germany first strategy without Germany declaring war first.

 

[Tank Cdr]

Without a German declaration of war, it gets tough since the United States is focused on Japan and the desire for revenge there. It would get even tougher if Germany makes statements condeming the Japanese actions and starts distancing themselves from Japan. A smart German government, meaning without Hitler, would have done that. In that case FDR would still try very hard to get the US involved in Europe. I think he would have the US Navy actively trying to push the Kriegsmarine's u-boats into firing on US Navy warships. He would probably increase lend-lease and he may unofficially try to get a "volunteer" force sent to Great Britain.

 

[The Red]

But, he likely won't have the support in the country for a Germany first strategy without Germany declaring war first.

A Germany first strategy doesn't just make strategic sense, a Japan first strategy is very hard to pull off immediately. After 1943 sure but ignoring Germany won't necessarily lead to greater action against Japan.

 

[Astrodragon]

The USA and UK are at war with Japan.
Roosevelt sends supplies to Britain on US-flagged ships 'for use against Japan'
Either germany ignores the ships (so the U-boat war is dead), or it sinks it.
Sinking supplies to help fight the Japanese = DOW by the USA on Germany..

 

[Redbeard]

IMHO Roosevelt before PH planned for a remake of the US entry into WWI - .i.e. let things escalate in the Atlantic until the necessary political will for war is present. Without a German declaration of war in Dec.41 my best guess would be "sometime in 1942".

But I agree that it would be difficult to go by a "Germany first" strategy, and that will probably mean the absense of a creditable invasion threat to western Europe and a much weaker bombing offensive.

The Germans might still not defeat the Soviets, but I doubt if the Soviets can defeat Germany either. So perhaps an armistice between Germany and Russia by 1943 or 44?

That will probably make an invasion of Europe impossible by the time Japan is defeated and you can't have well fed nazis give up just by nuking some of their cities...


...all in all Dolfie was a real pal when he declared war on USA!

Regards

Steffen Redbeard

 

[miketr]

Once the country is at war with Japan it will become easier for FDR to get a DOW vs. Germany. As a WAG I am going to say 6 months to a year.

First effect is during that time period production orders would favor a war vs. Japan. Once Germany enters the picture then product orders and priorities have to be changed.

Second effect is that until US enters the war then Germany doesn't need to directly deal with it in ETO. Torch happened Nov 1942, what happens if that is delayed till Mid 1943 or even later? With everything that follows being delayed. What effect does delayed US entry have on eastern Front?

Delayed US entry, again depending on time period, effects the Air Campaign vs. Germany.

In the end I still expect Germany to go down but details be very different. You would need some type of wild card to change the ultimate outcome of the war. Only place for that is Eastern Front and unless Stalin cuts a deal because he is tired of fighting alone I don't see US entry as enough of a change. As long as US continues lend lease to Soviets of course, if that changes then all bets are off but I don't see why that would change.

Michael

 

[Daylight Savings]

IMHO Roosevelt before PH planned for a remake of the US entry into WWI - .i.e. let things escalate in the Atlantic until the necessary political will for war is present. Without a German declaration of war in Dec.41 my best guess would be "sometime in 1942".

But I agree that it would be difficult to go by a "Germany first" strategy, and that will probably mean the absense of a creditable invasion threat to western Europe and a much weaker bombing offensive.

The Germans might still not defeat the Soviets, but I doubt if the Soviets can defeat Germany either. So perhaps an armistice between Germany and Russia by 1943 or 44?

That will probably make an invasion of Europe impossible by the time Japan is defeated and you can't have well fed nazis give up just by nuking some of their cities...


...all in all Dolfie was a real pal when he declared war on USA!

Regards

Steffen Redbeard

There was never any chance of armistice on the eastern front short of a double coup. Neither Hitler nor Stalin would ever make peace without completely destroying the other. Without a Western Front and a lighter bombing campaign leading to a larger Luftwaffe and a better supplied Wehrmacht this likely means that Germany and the USSR grind each other into dust before the US is ready to invade. The Soviets still win, Germany cannot win that war, but cost and timeline for victory is inflated.

