How long does general European Peace last without an American Revolution?

This would be a serious conflict with Britain-Hannover, Russia, and Prussia against Austria, France, Ottomans, Spain and likely the Netherlands and even Sweden.
Not the Netherlands (or Sweden I believe). The Netherlands had not been involved in the seven year war and was becomingmore and more neutral. I doubt it would support France in a war over Lorraine. It is more likely they remain outside the war entirely, just like they did in the seven year's war.

Whatever territory the British gain in America, it seems unlikely that Flanders will wind up in the hands of a friendly power. The current owner, Austria, and the two neighbors (Dutch/French) who can lay claim to it through ethnic and linguistic ties are hostile. Britain would seem unlikely to have it ceded to Prussia, or annexed by Hanover. So who gets it assuming a British win? A hostile power holding the ports of Flanders is a direct threat to Britain.
The primary objective for Britain would be that Flanders would not end up French. They would give it to the Netherlands, if they don't want Austria or Spain to have it, but they would be content for Austria to keep it. As the Netherlands would not get involved in the war (assuming France doesn't attack the Netherlands), they would not gain part of it. It is also doubtfull the Dutch would actualy want Belgium.

Flanders BTW is not for Britain to give away. Especialy as I doubt Britain (or any of the British allies) would be able to occupy it.
 
Not the Netherlands (or Sweden I believe). The Netherlands had not been involved in the seven year war and was becomingmore and more neutral. I doubt it would support France in a war over Lorraine. It is more likely they remain outside the war entirely, just like they did in the seven year's war.


The primary objective for Britain would be that Flanders would not end up French. They would give it to the Netherlands, if they don't want Austria or Spain to have it, but they would be content for Austria to keep it. As the Netherlands would not get involved in the war (assuming France doesn't attack the Netherlands), they would not gain part of it. It is also doubtfull the Dutch would actualy want Belgium.

Flanders BTW is not for Britain to give away. Especialy as I doubt Britain (or any of the British allies) would be able to occupy it.
Corsica, not Lorraine.

The Netherlands was becoming resigned to French continental dominance and jealous of Britain's rise to dominance in the colonial and commercial sphere.

Sweden IIRC, had a pro-French government at the time and was being paid substantial subsidies. A naval coalition of France, Spain, Netherlands and Sweden would be a powerful force against the Royal Navy, while Russia would be beset on all sides by the Ottomans, Austrians and Swedes.

Flanders is not Britain's to give away, but they are obsessed with it.
 
I give the French Monarchy 15 years before imploding, tops. Even without the ARW, their finances are bad and getting worse. They're going to have either drastic reform or revolution.

Why would they implode without a war?

The French king would probably have known there was dissent in the American colonies, but he wouldn't have been planning on there being a general revolt in 5 years unless he was psychic.

But the French did expect trouble in the Americas... this is a historical fact, no?
 
I have to agree with Faeelin, they're not going to implode, especially so early, without another war.

A general war in 1768 of the scale outlined above would do the trick though. France would probably fall apart well before Napoleon was in a position to anything. If the war goes badly enough for France, Corsica might not even be French when the Revolution happens.
 
Corsica, not Lorraine.

The Netherlands was becoming resigned to French continental dominance and jealous of Britain's rise to dominance in the colonial and commercial sphere.

Sweden IIRC, had a pro-French government at the time and was being paid substantial subsidies. A naval coalition of France, Spain, Netherlands and Sweden would be a powerful force against the Royal Navy, while Russia would be beset on all sides by the Ottomans, Austrians and Swedes.

Flanders is not Britain's to give away, but they are obsessed with it.
Although the Netherlands was drifting away from Britain, they were not drifting towards France. France has always (well since their independence from Spain it was) been the major threat for the Netherlands. The Netherlands was drifting towards neutrality and just before the American Revolution (in which they were stupidly involved) they wanted to join a league of neutral nations. If a war between Britain and France occurs, the Netherlands will most likely be neutral, although lots of it depends on the internal politics of the Netherlands, which were quite chaotic at the time. Also it depends on wether France or Britain does something that directly threatens the Netherlands or Dutch interests (like attacking them), although even when the French attacked a Dutch trading post in India during the 7 year war, the Netherlands remained neutral.
 
Although the Netherlands was drifting away from Britain, they were not drifting towards France. France has always (well since their independence from Spain it was) been the major threat for the Netherlands. The Netherlands was drifting towards neutrality and just before the American Revolution (in which they were stupidly involved) they wanted to join a league of neutral nations. If a war between Britain and France occurs, the Netherlands will most likely be neutral, although lots of it depends on the internal politics of the Netherlands, which were quite chaotic at the time. Also it depends on wether France or Britain does something that directly threatens the Netherlands or Dutch interests (like attacking them), although even when the French attacked a Dutch trading post in India during the 7 year war, the Netherlands remained neutral.
There was a pro-French party of Oligarchs in the Estates General, and as you said the Netherlands did declare war on Britain in 1780. I certainly don't think it's impluasible they could become involved in a general war in 1768.
 
Why would they implode without a war?

Their finances would still be in terrible shape, war or no war. Perhaps no war would have given them the time to make the necessary changes to avoid implosion, but serious changes to French finances would have still had to be made. Someone around here posted some detailed research they did on the French financial situation a while back, showing how dire it was getting, but I'll have to do some digging to find it.

But the French did expect trouble in the Americas... this is a historical fact, no?

Yeah, but it would have been a poor move to actually plan things around a revolt happening in the next five years, unless the guy was psychic. Anyway, if Louis thought the British empire was divided, why would that encourage him to back away from a war?
 
There was a pro-French party of Oligarchs in the Estates General, and as you said the Netherlands did declare war on Britain in 1780. I certainly don't think it's impluasible they could become involved in a general war in 1768.
I don't consider it impossible, but I do consider it unlikely. Especialy if it would be a European war. Mind you, i think it would be extremely stupid for the Netherlands to get involved. They can only lose.
 
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