 

[Redbeard]

There was never any chance of armistice on the eastern front short of a double coup. Neither Hitler nor Stalin would ever make peace without completely destroying the other. Without a Western Front and a lighter bombing campaign leading to a larger Luftwaffe and a better supplied Wehrmacht this likely means that Germany and the USSR grind each other into dust before the US is ready to invade. The Soviets still win, Germany cannot win that war, but cost and timeline for victory is inflated.

How do you know?

Even if the Red Army has pushed the Germans back, I doubt they will be able to go much further if Germany doesn't have to divert rescources on the OTL scale to fight the bomber campaign and to prepare for full scale invasion.

In OTL the Soviets were extremely exhausted by 1944, but the German resources stretched to the limit. Just try to see how many fighters and AA guns were deployed against the bomber offensive or how many Divisions were deployed on the Atlantic wall. Not all were good quality, but a lot were, and it will be tough for the Soviets to perform a Bagaration as by OTL July 44. Without a decisive victory as at OTL Bagartion the Red Army will be bogged down for good.

Anyway in OTL Stalin apparently put pressure on the W.allies by indicating, that if they didn't give higher priority to fighting Germany, he might have to make a separate peace. In this ATL there is no chance of a second front in any near future.

In that context it is just a small detail if it is Hitler and Stalin that are in command, if neither can win they will have to accept that fact or be replaced - the result is pretty much the same.

Regards

Steffen Redbeard

 

[BlondieBC]

A few months after Pearl Harbor when another U.S. ship gets sunk by a U-Boat it gets played up and FDR will have the votes for war.

But, he likely won't have the support in the country for a Germany first strategy without Germany declaring war first.

Agreed on time frame, FDR was too talent for it to go much over 4-5 months.

FDR still will do a Germany first, just not as strong a Germany first. It might be a 20/80 Japan/Germany not the "10/90" of OTL.

A Germany first strategy doesn't just make strategic sense, a Japan first strategy is very hard to pull off immediately. After 1943 sure but ignoring Germany won't necessarily lead to greater action against Japan.

It can partially be pulled off. The net effect at first will not be huge, but with war with Germany delayed until March 1942, these are the type of actions that might happen.

1) 1-5 more capital ships moved to Pacific, or moved earlier. Now, once the war starts with Germany, it will be reversed, so the effect is temporary. We might see some more Iowa class or Essex classes in the Atlantic, or as new ships become operation, we could see things like the Wasp being transferred back to the Atlantic.

2) Pearl Harbor was screaming for air replacement and reinforcements. The B-17 was supposed to have a naval role. We could see more squadrons of Heavy bombers enter the Pacific theater and never leave.

3) We might see a few more divisions in the Pacific, such as extra units in Hawaii or Australia, or even somewhere radical like Burma. Again, over time, it likely goes back to our force levels. I can see a situation where the USA is defending Australia but more Australian units are in Europe/Africa.

Until war starts with Germany, FDR will be hard pressed politically not to send more units than OTL to the Pacific, and it will take time for him to get back to the force deployment of OTL. For example, if the units assigned to Operation Torch are used in the Pacific, FDR may just wait until more units become operationally ready, instead of pulling a unit from Australia to attack Morocco. It will not be huge, but the timeline in Europe probably runs a few months (1-3) behind OTL until late 43 or 44.

 

[Hkelukka]

I'll just go with the wildcard.

What happens if German-american war never happens, because everything else is covered already.

US would focus exclusively on destroying japan, allowing the commonwealth to focus exclusivly on destroying germany.

Japan falls in 1943 at the latest due to significantly stronger US focus. Germany probably falls 6-12 months earlier than OTL due butterflies.

 

[LongVin]

Interesting thought I just had. How does the situation in North Africa change without Torch?

Will Rommel and Monty just fight themselves to a stalemate there? Or is there a possibility for a German victory without a new front being opened up?

 

[Dilvish]

If the USA is at war with Japan, but not the Euro-Axis, I don't see the US buildup being less than what happened historically.

 

[BlondieBC]

Interesting thought I just had. How does the situation in North Africa change without Torch?

Will Rommel and Monty just fight themselves to a stalemate there? Or is there a possibility for a German victory without a new front being opened up?

Stalemate, followed by Torch like operation happening in 1943. Now it may butterfly Italy away if the TL is 6 months behind our TL.